Monday, August 08, 2011

Disaster Watch

We are drawn to disasters. Even though many are getting crushed and the repercussions throughout the economy will lead to job losses, falling tax revenues, government job losses, pension shortfalls, and such.

Since 2000, we have seen the economy and stock market peak, collapse, peak again, collapse again, and then peak. Is this the next collapse? Is this the resumption of the primary trend of a bear market? I'm not that bearish yet but it doesn't feel good today.

We all acknowledge that we are witnessing a historic event. This is a story that shapes our lives and that we will share with kids and grandkids.

I remain with cash, low beta stocks, some oil and small positions in QQQ and VB. The plan for the latter is to sell on a retest of the 200dm on the upside but who knows where that is going to be. It feels like the market has some work to do.

Overall, I am still bullish on the future. Sometimes these moves get a little scary but I think the emotional money needs to get out so that we can base, move up past the 200dma, and suck them back in at higher prices.

Just thinking out loud...

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