Tuesday, March 06, 2012

The First Big Loss of 2012

imageToday was the first big stock market loss of 2012.  And the Mayan calendar predicted it.  Well, maybe it was this reason du jour:  The Dow dropped more than 200 points on Tuesday, handing Wall Street its worst day in three months on renewed fears of a disorderly default in Greece and concerns that China's slowdown would hit global growth.

Remember just a couple of weeks ago when the Greece crisis was solved for the second time?  Looks like we’ll need a third time. Now that Greece is getting paid for bailouts, Rush Limbaugh was quick to label the country a Euro slut.

I remain about 80% long.  It’s not like the market was going to go up forever.

The Black Box timed this sell signal right on the number, but it has been wrong with the last few sell signals. It tends to work best in a sideways market.

If I had to make a prediction, it would be that the market is in a pullback and folks will get another chance to sell on a double-top.  Maybe that will be the top before the summer and the end of the favorable stock market season.  I’d expect the market to then rally into year end.  Despite the selling, it should be a good year for stocks.

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