Sunday, December 07, 2014

Disney, McDonalds, Market Thoughts and Sci Fi

  • image Still long stocks heading into year end. While it seems like many are talking about high valuations and the aging bull market, many are also talking about upbeat economic news such as Friday’s jobs report.  Jobs do tend to pick up later in an economic recovery, but that isn’t the same as ringing the bell at the top tick of the market.
  • Assessing the fallout from the fall in oil pricesEnergy earnings expectations have continued to crater. On Monday, the fourth-quarter estimate was for a year-over-year decline of 11.2 percent for S&P energy stocks. By Friday, that had dropped to 14.7 percent decline.  I think a lot of people are trying to pick the bottom in oil stocks.  Be careful!
  • Anyway, while I am long stocks I was hoping for a pullback to get more aggressive in high flying names.  That hasn’t happened.
  • Which Was a Better Sci-Fi Film: Big Hero 6 or Interstellar?  Hmm…  (I haven’t watched either film).  But it’s hard not to like Disney stock - $DIS.  I do own that one.  Heck, they just raised their dividend by 34%! "Disney delivered the highest results in its history in Fiscal 2014, reflecting the extraordinary quality of our creative content and the unparalleled strength of our brands," said CEO Robert Iger.
  • I do like Sci-Fi films.  I saw “Man of Steel” over the weekend on cable, and thought the combination of superhero and spaceships was cool. Now, I did go in with low expectations, and that helps, too.
  • The Dow and SP500 made new highs last week, by the way.  The bull market marches forward.  Do you see a reason to sell before year end?  I don’t.  Heck, the Fed speaks on the 17th and at some point folks will worry about rising interest rates.  But I don’t think the Fed will ruin Christmas.
  • $MCD – McDonalds trying a “Create Your Taste” program, where customers can order and customize their burgers from tablet-like kiosks instead of ordering from the counter.  Hmm… Well, facing competition and declining sales, the company was bound to try something.  (Long $MCD).
  • I saw that some firm updated their price target on Facebook $FB to $105.  Heck, I’m still targeting $1000!  (It will just take a bit longer).

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