Monday, May 02, 2011

Osama Bin Laden Dead, Stocks Look to Future

Stocks slip I’m not going to say that “efficient market theory” had the Osama bin Laden killing baked into the cake, but the overall market reaction was nothing. After the President announced that Osama bin Laden was killed, the market futures were up and many expected that we’d see a big gap up at the market open. Eh, didn’t really materialize. Sure, we were up, but soon came floating back down.

Maybe it is because the war on terror is larger than Osama. No doubt, there will be others who take his place. In addition, this won’t change the way we now conduct business. Homeland Security will still exist, and we will all have to continue go through airport security screenings.

Nevertheless, we should feel a little better that Osama is dead and for the US troops who took him down.

The market continues to look to the things that matter for the economy. The stock market is near bull market highs, and investors are right to be a little nervous. High energy prices are impacting consumers’ ability to spend on other things. The GDP is sluggish. Unemployment remains high and the jobless numbers seem to have taken a turn for the worse.

In addition, we have the calendar and market seasonality. Who hasn’t heard about “sell in May” the past few days?

As of the weekend, the total return for the SP500 had been about 9%.

Hey, I think it’s great Osama bin Laden is DEAD. I think it’s great we flew into Pakistan and got him. I’d like to see the video on YouTube. It must have been incredible.

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