Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Beanie on the IR Randomosity

  • $$ - That's a five-day selloff on the SP500. Reason du jour? ...protests in Spain and Greece over euro zone austerity measures raised fresh concerns over Europe's ability to get its debt crisis under control.
  • "Fresh" concerns, eh? Haven't the concerns roughly remained the same? Nobody believes the smoke and mirrors right?
  • Asian markets moving up. US futures up. Hey, it is near the end of the month and quarter, so you'd think the bias would be up.
  • Still in low-beta stuff and cash. I still will probably wait until sometime in October to get more aggressive. Might as well let the Sell in May strategy play out. Maybe it works out after all. LOL.
  • The Federal Reserve is on more than Dancing with the Stars. This one wants 200,000 jobs for 2 consecutive quarters. "I think that would be a good marker - it's a threshold, it's an indication," Chicago Fed President Charles Evans told reporters after a speech in this industrial Chicago suburb. "In combination with (GDP) growth above trend, that would really reinforce and solidify the idea that we are getting substantial improvement."
  • Deal reached in NFL lockout.
  • Beanie Wells on the IR. LOL. So who wants to take a chance on his backup this week in Fantasy Football? Ryan Williams? Hmm.
  • So are the Presidential polls oversampling Democrats? It sounds like Obama is just crushing Romney in all the polls, then you read that the pollsters are oversampling Democrats and using a 2008 model rather than a 2010 model - or some such thing, and Romney is close or leading everywhere. It's going to be interesting.
  • I think Obama crushes Romney on the increase in entitlement demographics.
  • Andy Williams passed away. I remember the Christmas specials on TV.

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Intertouchdownception Randomosity and Market Thoughts

  • $$ - The stock market fell today as the replacement refs said that the Fed's QE3 may not work.
  • Okay, maybe that was Philly Fed head Charles Plosser who said new bond buying announced by the Fed this month probably won’t boost growth or hiring and may jeopardize the central bank’s credibility. Well, it's a good thing that they're doing it then. Good decision.
  • Credibility! snicker
  • Green jobs gone wild: As Tesla Motors, a maker of electric cars, burns through cash and misses production targets, it is turning to investors and taxpayers for extra financial help.
  • It seemed like for a few weeks, we ignored the world's financial problems. They didn't matter as the iPhone 5 was about to be released and central bankers were making it rain.
  • Asian shares and commodities fell on Wednesday as protests in Spain underscored the country's financing challenges and investors refocused on slowing global growth as rallies, fed by major central bank easing measures, faded. But don't fight the Fed!
  • Okay, so here we are heading into month end and quarter end where you'd think the market would see some buying of what's been working. But then today happened. If $AAPL is in trouble, the market is in trouble! The new iPhone 5 sold half as many as the most optimistic projections forecasted. But come on, 5 million phones is a lot of phones.
  • Today was a distribution day, and the Nasdaq led on the downside. We are due for some sort of correction. My gut feeling is that we rally into the end of the week, but isn't everyone thinking that?
  • I remain with some cash on the sidelines and the rest in low beta stuff. I still think I will follow the Sell in May strategy and look to buy sometime in October.

Sunday, September 23, 2012

Sunday NFL Randomosity

  • $$ - Are the Dow transports ($IYT) giving a sell signal? According to the basic version of this theory, if the Dow Jones Transport Average fails to confirm the strength of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the market is headed for a correction. Hey, they were only down 5.4% last week. Wow.
  • 80% of S&P 500 companies forcasting 3rd quarter misses. Eh, wall of worry. Who cares?
  • Eurozone bailout fund up to 2 trillion euros. If the ESM gets approval to use the same leverage techniques as the EFSF, it would have a lending power of around 2 trillion euros without countries having to contribute any more capital to the fund. I like not having to contribute more yet having way more euros. I'm sure everything will work out fine.
  • NFL surprises... Vikings over 49ers. Atlanta smoking San Diego in San Diego. And Arizona the last two weeks. Hey, they're better than anyone thought.
  • I said it on the podcast, but I think Obama is going to clobber Romney in November. Just a feeling. But I think it's the growth of the entitlement demographics and a shrinking of those participating in the labor force.
  • Barron's cover has $FB at $15. Hmm...
  • Oh, and the Lions going for it on 4th down in overtime. What was that?
  • So, I'm still in low beta stocks with some cash. I get the feeling that a big market correction is coming, but then there's the don't fight the Fed thing. I guess I'll wait a few more weeks before making a decision on what to do about the failure of Sell in May this year.

Saturday, September 22, 2012

#190: Stock Market Thoughts, Barron's, and the Presidential Election

Friday, September 21, 2012

Jobless Rate Rises in 26 States

$$ - Jobless rate rises. Hey, we need to reduce the number of people looking for work to get these unemployment numbers down!

NFL Week 3 Picks Against the Spread

Thursday, September 20, 2012

Market Thoughts

$$ - The market continues to act well - sorta. Dow Theory be damned as the transports crashed and continue to underperform as the market rests near highs last seen in 2007. Despite the selloff early on, the market rallied late. The economic news continues to suck. Countries around the world are printing money and trying to stimulate their economies.  

Not much change in my portfolio. I still have cash and low beta stuff. Pondering what to do about the failure of sell in May this year. Dollar cost average back in or wait until October? I don't feel like chasing things right now, but there is an emotional tug to get back in because I'm "missing it." (The rally... even though I am participating in lower beta things).

Did I hear that the Fed is buying the majority of the US debt now? And if they didn't, interest rates would need to go up to attract buyers? At least that's what's on the other part of the Mitt Romney secret video that the media isn't playing.


Oh, and the issue with the European debt relief fund is that nobody wants to make a deposit in it. And many countries would have to borrow money and create more debt to put money in a debt relief fund.

Crazy. Wasn't that a plot of a Three Stooges video? Larry tried to borrow money from a relief fund that Moe refused to fund while Curly tried to eat oyster soup?


Anyway, wall of worry. The market is strong and everyone is telling us not to fight the Fed and we have to be long because the end result of money falling from the skies is higher stock prices. And 16,000 layoffs at $BAC. Ah, never mind. Asset prices have to increase with all this money being invented, right?


The polls have Obama up. I mean Romney up. I mean it's a tie. I mean, no, it's up to Ohio to figure out who will be the next President so why does the rest of the country even follow the election?

Well, maybe the rest of the country is in line for the iPhone 5 and NOT paying attention to the election!



I have a new job and I took last week off, so that's why things have been sparse around these parts. More tomorrow. And football picks, too!

Sunday, September 16, 2012

China’s Stocks Drop

$$ - While US investors are climbing over each other to buy stocks, China is struggling a bit.  The US is easing and stimulating to fight slow growth, while China's growth is slowing and there hasn't been any indication that China won't ease monetary policy to help.

China's Stocks Drop Most This Month on Policy, Growth Concerns
China's stocks fell the most this month on speculation the government won't ease monetary policy as quickly as anticipated and after Citigroup Inc. s... Read more

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Saturday, September 15, 2012

NFL Week 2 Picks Against the Spread

Thursday, September 13, 2012

Dow Closes at Highest Level Since 2007

$$ - The Fed stimulates and the market rallies. Don't fight the Fed.  Lets call Sell in May dead and admit that the most likely move is that the markets will go higher.  It seems as if we will see those areas that get stimulated by cheap money rally.  That means banks will be able to profit.  Housing maybe.  Definitely a weaker dollar helps gold and commodities.

And of course, Apple - $AAPL.  Gotta have an iPhone 5.

So I'm still in low beta stuff and some cash.  Since the market has rallied so strongly, I'll probably wait it out through October and then look to add money in and get more aggressive.  Just in case we do get a Sept-Oct pullback.  No matter how unlikely it seems that the market will go down against this next round of Fed stimulus

Dow Closes at Highest Level Since 2007 on Fed Stimulus News

Filed under: Market News NEW YORK -- The stock market staged a huge rally after investors got the aggressive economic help they wanted from the Fede... Read more

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Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Stock Market Thoughts and Randomosity

  • $$ - The stock market is just waiting for Big Ben Bernanke now that $AAPL - Apple iPhone 5 news is out of the way. The market has had a nice run, and everyone seems to be expecting Bernanke to continue to try to stimulate the economy with whatever it is the Fed is doing. (Er, wrecking the currency).
  • I'm not sure what to say at this point. Everyone seems to be a contrarian and expects the market to slaughter the bulls. Those who are bearish aren't shorting stocks, they're going long gold in anticipation the Fed is going to weaken the dollar some more by QE3ing until the cows come home.
  • What can we make of that?
  • Anyway, everyone seems convinced that the market is about to surge higher. Maybe it will. I remain in low beta stuff with some cash. Even as the market inches higher and is singing a siren call to buy, buy, buy!
  • I haven't been running my stock scans while I'm on vacation. I may trade some Friday when I'm home. I don't know. I'm really interested in what happens tomorrow with Bernanke. Should be fun to watch. I guess my gut feeling is that the market surges. It seems like the market wants more money, and if the Fed is going to grease the skids, happy days, right Fonzy?
  • Last day of vacation. Heading back home tomorrow. Beach. Beach. Beach. Been fun down here in SoCal.
  • The violence in the Middle East is horrible, but not unexpected. We all know what we're dealing with over there. I don't like to wax too political here, but I really wish we'd quit supporting those countries and buying their oil. Seems to be the best strategy is to cut off their money supply and aid. Lets get our oil from other places including right here.
  • Dodgers are free falling, Tom Petty.
  • I'm going against the Dolphins every week this week in the NFL pick'em pool and weighing the pick the highest one on the board. They can't score and Tannehill will be throwing picks like his life depends on it.

Thoughts on AAPL iPhone 5

$$ - Here are my thoughts on the $AAPL - Apple iPhone 5: I'm going to get one! 

The battery life, LTE, and bigger screen. That's why. Plus, the quality of these things blows Androids away.


I was paying attention to the release on the iPad via streaming updates... LOL.


Stock price has already moved up in anticipation. Hard to say what it will do going forward. A lot of that depends on the market in general, Ben Bernanke, events in the Middle East, Europe's Central Bank, etc.

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Thoughts While On Vacation

$$ - I'm on vacation this week, but watching stocks somewhat closely. The market seems ready to move up and from I read, the contrarian play is the next leg up in the bull market. $AAPL - Apple launches their iPhone 5 tomorrow and Ben Bernanke launches QE3 on Thursday. Everything is looking up and there are no clouds in the sky.I remain positioned in low beta stuff and cash. I'm not buying the melt up contrarian play, because that's all I ever read about. Is it really the contrarian play when everyone says it's the contrarian play? We ALL know about the gloom and doom on the wall of worry, but does anyone really care? I know there are some gold chasers who care, but I'm not seeing or reading about people shorting stocks here.

Anyway, I'm interested in the new iPhone. I'm not sure if there are going to be any major improvements, but adding 4G speed would be one for me. If they don't add that, I'm not getting one.


In SoCal... I think the Dodgers season is down the drain. Maybe the Dodgers are the true contrarian play.

Saturday, September 08, 2012

Are the Rich Getting Richer?

$$ - Are the rich getting richer? Jay Leno takes 50% pay cut.  Are you better off than you were four years ago, Jay?

Jay Leno takes a 50% pay cut

The late-night star agreed to the reduction amid a round of budget cuts at The Tonight Show... Read more

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Friday, September 07, 2012

Pandora Shares Plunge on Apple Fears

Pandora $P falls about 17 percent on news that Apple $APPL may enter the streaming music market. So Apple has decided that they want to take on more music services because a lot of folks are streaming music off the web instead of buying songs from iTunes. Cloud storage has become the wave of the future an apple want to make sure that they are part of that

In addition to Pandora, maybe XM radio is in trouble too.  There are apps currently out on the iPhone where you can stream radio stations, podcasts or other content to your stereo.  I'm looking at you Tunein.

Pandora Shares Plunge on Apple Fears

By Alexandra Scaggs And John Letzing Shares of Pandora Media Inc. tumbled Friday, following news that Apple Inc... read more


NFL Picks against the spread- Week 1

#189: Jobs, Obama, $AAPL - Apple, $FB - Facebook, $AMZN - Amazon

Economy Adds 96K Jobs

$$ - Disappointing jobs numbers this morning, as the economy adds 96K jobs. The unemployment rate fell to 8.1%, but only because more people quit looking for work.  The labor participation rate fell to levels last seen in 1981.
Overall, this is bad economic news. Yes, it means that Fed action next week is more likely, but it will be interesting to see if any new stimulus is added ahead of the election.  The Fed usually likes to do nothing in the months ahead of the elections.
Not doing any trading today. The market is basically flat today after yesterday's huge surge.  This is overall bullish.  Investors Intelligence bearishness was only at 24.5% this week, and with the move up in the markets one would think that there will be fewer and fewer bears going forward.
Romney slamming Obama for the bad jobs numbers.  Obama saying it's another positive step forward.

Payroll Day Blues: Economy Adds Just 96K Jobs

Sandy Huffaker—Getty Images Current and former military personnel stand in line for interviews at the Opportunity Job Fair on Sept... Read more

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Thursday, September 06, 2012

August Private-Sector Jobs Up 201,000

$$ - The stuff that matters most. Jobs! 201,000 jobs created in August. The number came in above expectations and shows that maybe things aren't slowing down as much as thought, or even that things are growing faster than thought.
Of course, this would also encourage the Fed to sit on their hands next week. My guess is that is their preference ahead of the election anyway.  
But good news.  Private sector jobs up.

ADP: August Private-Sector Jobs Up 201,000, Well Above Expectations

Private businesses added many more workers than expected in August, according to a report released Wednesday.Private-sector jobs in the U.S. increased... Read more

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Amazon Unveils New Kindle Tablets

$$ - Today's big tech news is new Amazon - $AMZN Kindle tablets. I have to say they look interesting.  I don't know if they're hamstrung by a clunky interface sitting on top of Android, but the blogs and twitter are championing the new tablets.
My thoughts? Not an iPad killer.  At $499 for an LTE Kindle Fire, even with a $50/yr. 250meg a month data plan, it still falls a little short.  That's not enough data to do much with.  The $199 model may do much better and eat into Nexus 7 sales.  
But the iPad mini is rumored to come out soon, which may be the small tablet to have.
I would imagine this will put a ton of pressure on the Microsoft Surface, though.
Amazon Unveils New Kindle Tablets

By Greg Bensinger Inc... Read more

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Stocks Rally!

$$ - Wow, nice rally on the market as the cup and handle patterns play out.  SP500 at levels last seen in May 2007 and the Nasdaq since November 2000.
Better economic news has been trickling in recently, and today it was an upbeat jobs report.  The ECB also planned to spend whatever it takes to save the Euro.
I've been wrong about where the market is heading for a few months after cashing out and lowering beta ahead of summer.  It looked brilliant after May's decline, but the market has recovered since then and made new highs.  So, while the low-beta stuff has actually done quite well, the cash is flat as the market surges.  
Now, I'm left trying to figure out next steps. I don't feel like chasing the rally.  We shall see what tomorrow brings with the unemployment numbers.  Next week is Apple's iPhone 5 and the Fed announcement.
With the recent economic data and rally in stocks, I don't think the Fed will do anything.

Stocks rally on jobs reports and ECB plan

Dow gains over 200 points, after upbeat job reports and ECB bond-buying announcement... Read more

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Wednesday, September 05, 2012

Warren Buffett Likes Energy

$$ - If Warren Buffett likes energy, should you? My thought is that he always seems to get a better deal that the individual investor can.  And buying the day the headline hits is dangerous.  It seems like there is a bump, then a dip later.  But that's just what I think I've seen - actual results may vary.
For the record, I like oil.  The world runs on oil, not solar or wind.  Oil is the fuel we use.  And it seems that here in the US, we're doing everything we can to limit the supply of oil.  This is while economies seem to be growing slowly and central banks are flooding the markets with money.  Then there's the middle east and eventual tensions with Iran.
That's why I like oil.  But not because Warren Buffett likes energy.  Maybe this is the one time I got in before Buffett - lol.

Warren Buffett Likes Energy. So Should You.

Already owning a large position in energy giant **ConocoPhillips**, Warren Buffett recently added to his position in oil refiner **Phillips 66 **and o... Read more

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Stocks Flat

$$ - So we have FedEx - $FDX, issue a profit warning. Good news or bad news? Well, on the one hand it's a sign that the economy is slowing.  After all, UPS issued a similar warning not long ago.  Is this a sign that the US consumer is ordering less stuff?
On the other hand, it's a sign that the Fed will stimulate the economy again!
Is bad news good news?
That's the debate.  Meanwhile things do seem to be a bit slower as the market is near the yearly highs. Investors Intelligence sentiment shows that there are 51% bulls and 24.5% bears, so the argument that everyone is bearish seems a bit shallow.
I remain with a large cash position and low beta stuff.  I believe we're not out of the woods and are still in the sell in may period.  Maybe it works out or maybe the market goes to the moon.  We have ECB news out tomorrow, as well as jobs data to close out the week.
And NFL tonight... And so, fantasy football begins again.
Everyone picked up NY Giants RB Dave Wilson, right?
Stocks barely move; FedEx sinks on profit warning

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stock prices are closing mixed, held in check by a warning from the huge package delivery company FedEx that its profits would b... Read more

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Saturday, September 01, 2012

Saturday Night Randomosity

  • $$ - Remember when Greenspan was the leader of the Feds, and all we had was speculation and complicated statements to parse? And the "briefcase indicator?" Now we get so much transparency, we can't make heads or tails of it. Everyday the Feds are releasing statements and commenting on Fed policy. And they're all over the map!
  • Today was the first Saturday of NCAA football. Everyone playing their tune-up games... Alabama crushing Michigan.
  • It's September. That means football but also a new $AAPL iphone 5! So we're getting the same old stories about how suppliers are struggling to make, uh, supplies, and will have trouble making deadlines, etc. Happens every year. Anyway, September 12th.
  • ECB bond purchase plan is short on details. Is it really? Isn't the plan "Hey, Germany! Give us some money!"
  • The Republican convention ended with a pretty good speech from Mitt Romney. Clint Eastwood getting mixed reviews for his interview with an empty chair. Marco Rubio was very good. The Democrats spent the last week calling Republicans liars and racists.
  • On deck, the Democratic convention. I will try to watch it.
  • Sometimes, I am ready to do an audioboo or podcast, but then a few days go by and the notes get stale.
  • $AMZN planning an ad supported tablet. FAIL. "You must wait 15 seconds before you can turn the page in your book." No thanks.

Stocks Rally After Bernanke

$$ - Okay, so Thursday's decline was basically erased today after Bernanke said (again!) that the Fed was ready to do whatever.
Surprise, surprise.
For the month of August, the Nasdaq led and was up 4%. The SP500 was up 2%, and the Dow was up .6%.  The risk-on trade was on!
It's the end of August and beginning of a new month.  Usually, the market is stronger as money gets dollar-cost averaged into mutual funds.
It's a 3-day weekend.  Enjoy!
I started off at the local Indian Casino and LOST!  Ouch!


Dow rallies 90 points after Fed chairman's speech

> Stocks closed Friday with a solid gain and up for the month of August after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank sta... Read more

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