The market is doing exactly the opposite of what I thought it would be doing. Here's why:
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell to 46.1 in September rather than rising to the 52 that economists expected.
Maybe this is where the double-dippers start high-giving each other.
Still have paydays and 401k adds this week.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
The market is doing exactly the opposite of what I thought it would be doing. Here's why:
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
The market gave some back today as consumer confidence dipped. Pardon me, but I think consumer confidence is a poor forward-looking indicator. Consumers are dealing in the now, often times with problems of the past. But, who cares what I think? The market seemed to turn around as the number was released.
I still think with month-end and quarter-end, the bias should be to the upside this week.
My coworker has lost 12 pounds in 21 days on a low-fat, vegan diet. I noticed she dropped a few, but good for her. And she feels great and is excited about it all. The amazing thing is that her story has energized some others to do the same.
Already the middle of the week! I am so busy at work that I don't even have time for a web break or much time for lunch. Next on the agenda this week are job interviews for 3 software developers. So maybe those who we hire will feel more upbeat about the economy in the next consumer confidence survey!
Megan Fox pictured. Thought the Saturday Night Live last week was poor, but she looked great!
Monday, September 28, 2009
The market shot out the gates today. We have month-end strength and quarter-end ramp in effect as the race to be in the winners begins. Seemingly, anyways. It makes more sense than being excited about Iran' s nuclear program.
When it happens it seems obvious. Everyone wants to print those winning stocks in the quarterly literature.
I remain invested. No reason to sell, yet
Iran's nuclear program presents a problem. My thought is that they are trying to enrich uranium for bombs and that the world will not be a safer place when they have nukes. And when they can supply nukes to terrorists.
My new boss likes to have status meetings at lunch time. What? That's cruel and unusual punishment.
Fantasy football driving me nuts. Injuries!
Chad Pennington out for the season and Chad Henne to take over. I didn't have much hope for the Dolphins. Nice to watch Henne and see if he can play the game.
Friday, September 25, 2009
The market seems stuck in selling. Nothing dramatic, but the tone has changed where folks are more interested in selling and taking their gains compared to risking money for more upside. We’re also in the lull after options expiration week. Next week we begin the march towards the end of the month and quarter, so it will be interesting to see if the buyers step in at lower prices to pad their quarter-end portfolios with the names of winners. I remain long, and will not sell ahead of next week.
Watching the fantasy football health report. I hate how many coaches are hiding player statuses and how too many players are game-day decisions. It used to be more open. One great example this year was opening weekend and how Arizona’s Boldin was Questionable while Breaston was probable. Boldin played, Breaston sat.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
If I had to guess, I'd say the market is trying to put in its September-October slide. Everything seems to be set up for it.
Reading around here at lunch, and it looks like there is lots of talk about the US dollar. Easy to understand, because we (the US) are spending so much money that we don't have, it's hard to see any turnaround. Yes, it had a big bounce today but that's in a very impressive downtrend.
Remaining 100% long stocks, keeping an eye on stuff but not in panic mode.
My home office is in disarray and torn apart. Bringing in some new furniture this week, a new LCD TV, and a new PC next month (Yo! Windows 7!).
Maybe I'll try one of those energy efficient LED TVs. Something that wouldn't contribute to the heat in the office. Although I'll need the heat the coming months! Hmm...
I've been in cleaning mode this week, throwing away stuff, shredding stuff, and trying to get ready for the New Look. Can't wait.
Blogging activity will (should) return to normal as this new work project I'm on settles in and the home activities calm down. I miss posting the cheerleader pictures and random stories from around the web. Just haven't had much time to surf around!!!
Monday, September 21, 2009
Another day where you would think the bears could take the market down. But they didn't. After an early scare, I thought that this was the day the bears are going to get us. I was watching that last hour, but it just wasn't bad.
Maybe the scary thing is that I'm starting to feel like the market may never go down again.
In one of my fantasy football leagues I'm stuck with the ugly need that the Dolphins Ronnie Brown have a big offensive night. Lord help me.
UPDATE 9:25pm: Thank you, Lord!
And Michael Irvin on Dancing with the Stars? Yikes. No fantasy points for that.
Sunday, September 20, 2009
Cage dancing at the new Dallas Cowboy's football stadium?
Heading into post-options expiration week in September, it looks as if the stars are aligned for the most anticipated pullback since, well, the previous most anticipated pullback (after Labor Day weekend). It makes sense to me, but I'm still long until the market gives me a real reason to do something different.
Man, another great weekend for football. I spent 2 days in a casino (again).
Romo looks bad. Last week I benched him in fantasy football for Matt Ryan. Today I sit Ryan and start Romo. Good grief.
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Another strong day in the market. I remain 100% long, even though the bear argument of a pullback, correction, or double-dip recession makes more sense than anything coming from the bulls. Maybe that is what makes a "wall of worry" and why the market keeps going up. Yes, the market is pricing in something better ahead, I guess. Either that, or we're creating another bubble. Just hope I can figure out when this one is going to burst before the popping sound.
Remaining 100% long until there's a reason not to.
Just a quick entry today. I have a new job within the Fun Factory that is really kicking my butt right now, working with new folks and learning who the players are. Then there's the technology, too. Having fun along the way, of course.
If the economy is recovering, I think it will be good news for the Democrats in 2010 and 2012. I think the ACORN thing will blow over. Most folks have a short-term memory.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
- Tom Brady made Suzy Kolber work for the post-game comment!
- Ben Bernanke says recession is "very likely over." Bernanke said the economy likely is growing now, but it won't be sufficient to prevent the unemployment rate, now at a 26-year high of 9.7 percent, from rising. Hey, maybe you won't keep your job, but it's good to know things are better.
- Say, was it the real Ben Bernanke or identity-theft Ben Bernanke?
- "Male, pale, and stale" is out for Calpers. Now CalPERS officials cite studies, including one of their own, that conclude companies with women and minorities on their boards generally produce more value for investors than companies run by boards of directors that are virtually all white males. White men are nothin' but trouble.
- What I want to know, is what is the mission of Calpers? Is it political activism or producing returns to provide for the retirements of their members? Lets check! Our mission is to advance the financial and health security for all who participate in the System. We will fulfill this mission by creating and maintaining an environment that produces responsiveness to all those we serve. And white men suck.
- Average health care costs jump 5% for families. Despite a drop in inflation, the annual cost of employer-sponsored family health insurance coverage has risen 5% this year to $13,375. But lets also add Employers picked up the lion's share of that tab. Companies paid an average of $9,860, while their workers picked up the other $3,515.
- I think it's important to add in what the employer is paying, because folks believe their not getting raises while this shows that employers are indeed spending more on employees.
- Hey, it's Tuesday. The day after quite a football weekend.
Monday, September 14, 2009
Market had yet another chance to sell off, but didn't. We had the whole trade war with China plus Obama warning Wall Street about excesses. The market started out in the hole, but climbed up the rest of the day.
Do I feel skittish and does the bear case make sense? Of course it does. Remaining long and wondering when the rally will stall out.
Was in Reno all weekend long betting on football. Wow, some great games.
I always feel disconnected from the news and current events after a weekend away.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Quick entry to note that the market looks good. No reason to fight it, despite the historical worry about crashes in September-October. I remain 100% long as the market moves up and internals look good.
Heading to Reno this weekend to bet on sports and enjoy the opening NFL weekend.
Chris Collinsworth... I think he was okay tonight. It may be awhile before he's worthy of Frank Caliendo impression.
I think Apple's conference was a little disappointing. Just iPod stuff. Nothing that makes me want to spend money. So, meh.
I am looking forward to buying a new PC and new Microsoft operating system Windows 7 this Fall. I may not rush out on October 22nd to buy it, but within a month after the initial adopters take the early bird hit (in tech issues, etc).
Tuesday, September 08, 2009
Well, the Friday-Tuesday Labor Day rally thing worked out. I know I said Monday, but we were all at barbeques yesterday, right?
I think gold is the fun one to watch here as it tries to close above $1000. It was mighty close today, rally above and then closing below. It almost seems as if $1000 is a psychological barrier. You have to wonder if it takes off when it breaks through that. I suppose *everyone* is saying that though, right?
You probably know the arguments for rising gold and commodities, right? The dollar is going down, interest rates are low, America is deficit spending, and President Obama asked Congress to raise the debt ceiling. There are no plans in sight to curtail deficit spending.
Another play would be copper, ETF is JJC. But it's up over 100% this year already. Some more diversified plays here.
Same for oil, which has rallied. I think as money is fast and loose in a recovering economy, oil demand will increase.
No, I don't own any gold, copper, or oil at this time. I guess I'll just sit by and let other people make all the money on those trades.
You know, I really wasn't at a barbeque yesterday. I ended up watching a DVD, "Passengers." It was a little slow but I kind of liked it in retrospect.
Already watching NFL injury reports, and the season hasn't begun! Darn that fantasy football! One more draft, tomorrow night. That will make THREE. Good grief.
Sunday, September 06, 2009
- San Diego Chargers star outside linebacker Shawne Merriman (not pictured) was arrested Sunday and accused of choking and restraining his girlfriend, reality TV star Tila Tequila, as she tried to leave his suburban home. Merriman said he was trying to stop her from driving. I think taking away her keys would be step #1, with choking being way down the list a ways.
- Alex Van Pelt named Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator. Alex, you may want to live out of the suitcase for a little while first. Just saying.
- Vikings took away John David Booty’s #4 jersey and gave it to Favre, cut him from the team, and now hired him back to the practice squad. Pr-pr-practice?
- Virginia turned out to be William and Mary’s tune-up game. Al Groh may want to keep his suitcases at the ready.
- Lou Holtz… Yeah, it was tough listening to him yesterday.
Okay, so I’ve been planted on the sofa for the weekend watching college football. Feels great. Loved the BYU upset of Oklahoma. BYU handled Oklahoma’s offense with Sam Bradford in the 1st half, but no doubt BYU had an edge in the 2nd half. Still had to execute the offense, but stopping that last drive was a bit easier with Bradford’s shoulder on ice.
Friday, September 04, 2009
The market ended the week with a rally. The market seems like it just doesn't want to go down too much. I heard Bob Pisani mention on CNBC that if Friday before Labor Day is a rally, it's likely Monday will be a rally. I didn't validate, but sounds good to me. Would that be an opportunity to lighten up? I'd be lying if I said I wasn't thinking about it. But the "September Swoon" almost seems too crowded. I've heard everyone mention it.
Remaining long heading into the weekend and opening College Football weekend!
One fantasy football draft down, two more to go! ... Labor Day weekend already? Good grief. I don't like the dwindling daylight hours, but FOOTBALL... Megan Fox picture today!
Wednesday, September 02, 2009
More late day selling. Tone of market has changed. Or maybe it's confirming some of the toppiness behavior exhibited in recent weeks. IBD changed their stance last night to market under pressure. The market seems to have priced in the improving economic numbers and is wondering "what's next?"
Overall, I remain long-term bullish. I remain long, but may lower my beta or even raise a little cash. Maybe a little of both cash raising and beta lowering. I'll blog when I do it!
Laszlo Byrini made a great comment this morning on CNBC, about how in many bull periods we rarely see pullbacks of more than a few percent. If that's the case here, is it really worth trying to capture a 2-3% move?
Heading to the California State Fair today! I tend to skip the fried greasiness, but love the vendor space where they sell little gadgets and gizmos. ... I have three fantasy football drafts over the next week, starting Thursday night! ... September? Sheez!