Saturday, January 02, 2016

Fox Business Block Gurus Update – 2015 Final! UPDATED

imageHere how the Fox Business Block gurus performed compared to the indices (excluding dividends).  This return is based on investing $1000 per weekly stock pick at the closing price Friday night.  The stock picks started 01/03/2015 through the 12/26/2015 picks, versus dollar cost averaging into the index ETFs during the same time period.

We have a back-to-back winner!  Gary Kaltbaum repeats!  But he barely came out in the green in a flat 2015 market.  Only the QQQ index outperformed.  Gary K. is not a weekly participant. He made 11 stock picks for 2015.  Gary B Smith again finishes in second place.  Repeating what I said last year, it doesn't surprise me to see Gary B. Smith and Gary Kaltbaum near the top of the list.  I've often thought that those two seem to be the most consistent. 

** Edit ** - Scott Martin made 4 stock picks on Bulls and Bears in 2015 and had a total return of 7.65%, as noted in the Part 2 post.  He should be the winner absent a rule on minimum stock picks to be eligible.  I don't want to modify this entire post, though.  But kudos to Scott for beating not just the other gurus, but the index tickers as well!

Near the bottom of the list is Wayne Rogers.  As you may have heard, Wayne just passed away.  Wayne hadn’t made any stock picks since early November.  In addition, the Cashin’ In show has relegated the picks of Rogers and Jonathan Hoenig to the Fox web site, while the show discusses non-stop politics on a weekly basis.  I haven’t watched the January 2nd episode, yet.  Will see what they say regarding Wayne and any changes to the show line-up.

As you can see in the graphic, most of the gurus underperformed dollar cost averaging into the major index in 2015.  The index did hold up better than the majority of stocks.  This is most likely because of the weightings of stocks in the index trackers.  Small caps and emerging markets performed poorly in 2015.

Ben Stein and Adam Lashinsky tend to pick stocks, ETFs, or funds that track a market index or are at least widely diversified.  And they’re in the middle of the pack.

Charles Payne "tends to" pick volatile stocks.  As the market trends strongly in one direction or another, his picks have a little extra beta to the upside or downside.  Another poor year for Charles.
Larry Glazer made one pick:  XOM.  The stock was down 16% from when he picked it.  I should consider deleting Larry from the list.  I think last year was the same story, with Ford as his pick.  LOL!

The Forbes on Fox gang also in the middle of the pack.  What I do like about their stock picking segment of the show is that they give a little more analysis of why they’re picking each stock.  Not that this lead to better performance, but at least you get some of the thought process.

That also points out that these stock picks are made without any future guidance.  Once you buy, there is no advice to sell or buy more.  The shows do have an occasional “follow up” show that goes over the best and worst picks for each guru, and what they’d do with that one or two picks going forward.

How did the shows do compared to each other?

Congratulations to Bulls and Bears for coming out on top!  Collectively, the picks underperfomed the index (SPY). 

On to 2016!  Good luck to all of the Fox gurus!

blog comments powered by Disqus