Thursday, January 31, 2013

US Payrolls Eve

image$$ – Excellent use of the word “tenterhooks” in this article, as China’s PMI disappoints and US payrolls in the on-deck circle for Friday morning.

China's official purchasing managers' index (PMI) eased to 50.4 in January, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday, missing market expectations for a rise and underscoring the fragility of the recovery from the economy's weakest year since 1999.

So, Chinese data is mixed.  The US GDP was in the red in the 4th quarter of 2012.  Mixed data all around…

Will the January Effect Work in 2013?

image$$ – Will the January Effect work in 2013? As goes January, so goes the year – or so the saying goes.  Is this going to be true in 2013? 

But 2013 is shaping up as anything but a typical year, and market bulls depending on this trend do so in the face of a slew of obstacles against such dramatic moves higher.

You know, this is the third trip up over 1500 for the SP500.  Maybe too many folks are expecting the secular bear market to continue.  The 2000-3 and 2007-9 bear markets crushed a lot of investors, and may be setting the tone here in 2013 as we approach previous market highs.

Everyone is Expecting a Market Crash These Days


$$ – Everyone is expecting a market crash these days.  Marc Faber at the plate!

“When you print money, the money doesn’t flow evenly into an economy. It flows to some people or to sectors first, and in this case, it flowed into equities, and until about five months ago, bonds,” Faber said. “I believe that markets will punish central banks at some stage through an accident.”

By the way, historically February isn’t a good month after the election year.


What's your price target for $RIMM - research in motion? Or is it $BBRY?  $0?  Can this company really compete against an Apple iPhone or an android phone? 

Are "patents" the only thing that they have to offer?

BlackBerry's Big Makeover Is Almost Complete -- but Will It Matter? | Jan 31, 2013

Filed under: Research In Motion, Industry News BlackBerry (RIMM) has a new mobile operating system, product line, and corporate identity. Come Monday...

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A Beer Mega Empire

Shared Pulse Article A beer mega empire could not be good for consumers. We demand free markets of beer!

U.S. challenges Anheuser-Busch InBev's purchase of Grupo Modelo

Reuters: Business News | Jan 31, 2013

AB InBev says to vigorously contest DOJ challenge to Modelo buy 11:09a...

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Market Looks Tired!

Why not a Bullish call on $AAPL? I suppose we will hear this all the way down - unless something changes. I'm not sure a 128-gig iPad is it, though.

The market looks tired. And acts tired. It is the monthly strength period. The market came in to this week overbought and now looks toppy. It could be the pause that refreshes, but January has been about a 7% rip. I'd expect a little cooling before the next advance.

Anyway, not doing much about it. 100% long. Still.

Monday, January 28, 2013

Is $AAPL Stock a Bargain?

Is $AAPL stock a bargain? I remember back before the last bear markets, how the leaders were defended most of the way down. At least until the drumbeat of "Dow 3000" was so loud that nobody wanted to buy anything. Here was have the stock everyone was in love with just a few months ago, Apple, and as the market has rallied, the stock has held the Nasdaq and NDX back. The stock fell below the 50dma and bounced and tested it a few times before falling to lower prices.


The first bounce or so was met with optimism, but less and less as the failed attempts went to lower prices and then to a slower-growth earnings report last week.

Along the way, we've heard from folks who think that Apple is a buy and that valuations are ridiculous for the company that has more cash on the sidelines than they know what to do with and continues to sell iPhones and iPads faster than they can make them.

Although, have you noticed how you can buy Apple products almost anywhere these days? Reminds me of Krispy Kreme donuts in their heyday. From exclusivity to every sales counter in town. Those were some tasty donuts in their day.

My thoughts? If AAPL can't rally when everyone is bullish, what happens when the eventual overall market correction happens? I think the company needs a positive surprise, in either growth, innovation, or both.




Yahoo jumps 5% on earnings beat

I think $YHOO lost their edge after the 1990's against $GOOG and failed to innovate.  Yahoo had the site hits and eyeballs, but lost the edge in Search.  The search engine turned out to be the winning theme, along with social content.  Instead, Yahoo seemed to be more of a content aggregator.

I remember, back in the day, when Yahoo was my home page!

Nice to see a jump after hours in Yahoo.  Just for old times sake.

I'm still 100% long and thinking the market hasn't quit going up just yet.  But soon.  

Yahoo jumps 5% on earnings beat

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$AAPL Lifts Nasdaq

image$AAPL lifts Nasdaq – I wonder how many more times we will see this headline, where Apple is leading the Nasdaq up?  My fear going forward is that the stock leads the Nasdaq down!

Still 100% long.  Wondering if I should take some chips off the table.  I’m thinking the market should be relatively firm through the “monthly strength” period, but I am worried that February might see a pullback.

Friday, January 25, 2013

SP500 up 8 Days in a Row

$$ - "SP500 up 8 days in a row" usually means market top. How often do these kinds of things happen before the market pulls back? Granted, I swear everyone I heard today on CNBC was saying that they were expecting a pullback of 3-5%, well, shouldn't we get one?

Maybe this isn't "the" market top. The previous 2007 high was 1565 in the SP500.  But February can be a bit rough during the first year after the presidential election.

I'm still long 100%, but watching...

Up, Up and Away: S&P Hits Fresh '07 High in 8-Day Run

FOX Business: Capitalism Lives Here The S&P 500 continued its steady march higher Friday, closing in the green for the eighth day in a row in its lon... Read more

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Thursday, January 24, 2013

Thursday Night Randomosity

  • $$ - By the way, the SP500 has been at these levels twice before: In 2000 and in 2007. In both cases, bear markets followed. Just saying. If the market is in a secular bear market trading range, is the market near the top again?
  • Eventually, even secular bear markets end. Is this the end of the one that started in 2000? I don't think so.
  • Jim Cramer says that investors aren't being fair to Apple - $AAPL. "I could argue that $458 is a good place to step in. It won't trade at six times earnings for long," Cramer said. Jim's on record.
  • So, I think it's the big money moving out of Apple and trying to find the next big growth thing. Something that could be had for $15 a share that goes to $705, like Apple did from the iPod introduction through last Fall.
  • Whoa, these are fighting words here in CA and in the Obama admininstration: Whole Foods co-founder and CEO of Whole Foods Market said global warming isn't really that big of a deal. “I haven’t been outspoken about global warming. I’ve been smeared quite a bit in the media about it – all of a sudden, I’m a climate change denier. I mean, climate change is obviously occurring. So -- it's gotten a little bit warmer. I guess my position on it is that I don't think that's that big a deal. Actually, humanity’s flourished usually when temperatures gradually warmed. And humans gradually adapt to it,” he told Off the Cuff. As for regulation to reduce global warming, he said, “We can probably eliminate poverty on the planet earth in the next 50 years if we will just continue to follow the tenets of free enterprise capitalism to the greatest extent possible. So I just don't want to see that change.


Microsoft's 2Q earnings dip despite Windows 8 lift

$MSFT reported today. Does anyone still care? I had the chance to play with Windows 8 this week.  Bleh.  It kind of sucks, right? Maybe it's a training issue for me, and a little time with a new laptop would resolve the clunkiness that I think the interface is.

I'm sure that's it.

But I was actually thinking about getting a Mac Air next time I am in the market for a laptop.  I still feel a little bit of hesitation moving away from the Windows platform as it is still the workplace standard.

Anyway, Mr Softee moves on...

Microsoft's 2Q earnings dip despite Windows 8 lift

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — Microsoft's latest quarterly earnings slipped, even as the world's largest software maker showed modest progress adapting to a s... Read more

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Netflix stock soars 42 pct

$NFLX soars 42% - lol.  Wow.  I've never owned Netflix.  I'm afraid of it as other companies come into competition with online video delivery.  But there have been many folks out bullish recently - kudos and congrats to them.  What a day.

For the record, I am a subscriber and stream about 2-3 movies a week, and watch about 2 DVDs a month.  I rarely go to the movie theaters anymore!

Still won't buy the stock, though.  

Netflix enjoys marquee day as stock soars 42 pct

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — Netflix's rollercoaster ride on Wall Street surged to new heights Thursday. The company's stock climbed $43.60 to close at $146... Read more

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Jobless claims fall to another 5-year low

$$ - I know jobless claims can be volatile, but it is nice to see a better number come in.  Maybe this is why trucking and rail stocks are doing better.  More folks working means more folks buying!


Jobless claims fall to another 5-year low

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Apple Crashes

With $AAPL falling over 10% today, I'm amazed the rest of the market held up.  Over time, I suppose there will be other growth stocks that will come to replace Apple.  It is kind of sad to see the once great growth leader get distributed.  I bet a  lot of folks are losing a lot of money as Apple goes down.

I'm still 100% long, fwiw.  

Apple stock plunges 10%

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Wednesday, January 23, 2013

$AAPL - Apple Report Earnings: Ouch!

$AAPL - Apple zombie apocalypse tomorrow in the markets, as the fruit company's earnings disappoints. This is the stock everyone loved. Everyone had to own. When the stock price hit $705, the chants of "$1000" were deafening.

Oopsie. The stock price dropped over $50 in the after hours. Apple Inc missed Wall Street's revenue forecast for the third straight quarter after iPhone sales came in below expectations, fanning fears that its dominance of the mobile industry was slipping.

Well, the upgrade cycle is slowing down. Who needs to go from a 5 mexapixel camera to an 8 megapixel camera? Now that the iPhone has LTE speed, what's the next real catalyst for an upgrade? And say, isn't the Android hardware better? Apple TV is a flop. What's next? The Mac Books are nice and the Mac Airs are nicer, but do you need that AND an iPad, or is the PC world still, uh, PC centric?

Anyway, tomorrow will be interesting. The NDX has been held hostage by Apple this year. Maybe the price drop will result in new weightings for the index, and something more "growthy" will get higher weightings.


Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Should Phil Mickelson Have Just Shut His Mouth on Taxes?

$$ - Phil Mickelson complained that he was paying 62% to 63% in taxes, and that he'd have to do something about it. He his since modified his comments, but does he make a point that we should be paying attention to?

Think about it. He's one of the "rich" targeted by the Democrats as those who have somehow unfairly gotten wealthy at the expense of the poor and middle class. The Democrats believe that the government should take more money from Mickelson and his "ilk" via higher taxes to pay for services and benefits for those less fortunate.

That's the popular consensus these days, by the way.

Yet, the reaction from the rich and even upper-middle class have been to try and lower their tax burden by relocating to states that have lower tax burdens, or by changing their behavior.

Meanwhile, Mickelson is taking some heat for speaking against taxes. I liked him better before he tried to restate his comments.


The Big Tech Earnings Today

Google and IBM - $GOOG and $IBM, led the tech earnings charge with overall good news. Both stocks moved up nicely after hours, which could mean good things for tomorrow's market open. Of course, if Apple reports that they sold ZERO iPhones in the 4th quarter, Thursday morning will be equally as ugly.

Lots of earnings to go!


Microsoft Surface Pro to Launch Feb 9th

Microsoft - $MSFT to launch the Surface Pro tablet in February for $899, and that's without the keyboard. If a few quarters from now, new Kings/SuperSonics owner Steve Ballmer can't figure out why these things aren't selling while iPads are flying off the shelves, maybe it's the price point.


Bull Market Continues to Make New Highs

$$ - The bull market that started in March 2009, continues on, making more five-year highs. Watch for more signs of increasing optimism as the market moves higher! They should have been bullish when the SP500 hit 666 in 2009, right? Well over 100% gains since then in the index.

We are in the midst of tech earnings. Google and IBM on deck as I type. Those will definitely be market movers. The NDX has underperformed lately, for what it's worth.

Monday, January 21, 2013

We're Going to Need a Bigger Government

We're Going to Need a Bigger Government!

No surprises. I think with the shifting demographics and the dependency on social programs, the country is facing higher taxes, higher deficits, and more government rules and regulations.

This will be a drag in economic growth.

This doesn't mean that this is a problem today. Most folks seem to have the view that government direct involvement in the economy and corporation day to day activities is a good thing. But I think that euphoria wears off when the actual numbers come jn, or as affluent people, businesses and jobs leave the country.

I'm looking at you , Phil Mickelson.

United States of Paranoia

Just sharing something funny from the local yokel.  

United States of Paranoia

The United States of Paranoia Source: Sacramento Bee editorial cartoonist Jack Ohman ... Read more

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Atari Files for Bankruptcy

$ATA.PA: Atari US files for bankruptcy. It seems like only yesterday I had the Atari 2600 video game system...

MLK Jr. Randomosity

  • $$ - Meanwhile, Europe is closing around new highs. What? Aren't they supposed to be in recession, rioting, and financially coming unglued? Well, they are printing money. Seems like that's the cure all!
  • Meanwhile, the Senate Democrats are coming up with a budget - for the first time in 4 years! “I’ve talked to Leader Reid. I’ve talked to Budget Chair Murray. We’re going to do a budget this year and it’s going to have revenues in it and our Republican colleagues better get used to that fact,” according to Charles Schumer (D). "Revenues" is the secret word for "taxes.
  • Meanwhile, on this day in 1966, George Harrison and Patricia Anne Boyd were married. Patty eventually left Harrison for Eric Clapton. "I got my eyes set on you. I got my eyes set on you. I got my eyes set on you. I got my eyes set on you. But it's gonna take money. A whole lotta spending money."
  • Meanwhile, I'm watching the Fox Business channel. Yeah, really. I never watch this channel. Lots of political commentary. But I do like Neil Cavuto and Charles Payne.
  • Meanwhile, the Boeing Dreamliners' batteries may be getting the blame for all the problems. Or at least maybe something with the electrical system. Hey, why not just create an iPhone app to run the whole thing? Battery life on the iPhones is pretty good, right?
  • Meanwhile, the original 1960's series Batmobile sold for $4.6 million. And boy, does it look sweet in my batcave. Yeah, right. I wonder what the mpg is on that thing?
  • Meanwhile, President Obama had his 2nd inauguration today. According to a Fox Business graphic just put up, after one term: Oil up 124%, Gold up 101%, dollar down .4%. They didn't mention the stock market. The SP500 up over 100%, at least since the March 2009 low!


Sunday, January 20, 2013

Apple and Football Randomosity

  • All eyes are on $AAPL, right? The company reports Wednesday. Or so the rumor goes.
  • The thing about Apple, is that the stock is just at $500 after being over $700 not that long ago. There is fear that folks who want an iPhone or iPad, have one and that there isn't enough reason to buy a new one anytime soon. In addition, Android phones have not only closed the gap but may have surpassed the iPhone in capabilities. Finally, Steve Jobs no longer runs the shop.
  • With that said, I know some folks who recently bought Mac Airs. No longer need the traditional PC. So, that speaks to the decline of HP and Dell, right? I will say that I recently played with an HP thin laptop running Windows 8. Seems to me that the asking price is quite a bit less than for Apple products. Just saying.
  • So does Apple need to lower prices?
  • It's going to be tech-tech-tech earnings all week long. You think you'll get tired of Super Bowl hype? This may surpass even that!
  • I was AMAZED at the games today. I thought the winners would be reversed. Atlanta covered, getting 4.5 points but lost the game! The over 49.5 worked, too. The Ravens plus 8 was a winner, but the Patriots lost!
  • This means that my fantasy playoffs season is over AND my playoffs elimination pool is over. Done!
  • By the way, tomorrow is Martin Luther King, Jr day. A good day to read about the man and listen to his speeches. It is also a good time to read the history about that era. That's your homework.
  • Some folks don't get tomorrow off as a holiday. Wall Street is closed.
  • Looks like the Sacramento Kings sale to the Seattle group is in the books.


Friday, January 18, 2013

#202: Market Thoughts and $AAPL

Saturday, January 12, 2013

A Big Contrarian Indicator

image$$ – Are the stock inflows a huge contrarian indicator? The last time the market saw these kinds of inflows was in 2008!

Let’s go back in time, Doc, just five years ago to when the market last saw these kinds of inflows.  Heck, it must be a good thing.  CNBC was talking about how earnings are looking good and that many investors have been on the sidelines and a little frightened by the market.  So it makes sense that it’s time for these investors to get long and ride this market up, right?  Let’s take a look at 2008 via a 5-year chart.


And it just so happens that the stock market is closing in on a long-term trading range high of just over 1500 in the S&P 500.

Just sayin’…

Wednesday, January 09, 2013

Another Good Day Randomosity

  • $AA - Alcoa gets the reason du jour for the stock market move today. Yet, the shares fell a nickel. Yeah, figure that one out. The company gets credit for kicking off earnings season with good news, and their share prices fall.
  • Wall Street had faced the wall of worry, with things like the debt ceiling, European bad news, and potentially a weak retail season over Christmas. But that wasn't today's business.
  • How about those small cap stocks? Whoa, Nellie!
  • I'm still 100% long, with beta. Lots of small stuff and NDX stuff. But the NDX is being weighed down by shares of $AAPL.
  • My thought on Katherine Webb, Brent Musburger (not pictured), and ESPN? First, I agree with Brent on Katherine: Wow. Second, I disagree with ESPN for apologizing. Third, I really applaud for Katherine for saying that this isn't a big deal. It's not even that creepy. Heck, a guy sees a good looking women and loses focus for a second. He was just being honest.
  • By the way, $FB - Facebook, is over $30. Share that! (I guess uploading pictures of my dog once a week is working!)
  • Today was a very cold and foggy day in Sacramento. Granted, it's not North Dakota kind of cold. But for us light-jacket only folks, it chills to the bone!
  • Are the Sacramento Kings being sold and then moving to Seattle? I'm watching the local news and that's all they're talking about. Of course, we've heard this all before. At least the moving the team part.
  • Lakers lose fifth in a row. Ah, the super team...


Tuesday, January 08, 2013

Alcoa Earnings

$$ - Alcoa kicks off earnings season with a nice report.  Hopefully, other companies will follow suit and get this market going again.  The earnings reports will be coming in hot and heavy the next few weeks!

I have split thoughts. On the one hand, I've been out to dinner quite a bit lately and the restaurants are very crowded.  The casinos are also crowded.  So this could mean that folks are spending money because they have it and feel good about the economy.

On the other hand, the increase in Social Security taxes from 4.2% to 6.2% will have a direct impact on consumers.  That's a bunch of money taken from consumers who spend money on stuff they want, and given to the government which spends money on things like global warming research and aid to Pakistan.  In other words, the government misallocates the money.

Just a thought!

Alcoa shares clmb on better-than-expected sales

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