Monday, May 21, 2012

Market Thoughts after the BIG Rally!

Here are my stock market thoughts after today's big rally. $$

  • We all know the market was oversold and due for a bounce. The RSI(2) on the NDX was .01 for goodness sakes!
  • The rally was strong today, but not on huge volume. One day wonder? Will the market resume the downward trend as folks take whatever profits they can get and sell?
  • Or, has the market put in a low for the summer's trading range? It could be that the downtrend is over, and that the market will spend the rest of the Spring and the bulk of Summer meandering back and forth between about 1300-1400 on the SP500, culminating in the Sept-Oct time frame with a double or triple-bottom.
  • By the way, that last one is my best guess.
  • Apple rallied about 6% today. By the way, check the track record of going long when the RSI(2) is under 1 on AAPL. Go ahead. I'll wait for you.
  • *tick tock* ... See?
  • Anyway, lots of currents in the news flow to toss us around. I don't think the correction is over, but maybe we'll meander up and sideways for awhile. There are still stories out of Europe and China that will freak out investors, as well as continuing Malaise here in the US economy.
  • Of course, the US elections will also get a ton of coverage. More than any of us can tolerate is also my guess. No matter who wins, I'd imagine gridlock will be the word of the day. Obama will have to contend with a likely GOP Congress, while a President Romney would have to face a filibuster in the Senate. Neither party seems really serious about reducing the national debt or deficit. So that will go on until we can't borrow any more.

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