Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Market Thoughts

$$ - First, I'm still long the stock market and with beta. I believe the most likely outcome for the rest of the year is UP.

But it's a rocky ride, huh? If you're like me, you're tired of the market volatility due to a press conference from one of our political leaders. First, we're close to a deal. Then, we're nowhere near a deal. Next, they say something is going to be worked out. As the releases hit, the markets turn on a dime.

Is this any way to run a stock market?

It's crazy.

That all being said, it does seem like everyone agrees that there will be tax hikes. The short term consequences on the stock market and economy will be a slowdown. So, my thoughts are that even though we should see somewhat of a year-end run, I think the market gets dicey again in 2013 as tax hikes take money out of people's pockets. Combine that with any spending cuts (hahah, yeah right), and there could be GDP contraction heading our way.

Not. Good. For. Stocks.

But, I'm long right now. I'm thinking "sell in May" (or somewhere near that neighborhood) could be a very good strategy next year. Will have to wait and see...

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