Friday, January 15, 2016

Worst First 2-Weeks Ever

  • What do we make of the stock market collapse early in 2016? Is this the beginning of a recession? Is this the end of Batman?
  • Seriously, it’s not fun to watch the portfolio go down… down… down.  This is the worst “first two week start” of a year ever!  The Dow and the S&P 500 are both down 8.2 percent since the beginning of the year. The Nasdaq is down 10.4 percent.”
  • The opening rallies are sold off.  The high-beta stocks are falling.  Have you seen biotechs?




  • Yay! Utilities!
  • I’ve been caught long and flat-footed.  I don’t like to sell AFTER a 10% decline (or worse in some names).  I guess I just continue to add, hope, pray, and watch political debates, playoffs, and Netflix.
  • (Say, Jessica Jones is very good).
  • It seemed initially as if the financial folks were trying their best to pick a bottom.  Now, they’re trying to get out of the way of a further decline.  It seems as if we need more bearish sentiment and “get out on any move up” kind of sentiment, before a bottom shows up.
  • (This is where I normally insert a picture of a bottom. You know.)
  • Recession… Bear Market Fears.
  • So there’s declining oil.  Oil is flooding the market.  Way too much supply.  We always thought cheap gasoline would help consumers, but retail numbers don’t show that.  Are folks saving?  Paying off bills?  Paying more for health care and student loan debt?
  • Anyway, it’s a long weekend.  More later…

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