Thursday, July 19, 2012

Quick Market Thoughts

$$ - Even though I'm mostly in cash and low-beta stuff (utilities, cigarettes, dividend stocks), the market has been fun to watch this week. The news flow is such that I would expect the market to be going down.

  • More bad news from Europe. Things aren't better there.

  • Companies profits are okay, but revenues are down. Hey, they're cutting costs! That's not good for jobs or wages, right?

  • Companies are lowering forward guidance and in some cases capital expenditures (ie, cutting costs).

  • Corn prices are skyrocketing with the lack of rain and intense heat in the breadbasket.

  • The economic news is dreadful. More bad news today.

In any other environment, any of those bullet points would get credit as the reason du jour for a market sell off.

But the market is going up!

Hey, like I say in the audiboos and blog, WALL OF WORRY stuff, right? Is it all priced in as we expect the worst?

Meanwhile, it's options expiration week. That's a time when the market tends to rally if the week prior was weak. In addition, the market technicals were way oversold a week ago, with the RSI(2) under 1 on the semis. How long does that usually last before a bounce?

Anyway, I am just watching right now. If anything, I'm tempted to sell the low-beta stuff and raise cash. The low-beta names are all sitting at or near 52-week highs.

It would be tempting to buy $GOOG ahead of earnings. Just because even if they miss, this market is going to send the stock up big. *

* Unless I buy shares - lol


Hey, I'll be back with the audioboos / podcasts soon. Crazy schedule the past month, and I am trying to be hard core with the cycling and weights this summer. I need to build a buffer and lose a few more pounds for the Fall/Winter "couch potato" season. (NFL, NBA!) Although walking the puppy helps with that.

I do appreciate you who subscribe and send emails. Search iTunes or your podcast app (Downcast, Podcasts, etc) for "Muck" and you can get the audioboo feeds to your phone or PC. Or go to, and you can leave comments, voice comments, or start your own Audioboos. (If you start your own, let me know...)

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