Thursday, April 18, 2013

Stock Market at Interesting Place

  • The SP500 is right at the 50dma. If the market bounces and goes up from here, then one could say this pullback was no big deal as the market is just trending up. I think it would be the third trip down to the 50dma since December. No big deal, right?
  • The market could also be moving up to form a right shoulder on a potential head and shoulders chart pattern. Could be. The timing would be interesting, as the pattern would probably play out in April and then hit the Sell in May seasonal pattern. Just thinking out loud.
  • The market could also be breaking down, and this is just a pause at the 50dma before some catalyst sends the index convincingly lower. Heck, the up days are on low volume and the down days are on high volume. The stocks that are rallying are defensive stocks.
  • Anyway... I'm still in cash. I was watching the 1540 level on the SP500 and almost bought at the close as the market closed just above it. The thought being that if the number holds, then we're right at a place where the market could bounce and continue the uptrend. If not, then I just sell it and take a small loss.
  • But, I didn't. Still in cash.
  • Earnings after the bell were mixed. IBM could be a heavy weight on the Dow tomorrow. But other names like Microsoft, Google, and Chipotle seemed to have done better.

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