Monday, April 30, 2012

Microsoft to Invest $300M in New Barnes & Noble Unit

Look at that little $MSFT kid out of Belvue taking on the competition.   If it's not iPhones and Androids via the new Nokia Lumia 900, it's Amazon and Apple with a new Barnes & Noble unit.

Why, maybe that Microsoft company will be somebody someday...

Groupon Plunges

Did you see the shares of $GRPN - Groupon, plunge over 10% today?  Here's a company that had the online coupon market on fire for awhile.  I know there are some peculiarities regarding their accounting, but above that I just wonder how viable the business is long term.  

After all, a lot of companies are now sending deals of the day.

Sunday, April 29, 2012

#167: The Market Past and Future, Apple, Amazon, Tannehill's Wife

Saturday, April 28, 2012

Steve Wozniak Likes Windows Phone (and Lauren Tannehill)

image$AAPL co-founder Steve Wozniak (not pictured) likes the $MSFT and $NOK Lumia 900 Windows phone more than Android or iPhone.


Well, that’s what the man said:  Overall, Wozniak says he prefers the look and feel of Windows Phone apps over Android and iPhone apps. He also likes Windows Phone better overall than Android.

He still uses the iPhone 4S, though. Why?  More apps.  Windows apps just aren’t there and lack of voice dictation.

But those may be available soon, right?

The Lumia 900 is selling well, even with Nokia stock cratering.


Again, not shilling for any of these companies or phones.  I still have an iPhone, FWIW.  But I like the competition.  I don’t want any of these companies to become complacent. 

Picture is of Miami Dolphin’s first round pick Ryan Tannehill’s wife, Lauren Tannehill.

Friday, April 27, 2012

News that Would Have Recently Crushed Stocks

If $AAPL - Apple hadn't rallied after earnings, would the stock market be much lower at this point?  We have seen Spain go into a recession and its unemployment rate hit near 25%.  China is slowing.  The US GDP came in light and new jobless numbers appear worrisome.  The Netherlands government collapsed.

I'm typing this late night and I could probably hit the Google headlines and find more bad news.

They say the market likes to climb a wall of worry.  But is this worry or reality?  I get the feeling if Apple wasn't selling so many iPhones and iPads, the market would be much lower.

Thursday, April 26, 2012

Amazon Soars After Hours

$AMZN - Amazon soars after hours on earnings report.  Not as obvious as $AAPL, though, right?  But shares did go up nearly $30 in extended trading. 
Inc. posted first-quarter profits Thursday that blew by analysts\' estimates and caused the company\'s stock to jump in extended trading. The company said its Kindle Fire tablet remains its best-selling item, but its outlook for revenue growth was slower than expected.

The market has had a big run the past few days after three frustrating weeks.  There certainly seems to be a lot of optimism surfacing.

This is the BlogDocs app for the ipad.  It's pretty full-featured.  It may take a bit to get used to.  I still love Blogsy, but this does seem to be quite more robust in features.  Whether the features are needed = we shall see!  But it is cool.  

As you may know, I use lots of blogging tools to blog...  Some work for different uses.


Another night without an Audioboo or podcast, and blogging light!  Well, an hour bike ride, dinner, an hour walk with the dog.  And then no breaks during the day to gather my thoughts!  I thought I had a routine down!  What happened!?!?!?

The Market Wants to Go Up. Period.

The market never wants to go down again.  Spain doesn't matter.  High numbers of folks seeking jobless benefits doesn't matter. 

All it took was Apple.  Even with Exxon disappointing this morning.  Even with Fed's Lacker now saying
that maybe the Fed will have to raise rates in 2013.

Funny.  People want in!  

I wonder if this is just the last blow off top ahead of the Summer selling
Trying a new blogging app on iPad.

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

California's Budget Gap Worse Than Expected

This just in from Sacramento: CA's budget gap worse than expected. Tax revenues are lighter than Governor Jerry Brown projected.

The nonpartisan Legislative Analyst's Office said total personal income tax collections would likely be more than $2 billion below Brown's expectation of $9.4 billion for the month. Because the state was already running behind, it would mean PIT revenues would be $3 billion shy for the fiscal year compared to Brown's updated January projections.

Read more here:

Just a few billion shy.

Mixed Messages from the Fed's Bernanke

Did Bernanke's ($$) comments leave anyone feeling a little bit of this but a little bit of that?

  • The Fed said that growth will "pick up gradually" after remaining "moderate."
  • Central bankers "remain prepared to do more" if conditions worsen.

Everything is fine, unless it isn't. Therefore, the Fed doesn't need to do anything, unless they do.

Invest accordingly.

How Important is Apple? ($AAPL)

How important is Apple ($AAPL) to the indexes?

  • The SP500 was up 18.72 points. About 5 points of that was Apple
  • The Nasdaq was up 2.7% today. Apple was responsible for about 59% of that.
From the WSJ: The stock is now large enough to singlehandedly sway the major U.S. stock indexes.

Of course, we all know this, as we're reading the WSJ and blogs on our iPhones and iPads.

#166: $AAPL - Apple Drives Market; The Fed

#165: $AAPL and The Fed

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

The Problem With Netflix

$NFLX - Netflix got crushed on earnings and this is why I've always been afraid of the stock:  Competition.

I love the service.  But I'm not married to it.  If something better comes along - and that should be WHEN not IF, a lot of us will make the switch.  Some have.  Hulu.  Amazon.  Apple.  And the others mentioned in this article.

Netflix ruled with the DVD service, but the streaming service is anyone's ballgame.

Apple Crushes Earnings

Wow, obvious in hindsight. $AAPL blows by earnings numbers.  I think one of the interesting numbers is the sales in China.  That seems to be where all the companies are growing these days!

After about a 12% drop over the last few weeks, folks who took a chance ahead of Apple's earnings were rewarded as the stock popped about $40 in after hours trading.  The Twitter feed for $AAPL was humming, and the Earnings Watch took over Stocktwits.


Apple crushes Street targets, dispels iPhone fears

(Sent from Flipboard)

Saturday, April 21, 2012

The Buffet Rule, Fairness, and President Obama

I heard a great line somewhere about social programs really just try to make people comfortable in their poverty, rather than try to encourage people to get out of poverty.

I'm paraphrasing, but you get the gist.  As long as poor people are provided with food, shelter, and tax credits large enough to make payments on the big screen TV, they're okay with that.  Here in the US and maybe in the Euro nations, more and more people are okay with that.  If that benefit is taken away, then they protest and riot.

Unfortunately, the appetite for more and more comfort items is exceeding the ability of those who work for a living and pay taxes to provide.

Politicians rely on votes.  There are more voters who want the comfort items, and less voters who pay taxes to provide those things.  Tax rates have to increase on fewer and fewer people to keep the benefits flowing.  

But that seems fair, right?  That's why the rest of us go to work everyday - to make sure those who don't go to work can be comfortable in their poverty.

Friday, April 20, 2012

TGIF Randomosity

  • imageThe stock market shot out of the gate this morning.  Reason du jour?  The opposite of yesterday, which was the opposite of a few days prior, which was the opposite of a few days prior, etc.  Earnings!  Microsoft came in better than expected, and reduced worries over Spain’s debt burden.
  • That can all change before the close, so stay tuned.  And the market has cooled off a bit as the day moves along.  Heck, the Nasdaq is in the red!  Blame $AAPL.  apple is down another $14.54 as I type, or 2.46%.  The stock has a heavy weighting in the Nasdaq.  And SP500, too.
  • Heading to Reno.  Don’t take the run line and the Dodgers.  1-run games all over the place.
  • iPhone 5 rumors:  Liquid metal casing and October debut?
  • George Zimmerman out on $150,000 bail.  This is going to be an interesting case.  You know that already.  But anywhere you look in the media world, the guy is convicted already.  And if not, the law enforcement is preparing for riots.  Great.  If it’s not the Lakers winning, it’s the Zimmerman trial.  Always a reason for riots.
  • Now that Starbucks is going to stop using crushed beetles in products, where can I go to get a crushed beetle Frappuccino?
  • The Department of Labor keeps revising the numbers of people filing for unemployment benefits – higher. There have been 14 weeks of jobless data this year, and there have been 14 revisions. And all 14 were revisions that made the claims picture higher than what the government originally reported.  Election year gimmick or just honest mistakes and restatements?

Thursday, April 19, 2012

While US Blames Europe, Asia Blames US!

It seems as if we read the headlines and worry about what's happening with the latest bond auction in Spain. Depending on the word of the day, the markets react.

Meanwhile, in Asia, they're actually looking at the glum US economic numbers.

(If the Asian headlines can be believed...)

The reason du jour for today's weakness in Asian markets is US economic news! Always blame somebody else!

Apple iPhone Sales at Verizon

One reason iPhone sales may be slowing at $VZ (Verizon), is because of $AAPL (Apple's) release cycle. Those who want a phone get one soon after the release. After a few months go by, folks are most likely starting to anticipate and wait for the next version.

And the next version will most likely have 4G LTE internet connectivity.

I want one!

Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Facebook (FB) Stock - IPO on May 17th?

All eyes on the $FB IPO date - May 17th? Set your alarm clock! You won't want to miss it!

Gave Some Back...

The market gave back some of yesterday's gains as $IBM and $INTC drew investors' ire.

Reason du Jour: Two big tech names in IBM and Intel spooked investors, as did Spain. It's not like we can ignore Europe. But you never know what kind of reaction we're going to get. One day folks are worried, the next day they're not worried, then worried, not worried, etc. So the market rips one way or another, and either way Europe gets tagged as part of the reason. But when IBM falls $7 on what really isn't bad numbers but good numbers, one has to think about adding the name to the buy list somewhere down the road. Just thinking out loud. Seriously, whenever this correction is over - if it is a correction - then there are going to be some obvious names to buy. Unless one is a diversified ETF investor, as one probably should be - lol.

Slope of Hope: $EBAY rocking the after hours up over 6% last I checked. Getting some juice from PayPal. Haliburton also was up almost 5% last I checked. When I turned Bloomberg on after the Dodgers late loss, I noticed the futures were up. Somebody is excited about something!

Wall of Worry: Housing starts were light. That darn Europe - as in, Spain. Everyone on the planet talking about Sell in May. Maybe it's too obvious. The market corrects 4% and Apple pulls back 10% and it's Armageddon. Chesapeake ($CHK) at new lows as it looks like not only will Natural Gas be free soon, but there are some curiousities about "complex loans" to the CEO. You know, whenever that kind of stuff is going on I understand why folks dump the stock.

Black Gold: Oil prices were down, which means that - maybe - gas prices will come down and help folks out. Show of hands: Are you tired of paying more than $4 for fuel? Would you rather spend the cash on cheesecake or Colombian strippers? On the other hand, the reason for the price drop was the fourth consecutive week of supply build. So if the economy is improving, wouldn't we see oil demand increasing? Oil is a global commodity, so it's the US, Europe and China burning the stuff. So if things are slowing down then the current supply is meeting demand. Yet, we do have the middle east tensions still somewhere out there, right?

Seasonality: The Sell in May noise is getting loud, and those saying that maybe it's coming early this year are also loud. I heard someone say that it comes early in Presidential years and the rally picks back up earlier than buying back in the Fall. I didn't fact check that. I thought about the Fed and QE3, and how they would implement it in an election year. I can't imagine the Fed would want to be making dramatic market shaking moves too close to the election. Maybe that's why we're hearing more of the "status quo" about low rates forever rather than the "fiscal discipline" message this past week.  



Got the first hour-plus ride in for the Spring. Three nights in a row of cycling! And an hour walk for the puppy on top of that. The Dodgers lose two in a row in the last inning against the Brewers. Great series so far, but now the Dodgers are 9-3.

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Before the Close vs. After the Close

What do we focus on tonight, the market action or after hours earnings? Or Dodgers baseball?

Reason du jour? Investor enthusiasm! Yes, with Coke, JNJ, and Goldman Sachs reporting good earnings, investors had to get in today. In addition, investors snapped up Spanish bonds, easing Euro fears. At least for today. Maybe we just saw some buying after "the world is ending" view of yesterday, but this was a pretty significant move, right? The market closed strong, the Nasdaq led.

The Slope of Hope: Some earnings are coming in better than expected. Things seem to have gone okay with the Spanish bond auction. No bad news from China. Apple rallied over 5%, after 5-days in a row down! Back over $600 and back on its way to $1001.

The Wall of Worry: After the bell, IBM and Intel reported and disappointed investors. Stocks were trading down after hours. IBM has a 12% weighting in the Dow, so we shall see what happens after folks have a night to sleep on it.


Dodgers choked one away in the 9th on the road in Milwaukee. My dog knew something bad was going to happen as she started barking at me to take her for a walk with no outs in the bottom of the ninth, and Javy Guerra having put the first two runners on. Towards the end of the walk my friend called me to tell me the Dodgers had lost.

Another night of no podcast/audioboo. Two nights in a row of cycling and puppy walking, with lots of wind to prevent the audioboo-on-the-walk thing. Tomorrow!

Market is Ripping Higher!

Wow, stocks are ripping higher. Even $AAPL is up today! All market averages are up over a percent. Bulls fighting back and making a stand. I still believe the market is in a topping process ahead of the summer months, but we will see.

Sell in May doesn't work every year.

Most years? Yes.

All years? No.

Likely in years where the market is near bull market highs in April? Probably.

I haven't checked the reason du jour, yet. My guess is that the news flow is exactly the opposite of the news flow of previous days, the Fed is talking QE3, US jobs data is strong, and that all is well in Spain, Italy and China. Lol. I will check later! But be careful, the news could be exactly the opposite again tomorrow...

Lumia 900 converts coming from Apple, Android

Here is my daily check on the $NOK $MSFT and $T Lumia 900 sales. This poll shows that 60% of new Lumia 900 users are folks who have left Apple or Android.

Of course, since most folks have an Apple or Android phone - that's 80% of the smart phone market, it's kind of like the poll result that says "the majority of adults are former children."

Nevertheless, the new Nokia phone is selling better that expected and is giving folks another option. The Lumia 900 is currently free with a 2-year activation from AT&T. "Free" is an interesting price point and very attractive for folks who want in to the market. Heck, the Lumia 900 has a big screen and 4G LTE speed. That's the next market, especially when you consider that Apple iPhone users are stuck in 3G land - but are also most likely locked into a two year deal at this time. Well, except for those converting I guess!

I still have the iPhone and am in a two year deal. What would stop me from switching or converting at this point is the app. Lol.

Monday, April 16, 2012

Stock Randomosity

After Hours

  • Tibco (TIBX) was down 1.5% after hours after announcing a $500M offering for convertible notes. They want to use $150M to repurchase shares, $150M to pay down Credit facility borrowings, and the remaining $200M as a slush fund, er “general corporate purposes.” You know maybe take the executives on a junket to Colombia. I hear the US Secret Service knows a few places there to put on the bucket list.
  • If you want to send your stock price down, just announce a secondary offering like Starwood Property Trust did today. Down -3.8% ah. They’re going to use the money for something like purchasing corporate loans and other assets. Sounds like a reasonable use of cash, it just dilutes the assets of existing shareholders.
  • Valero up 1% after hours as EPS coming in around 25-35 cents, beating 20-cent estiments.

Companies in the News

  • RIMM up over 4% as the company reports it is in discussions to hire investment bankers to examine strategic options. Oh yeah, that'll help. I mean what the heck does Blackberry do at this point? Just make handsets and install Android?
  • Mattel slid 9% on declining quarterly sales, due to price increases hurt sales of Barbies and Hot Wheels. I loved Hot Wheels as a kid - and always got in trouble for leaving orange tracks and cars all over the living room floor.
  • Google slid 3% ahead of a high stakes legal battle with Oracle over smart phone technology. Really? Or just selling high beta stocks?
  • Proctor and Gamble up 1.5%.
  • Walmart up 1.4%.
  • JNJ reports Tuesday morning – one to watch, as it’s in everyone’s dividend portfolios.

News Flash

  • Rasmussen polling data shows Romney leading Obama by 5 points. CNN polling data shows Obama leading Romney by 9 points. Celebrate accordingly.


Why the Market Was Mixed Today

The market was a tale of two tapes, with the Dow rising and the Nasdaq falling.

Reason du jour? Anxiety! ("it’s got me on the run, anxiety") From Reuters via Yahoo finance, by Angela Moon, quotes James Dailey portfolio manager at TEAM Asset Strategy Fund from Penn-sly-vannia: “The market behavior is fairly manic today and investors are confused after a mixed set of data, Spanish yields, and momentum stocks like Apple losing ground. The confusion is leading to anxiety, and that’s why we are seeing the blue chips, the large caps, outperform

Really? Anxiety? Maybe it's the long bull run reaching marginal new highs in the month of April, just before May, when we tend to have our annual Spring-Summer market correction. Maybe the profits are being booked. Not saying James is wrong, though. All these things are in the trough. I'm not sure it's that confusing. Get out before the whole thing falls apart!

The belles of the ball fell hard today. Apple was down 4%, is below $600 a share, and now down five days in a row. And you thought the Dodgers had a streak going! Priceline was also down about 4%. How much is William Shatner worth, though? Meanwhile, The Google also was tripped up for a few percent. Well the high beta stocks go up faster, and come down faster during corrections, too.

Speaking of, check out the SPHB (High Beta) ETF vs. the SPLV (low beta) ETF. Money seems to be moving in one direction over the other. And that's not a healthy sign. But those low beta stocks are the big cap dividend paying MONSTERS. (Oh, JNJ before the bell tomorrow. Gird your loins, dividend investors!)

And it's not like the Fed was out trying to jawbone the tape higher, either. You never know. I was half-expecting Janet Yellen to announce that rates would be near 0% until 2016. Up the ante, JY!

The Slope of Hope: US Economy: US retail sales up .8%, sharper than expected.

(Excluding the Apple store, retail sales were down 100%. Just kidding, but you know I'm not the only one thinking that isn't too far out of the realm of possibilities.)

Check out Proctor and Gamble, Wal-Mart, and that sort of thing. Toothpaste and Chinese imports, right?

The Wall of Worry: Spain – rising borrowing costs. The Spanish 10 year govt bond is above 6% for the first time since early December. The country also noted that it has probably slid into its second recession since 2009. Italian yields also surged somewhere near 6%. I think 7% is the number where folks worry about stuff hitting the fan.

Socialism works everywhere they try it! As long as you never run out of people to tax, it keeps on chuggin' along...

As for me: Still with a lot of cash and low beta stuff.


I tried a podcast/audioboo on the dog walk, but it was a disaster with the outdoor noise and wind. Taking it to the keyboard while watching the Voice!

Apple - A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to $1001

Apple - $AAPL - suffered its biggest dollar decline in history today. Mark your calendar! While the price drop wasn't the largest percentage drop in history, I imagine those who purchased shares at $644 with a market order are scratching their heads. Heck, the stock was supposed to go 550-bucks in the up direction!

I have a sense of deja vous from Microsoft in the 1990s as the huge company battled monopoly charges and such.

Are we seeing the same with Apple?


I don't own shares directly although I'm sure it is in some of my ETFs in outrageous proportions.

My thoughts lie on the moving averages (or there abouts) with the stock. It has been on such a run that profit takers had to show up sometime. And the high beta stocks do tend to pullback more than the lower beta stocks during a market correction. Looking at the calendar and recent market highs, it seems as if we are near (if not in) one of those.

Nokia's Lumia 900 is Out of Stock at AT&T's Online Store

The $NOK Lumia 900 is selling well. I've taken some flak over commenting on the $MSFT Windows smart phone offered by $T. But the thing seems to be selling well.

Again, I think it's the price point. The thing is free right now with a two year contract. And the phone is getting good reviews by customers.

By the way, I own an iPhone. So it's not like I'm shilling for the Lumia 900. I do like to see the competition because it's good for all of us and helps to avoid price fixing and other monopoly related issues that we sometimes see when a company dominates the market.

Sunday, April 15, 2012

#164: Market Swoon Continues; Best Buy; Lumia 900; $Appl

Thursday, April 12, 2012

The Return of the Stock Market Roller Coaster

Markets rip higher for the second day in a row for exactly the opposite reason stocks tanked just a few days ago! Reasons du jour?

The Fed's Vice Chair Janet Yellin promised that the Fed was planning on keeping rates at near zero until 2015 or forever, whichever is needed. This is a continuation of the back and forth messages the Fed has been sending the past few weeks. In addition, US GDP growth is now estimated to be in the neighborhood of 2.5% to 3.5%. Nice.

Earnings started off better than expected with Alcoa and continue to improve. Folks who were worried are now optimistic about this earnings season. If you were paying attention after hours then you saw Google announce some sort of new-fangled stock split. I think we all need to sleep on that one and see how we feel in the morning.

Folks were worried about slowing growth in China, now they're optimistic about rumored stronger than expected growth.

And regarding Europe, folks were worried about Spain, Italy and debt, but bond yields fell in Europe on good results at Italy's bond auction.

Last year we saw wild market swings from day to day and week to week. Are we entering that sort of thing again?

Anyway, the market has almost recovered its losses from the recent 4% pullback.

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Lumia Sales Stronger Than Expected...

Nokia, AT&T and Microsoft are seeing stronger than expected sales for the Lumia.  And that's with an Easter day release.  Although official numbers haven't been released, analysts had predicted tepid sales.  

I think the $99 price point for the Windows phone on AT&T's LTE 4G network is interesting in a world of expensive Androids and iPhones.  Especially with consumers spending more at the pump and having less to spend on smart phones.

Competition is a good thing for consumers.


AT&T Nokia Lumia 900 continues to climb sales charts - SlashGear

The Beige Book Bounce!

After five down days, the market stage a bounce on great earnings numbers from Alcoa.  Any excuse to give some relief to the slide!  While the Fed Beige Book showed moderate economic growth, one has to wonder if the growth is strong enough to drive investor enthusiasm into the tricky Spring-Summer market. In addition, fuel prices continue to squeeze consumer discretionary funds.

No changed in my portfolio. I continue to have a lot o cash and low beta holdings.  

I'm wondering if folks will use the bounce to reload on shorts.  That is what I would expect if the market is in correction mode.  

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Will Windows 8 Crush the Apple iPhone iOS?

Will $MSFT new Windows 8 overtake $AAPL iPhone iOS?  This is an interesting article.  Remember in the 1990's when the web was first dominated by AOL and Netscape browsers?  Microsoft was able to overtake those companies.  What about the mobile world?

I think Apple and Google have such a huge head start that it will be extremely difficult this time around.  But, Microsoft does have a lot of money to make the effort.

Analyst: 'The entire cellphone and computing ecosystem will be shaken to the ground' - Apple 2.0

(Sent from Flipboard)

#163: Sell in April and Go Away - The Market Crash; Apple, ATT, Dodgers

Monday, April 09, 2012

#162: Market Sells Off

Friday, April 06, 2012

#161: Worst Market Week of 2012; Friday's Jobs Data Sucked

Wednesday, April 04, 2012

MLB Eve Randomosity

  • The stock market fell today. Reason du jour? The Fed hinted that they may take away the punch bowl – no more stimulus! It sucks when mom and dad take the credit cards away...
  • And a poorly received bond auction in Spain... “Investors contemplate a world without monetary stimulus” from Reuters.
  • Dow down 124.80 to 13,074. SP500 down 14 to 1398.96. Nasdaq down 45.48 to 3068.
  • The private sector also added fewer jobs than was expected.
  • Baseball opening day tomorrow! I'm ignoring the A's vs Mariners in Japan last week. That doesn't count.
  • I took the Dodgers at 30-1 to WIN THE WORLD SERIES. "A fool and his money..."
  • Oil down 1.35 to 102.06. Supply numbers came in today four-times higher than expected. Gee, the day after T Boone Pickens said oil was going to $148 a barrel. Was that a contrarian indicator? The siren call to get out of oil? Chevron down 1.4%, BP down 2.4$ and Exxon down 1%.
  • 10 year bond at 2.24%.
  • Gold down $51 to 1619. Over a 3% decline in gold today. The dollar was surging with the Fed’s hawkish comments. Gold companies also fell. Barrick Gold was down 4.5%. Newmont Mining down 5%. Goldcorp down 6%.
  • No change in overall allocation, I remain with a lot of cash and low beta holdings.
  • President Obama signs the STOCK act, which restricts congress insider trading. I wonder when the government does this sort of thing, if the end result is 180-degrees opposite. Like somewhere in the fine print, the act excludes members of Congress or something.
  • In California, a survey of 1000 likely voters says….that 3 out of 5 voters approve of a special fee on soft drinks to fight childhood obesity. Maybe kids should be weighed at school, and if they're fat, send a bill home to mom and dad. Wouldn't that have more of an impact? I'm not serious, but I don't think giving more money to the government is going to make people skinny.


Tuesday, April 03, 2012

Apple Shares are Dirt Cheap! $AAPL

Hey, get some Apple ($AAPL) stock here at rock bottom prices! Shares going to $1001!  GET IN NOW!  (lol)

Okay, I love Apple stuff, too.  But I don't own the stock.  I wish I had been an owner all the way up.  I bought it and sold it for a $4 loss when Steve Jobs announced he was ill again.  Didn't like the risk.

But the products are great.  I have an iPhone and an iPad.  Today, I activated the LTE on the new iPad.  It's fast.  It's great.  When LTE comes to the next generation iPhone, sales are going to go through the roof.  Well, assuming there's another roof to go through.

$1001 a share.  Who am I to joke about it?  Apple would be worth a trillion bucks.  Wow.

T. BOONE PICKENS: $148 Oil By Summer?

Higher oil prices are putting a crimp in people's pocketbooks as head into summer, and T. Boone Pickens says that oil may get more expensive.  In California, gasoline prices are already above $4 a gallon.

President Obama has washed his hands of it, and says there's nothing that he can do as President to turn prices in the other direction.  Thanks for doing that leadership thing, Mr. President.


T. BOONE PICKENS: Oil Could Surge To $148 By Summer

(Sent from Flipboard)

#160: The Fed Kills the Rally; Apple to $1001? Romney is the Guy;

Monday, April 02, 2012

Should investors plan to 'sell in May'?

Another article asking the question if investors should "sell in May" and go away. This is good background on the strategy. It has worked well the past two years and over the long term. But there are years where it doesn't work.

Of course, as the market races into April at new bull market highs, one has to wonder if the odds favor another summer correction.


Should investors plan to 'sell in May'?

April Best Month for Dow

Over the past 50 years, April has been the strongest month for the Dow. Over the past 100 years, only July has been stronger. I suppose that's why one is supposed to "sell in May" and not in April.

Strong day to start off the quarter.


April showers Dow with solid gains, history shows

#158: New Market Highs; Groupon; Ryan Leaf

Sunday, April 01, 2012

The Coming Market Correction

You can't read a financial publication or website without being warned that the market is about to have a nasty correction. After all, that's what happened in 2010 and 2011. As we all know, whatever happened most recently always continues to happen in the future.

Well. Maybe not. Lots of money has been lost playing the previous market trends and ignoring what is going on in the here and now.

Yes, the market has had an incredible run and trees don't grow to the sky. The history of market seasonality tells us that the market makes most of its gains from fall to spring, not spring to fall. I find myself with a large cash position and investments in low-beta dividend paying kinds of things.

There's China. There's Israel and Iran. There's high energy prices. America's debt crisis is growing from small municipalities to states to the federal government. Unemployment remains stubbornly high..

But April is one of the stronger months of the year for stock returns. We are at the beginning of the month where money is dollar cost averaged into the stock market. China just reported economic data that is being received well, thus maybe removing one of the wall of worry items from the bear case. The "market seasonality" trade is getting noisy -- contrarian alert?

But there are always bull and bear sides. Not making a decision is making a decision.

I will remain cautious going forward, with cash and low beta while looking for an opportunity to get more aggressive on The Coming Market Correction.


And... I have hedged my positions by going long on the Dodgers to win the World Series.