Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Gave Some Back...

The market gave back some of yesterday's gains as $IBM and $INTC drew investors' ire.

Reason du Jour: Two big tech names in IBM and Intel spooked investors, as did Spain. It's not like we can ignore Europe. But you never know what kind of reaction we're going to get. One day folks are worried, the next day they're not worried, then worried, not worried, etc. So the market rips one way or another, and either way Europe gets tagged as part of the reason. But when IBM falls $7 on what really isn't bad numbers but good numbers, one has to think about adding the name to the buy list somewhere down the road. Just thinking out loud. Seriously, whenever this correction is over - if it is a correction - then there are going to be some obvious names to buy. Unless one is a diversified ETF investor, as one probably should be - lol.

Slope of Hope: $EBAY rocking the after hours up over 6% last I checked. Getting some juice from PayPal. Haliburton also was up almost 5% last I checked. When I turned Bloomberg on after the Dodgers late loss, I noticed the futures were up. Somebody is excited about something!

Wall of Worry: Housing starts were light. That darn Europe - as in, Spain. Everyone on the planet talking about Sell in May. Maybe it's too obvious. The market corrects 4% and Apple pulls back 10% and it's Armageddon. Chesapeake ($CHK) at new lows as it looks like not only will Natural Gas be free soon, but there are some curiousities about "complex loans" to the CEO. You know, whenever that kind of stuff is going on I understand why folks dump the stock.

Black Gold: Oil prices were down, which means that - maybe - gas prices will come down and help folks out. Show of hands: Are you tired of paying more than $4 for fuel? Would you rather spend the cash on cheesecake or Colombian strippers? On the other hand, the reason for the price drop was the fourth consecutive week of supply build. So if the economy is improving, wouldn't we see oil demand increasing? Oil is a global commodity, so it's the US, Europe and China burning the stuff. So if things are slowing down then the current supply is meeting demand. Yet, we do have the middle east tensions still somewhere out there, right?

Seasonality: The Sell in May noise is getting loud, and those saying that maybe it's coming early this year are also loud. I heard someone say that it comes early in Presidential years and the rally picks back up earlier than buying back in the Fall. I didn't fact check that. I thought about the Fed and QE3, and how they would implement it in an election year. I can't imagine the Fed would want to be making dramatic market shaking moves too close to the election. Maybe that's why we're hearing more of the "status quo" about low rates forever rather than the "fiscal discipline" message this past week.  



Got the first hour-plus ride in for the Spring. Three nights in a row of cycling! And an hour walk for the puppy on top of that. The Dodgers lose two in a row in the last inning against the Brewers. Great series so far, but now the Dodgers are 9-3.

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