Friday, June 29, 2012

#177: Stocks Surge on Euro Deal; Obamacare; Ford; Electronic Arts

Stocks, Euro, and Oil Jump!

Yeah, the market stormed higher today! $$ 

If you missed the gap opening, too bad.  Today's market stormed out of the gates on the "euro deal" reason du jour.  Yes, I guess it's going to rain free cash in Europe.  Although, if you read some analysis, the devil will ultimately be in the details.

But that wasn't today's business.

In addition, today is the last day of the 2nd quarter and end of the month.  Sometimes we see some "piling in" to the winners and stocks most heavily weighted in the indexes.

On the other hand, sometimes the biggest rallies happen when the market is in a down trend.  

I remain mostly in cash and low-beta stuff.  I still think the 2012 summer theme is "trading range."  I certainly missed a chance to get in near the bottom of the range this week, but I think we'll be back down again.  This year looks eerily similar to last year. 

There is a holiday in the middle of next week, and lots of folks will be on vacation.  Yet, there will be some major economic news and maybe more details on the Euro details.  Plus, earnings season is around the corner - again!

Stocks, Euro Jump While Oil Posts Best Gain Since 2009

Global stocks and the euro surged the most this year, oil had its biggest gain since 2009 and Spanish bonds rallied after European leaders reached an... Read more

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Tom Cruise & Katie Holmes Divorce!

Hey Dawson! Hey Pacey! Katie Holmes is available! 

(Just taking a break from stock market and Obamacare...) 

Who didn't love Katie Holmes on Dawson's Creek?  Like every love triangle, I always wished the 2nd place guy would just move along to the next girl.  Michelle Williams wasn't exactly chopped liver, ya know?

(Yes, I watched Dawson's Creek - lol).

Was there a pre-nup in this marriage?  How do the financial arrangements work out?  I'd think he's made a bunch more money than she has over the years.  Get out the check book, Tom!

Tom Cruise & Katie Holmes Divorce: How It Will Affect Suri — Expert

Temper tantrums, acting up in school -- our expert tells us that Suri may face a host of issues now that she's a child of divorce. After **Tom Cruise... Read more

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Thursday, June 28, 2012

Economy Expands at 1.9% and Quarter End

Lost in the Obamacare vote news was the 1.9% GDP rate in the first quarter. $$ 

The economy just slugs on.  It's much slower than it needs to be.  There doesn't seem to be any catalysts out there other than the status quo.  Is the status quo a catalyst?

I think the gap down and most of the day was because of poor economic news.  Even if the market bounced in a big way after the Euro-Zone accord news.  (And looks like it will open big on Friday, too).

Also remember that this is the end of the quarter and month, so there could be some market strength as the big money positions portfolios for quarter-end reports.

Economy Expands at 1.9% Clip in First Quarter

The U.S. economy slowed as expected in the first quarter, but a less robust pace of consumer spending and export growth than previously estimated cou... Read more

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High Court Backs Obama

When is the first Mega Tea Party Rally? 

You have to think that if this doesn't mobilize the GOP base and even the Independents for Romney, nothing will.

High Court Backs Obama on Health Law

By Jess Bravin And Louise Radnofsky WASHINGTON—Chief Justice John Roberts joined the Supreme Court's four liberals Thursday to uphold the... Read more

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Euro-Zone Accord

Looks like the US Market futures are up, too. $$ 

Hey, looks like there may be some new shiny credit cards being handed out in the Euro-Zone!

Euro-Zone Accord Spurs Asia Markets
By Daniel Inman Markets surged in Asia on Friday as investors cheered the agreement by European leaders that the region's permanent bailout... Read more

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#176: Thoughts on the Supreme Court and Obamacare; Stocks Reverse; Europe

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

#175: Market Reclaims Lost Ground; Europe; More Dodgers; Google Nexus 7

#174: Market Thoughts, Facebook, Europe, Dodgers!

Friday, June 22, 2012

Stocks Rebound as Eurozone Fears Ease

$$ - Remember yesterday, when the market fell over 200 points and everyone was worried about Europe?

That was so June 21st, 2012.  Back then, people were talking about how the Miami Heat beat the OKC Thunder in the NBA finals and how the Oakland A's swept the LA Dodgers three games straight.

Seems like a lifetime ago.  

Today's a new day.  No worries.  Dow up 67 and Nasdaq up 33.

Party on!

Thursday, June 21, 2012

The Big Bad Sell Off

Whoa Nellie, quite the sell off on Wall Street today! Just look at the market sectors: $$

Who saw that coming?

Of course, we do have a reason du jour:

Stocks posted the worst day in three weeks on Thursday on mounting evidence that slowing manufacturing growth worldwide threatened corporate profits.


Stocks' slide was accelerated by a bearish call from Goldman Sachs, which recommended clients build short positions in the broad S&P 500 index on expectations of more economic weakness.

And if that wasn't enough, Credit Suisse decided to get some of the action:
Credit Suisse Group AG's credit rating was cut three levels by Moody's Investors Service, Morgan Stanley was reduced two levels and 13 other banks were downgraded in moves that may shake up competition among Wall Street's biggest firms.
So there you have it.

Haven't had time to run scans. This could be just a one-day wonder in the scheme of a summer rally, or we could just be in a summer trading range during the "unfavorable season" of the market. You know where I stand - cash and low beta stuff. I believe this is just another Spring-Summer correction, and that there will be a chance to get back in near the bottom of the trading range in Sept-Oct timeframe.

Wednesday, June 20, 2012


Yeah, well Bernanke said BLAH BLAH BLAH. $$

It seems as everyone was expecting a rally or crash after the Fed.  So, we got neither.  I suppose that’s the market frustrating everyone except those very few who expected absolutely nothing after the Fed decree.

Sorry for the lack of blogging and audiobooing lately.  It’s summer. I’ve been on vacation here and there.  I’m not doing much in the stock market.  Same positions – cash and low-beta.

I’ll continue to write and audioboo when the mood strikes, but it may be a little light this summer.  Just going to enjoy and look for entry points later.

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

A Quick Thought About Apple

This is a quick thought about $AAPL - Apple.

First, I don't own any. Second, I don't plan on buying any during Summer. That doesn't mean I won't, though. But as of today, it's sit on hands for me.

Technically, the stock is moving up near $600 and looking to be making a move. After breaking down below the 50dma and meandering about, the stock now seems to be lifting. And when it goes up, all the indexes that are heavily weighted in AAPL go up, too.

Earnings are coming up in July, and we know the company blowing the doors off on sales. I don't know and I'm not going to guess if the second quarter saw surging or weaker demand, but their products are the ones to own. The new iPad is amazing. The existing iPhones are amazing. We know that whatever the next iPhone looks like, it will be amazing. With 4G data, everyone will want to upgrade. Trust me on that one. Speed is everything - as iPad owners now know.

I can't think of a reason not to own some Apple in a portfolio. The only stickler is entry point for those who don't own. Plus, maybe a second stickler is any market seasonality.

But want I wanted to say about Apple is that when I was in Bodega Bay this last week, I used the HDMI connection to the TV to stream MLB and Netflix. In addition, as I hiked down to the beaches and along hiking trails, I took lots of videos that I was able to play on the TV. The picture quality was fantastic for everything.

There are headlines today about Apple TV. But honestly, if you have an iPhone or iPad, and the HDMI cable, you already have an Apple TV. Just plug the darn thing in to the TV!


One potential issue is the ability to use the device while watching TV. LOL.


Monday, June 18, 2012

Back From Bodega Bay

I just got back from Bodega Bay, and trying to wrap my head around the last few trading days. $$

When one goes on vacation and unplugs from the news flow, it's amazing how many other fun things there are to do. I spent much of the past week hiking, reading, watching movies, and just enjoying the company of friends. It's important to do this from time to time. We all get wrapped up in work and weekly obligations, that we forget to have fun along the way. Stop and smell the roses, right?

Meanwhile, there was an election in Greece that seemingly was what everyone wanted. The conservatives won. Yet, now the hope seems have been short-lived as now everyone realizes that there are still financial problems all over Europe. You know the nations at this point. Money that nobody has is promised to lots of entitlement programs. Solving debt with more debt isn't making the situation better. It's almost like we're watching the slow-motion unwinding of the Western nations. Just saying. I just hope there is economic growth around some corner ahead.

The market has bounced. Investors Business Daily shouted the "follow through day" call from the mountain tops after the close on Friday, and signaled that the market is back in an uptrend. But that was after a bunch of percentage points reversal off the low, which only reinforces my view of IBD as the whipsaw indicator. I don't see how anyone makes money following The Big Picture. Volume seems to be a little skittish to me.

I haven't run the Black Box or checked any indicators yet. It's still the weaker part of the seasonal period (spring-summer), so I'm still in mostly cash and low-beta stuff. I still may try a few trades here and there, but no pressure. No reason to do so other than if the itch hits.


I used to use telechart or TC2000 awhile ago. But with the iPad being my main device now, I rarely use the desktop and left TC2000. Now I notice they have an iPad app, so I signed up for the free trial. But I'm a little underwhelmed and will probably cancel and continue to use Amibroker.

Dodgers won 2 of 3 from the White Sox, and I'm watching and hoping the Angels can beat the Giants tonight. Not looking good so far.


Tuesday, June 12, 2012

Market Thoughts and Apple!

Well it has been five days since I've blogged and even longer since a podcast or audioboo. Where does the time go?The market has had a bad day and a good day this week. Lets start with yesterday, as the market ramped up at the open due to the Spain "getting a new credit card" news. Of course, the market sold off later. Whether it was a sell the news on Apple's WWDC or a realization that more debt in Spain won't cure the problems of huge debt due to entitlement spending, the market tanked into the close.

But then, today happened. Reason du jour? Bargain hungers - with the caveat that they're still worried about Europe.

Uh... Well, must have been a slow news day. Can't blame Shellie Zimmerman, can we? Or the LA Kings?

My thoughts are that there are no reasons to buy here, as the summer correction isn't yet over. I think anything near the previous lows may be interesting, though. Even though we normally have a summer correction, I would look for that to end a bit earlier this year. But, it is what it is. Not trying to anticipate it. I am just watching. Haven't even done any short-term trades.

But... I am working on a new Black Box for short term trades. Even just one-day trades. We shall see. "Paper trading" as of now.

And Apple? Well, I think the iOS6 news is fantastic. First, for the new iPad. Add in the cars and more hands-free use, app launching, new mapping system, and integration with social networks, and the iPhone and iPad will continue to be extremely popular. Bad news for Google, though. Google apps will be buried somewhere deep on the iPhone, somewhere where we will all forget about them.


Dodgers lost game one of the Freeway Series against the Angels. In the ninth!

LA Kings won. WOW! I'm not a hockey fan per se, but I did watch some of last night's game. Until it was 4-0, then I just turned it off.

I bought a new truck and got rid of the sports car. I was thinking about something more fuel efficient, but in the end I just got something that I wanted instead. One would think that the sports car was my mid-life crisis car, but I've been driving in the truck blaring Motley Crue over the bluetooth audio, with a big grin on my face.

Kick start my heart!


Thursday, June 07, 2012

Thursday Stock Market Randomosity

  • The stock market has been down and up the past week. Just last Friday, it was the worst of times. Yesterday, it was the best of times. Today, eh, back to things looking a little janky. It's never good when the market starts out strong and then fades into the close.
  • Reason du jour? Well, China cut rates. At first, folks loved the idea of more liquidity. But then, hmmm, maybe things aren't that great.
  • The Fed's Ben Bernanke continued to say "I'm ready when you need me, coach" with regards to any stimulus needed. But the reality is that Operation Twist continues and rates are pretty darn low.
  • Not much has really changed since last week.
  • The biggest change since last week is that the Dodgers went from losing 5 in a row, to beating the Phillies 4 straight in Philly. That's something the Dodgers haven't done in 66 years.
  • Nevada is the first state to adopt statues to allow online gaming. Is this good for $IGT?
  • The SyFy channel has been having somewhat of an Alien-fest with the movie Promethius coming out soon. Read the Promethius review here. I'll probably go see it. No 3D, though.
  • Maybe a big deal that $FB is rolling out a central location for their apps. It will be called, ahem, App Center. Kind of like Sportscenter, but with apps instead.
  • Anyway, I remain in cash and low-beta stuff. Not doing anything. Except maybe shopping for a new car. Yeah, really. Ready to ditch the sports car.
  • Yes, the Scott Walker win was a big one. Not just to retain the GOP leadership in WI, even though the Senate is now controlled by the Democrats in recess (lol). But the big deal is that maybe this will put an end to the recall madness for awhile.
  • Almost Friday...

Wednesday, June 06, 2012

Stocks Surge!

$$ - Do we credit the stock market rally to the Wisconsin voters for re-electing Scott Walker as their governor? 
Larry Kudlow did!
Not much other news flow out there as the reason du jour for the very strong rally today.  I don't even think today falls within the Investors Business Daily's rules for a follow-through day, which is required for a new bull market.  Yes the move was strong enough and the volume was there, but it has to be on the 4th through 7th day from Monday, so this is too early.
I don't know what they said, as I don't subscribe.  LOL.  It's kind of pricey for what it is, don't you think?
So, last Friday was the worst day of the year.  Today was the best day of the year.  Maybe we're seeing increased volatility, which could be that these recent lows are the bottom of this summer's 2012 trading range.
Stocks surge, see strongest day of the year

Stocks jumped Wednesday, chalking up their strongest day of 2012, as signs of moves in Europe to rescue Spain's troubled banks sparked a rebound from... Read more

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Tuesday, June 05, 2012

Macau Casino Growth Fatigue!

I've been watching $LVS with some interest, and here is a column on how the slowdown in China may be affecting the casino business.

I don't have any positions in Las Vegas Sands at this point.  And I wonder if the Macau boom of the past few years is somewhat similar to the Las Vegas boom in the 1990s.  Remember when new themed casinos were going up every few months?

Anyway, $LVS is on my watch list for an add somewhere towards the end of the summer correction. (Assuming that's what we're in.)  If not sooner, because sometimes I get impatient...

Macau Feels the Pinch of China's Slowdown

Macau's casino gambling business is showing signs of growth fatigue. The former Portuguese colony, the only place in China with legalized casino bett... Read more

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Stocks Close Higher

The markets (financials and $JPM) moved higher when Euro news came out. It seems as if they plan on using more debt to bail them out from the old debt.

So, same thing.  It won't work, either.  But the markets did seem to turn around on that.  Or maybe it was just a sigh of relief and a small bounce up to where the market previously broke support.

Anyway, Semis and financials did well.  I was just wondering when the right time would be start legging into some $JPM, but probably will wait a bit longer - and risk missing it altogether.  Funny this morning Bloomberg was talking about the stock and cockroaches. You know, where there is one there may be more.

Another bad day for $FB.  It may be a buy someday.  Just not yet.

Stocks close higher amid euro zone crisis

> Stocks closed Tuesday higher, recovering some ground from last week's sharp selloff as investor angst about the euro zone's fiscal crisis was o... Read more

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Wisconsin: With 119% of the Votes Counted...

And in Wisconsin, with 119% of voters casting ballots...  

Count me in as one who favors a voter-id law, just because we really can't trust either political party.  In WI, the Democrats are highly motivated to recall Governor Scott Walker.  The Republicans are highly motivated to retain Walker.

When emotions get this high, bad things can happen.  But those things would be less likely to happen if a voter-ID law kept folks honest.

Wisconsin allows same-day registration.  So I would imagine that unless spike strips line the freeways crossing the state lines on the Michigan and Illinois borders, there may be a traffic jam full of busses.

Friday, June 01, 2012

To QE3 or not to QE3?

To QE3 or not to QE3? That is the question... $$ 
Some of the talk this afternoon in the news is that the Fed must inject some more stimulus into the system. One of the Fed's missions is to ensure full employment, and with the numbers today it looks like the economy is sliding backwards.
So when will the Fed act?
One would think that they would act before the Presidential election.  That would have to be pretty soon, right?
But here comes Fisher.  Yeah.  I don't think he even has a vote right now, does he? Anyway, he says more stimulus would be a mistake.
Quick! Somebody text Paul Krugman!  PK has been saying the exact opposite ever since Obama was sworn in.
The reality is that folks will be looking towards the Fed now to see what they do and say.  Ben Bernanke has hinted that the Fed stands at the ready to intervene as needed. 
Is it needed?
Oh, the other mission of the Fed is to ensure low inflation.  

Fed's Fisher: No need for QE3
CNN MONEY | JUNE 1, 2012
The market may want more bond buying by the Fed, but Dallas Fed president (and long-time inflation hawk) Richard Fisher said that would be a mistake... Read more

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Job Growth Falls Off of a Cliff

Job growth sucks! $$ 
Jobs growth came in at 69K and previous months were revised DOWNWARD.  That's been the trend, right?  Upbeat numbers keep being revised lower when the final data is reviewed.
This took a toll on the market today.  The interesting thing is that even though guesstimate number was 150,000 (or higher), most folks in the news and on the web yesterday were whispering that this was going to be a bad number.  Nobody knew how bad, but something ugly.
Thoughts were that this bad number may have been priced in.

Labor Pains Continue as Job Growth Falls Off of a Cliff in May

Job growth braked sharply in May and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since June, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease monetar... Read more

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Dow Erases 2012 Gain

It's true. A money market fund is outperforming the Dow in 2012. $$ 

Remember when the Dow set the record for the largest point gain EVER in the first quarter of 2012?  Time for Total Recall on that, as the Dow is now down about .8% for the year.  A negative return!  Yes, a money market fund returning nothing is outperforming the Dow 30 stocks.

Unless you did the Sell in May and go away thing...


I remain with mostly cash and low beta holdings.  It's tempting to try and catch a rally, but there were only 5 up days in May, and June is off to a rocky start.  Tough to catch one!


U.S. Stocks Fall for Week as Dow Erases 2012 Gain on Jobs

U.S. stocks tumbled, falling for the fourth time in five weeks and erasing the Dow Jones Industrial Average's 2012 gain, amid concern the global econ... Read more

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#173: Market Crashes on Jobs Data