Friday, July 17, 2009

TGIF Market Thoughts

The market has had a great run. I still think we're in a trading range for the Summer, but no reason not to enjoy this run. The right moves have been going long or more agressive near the bottom of the range and getting more conservative at the top of the range. I know that sounds obvious, like a "channeling stocks dot com" commercial. But adjusting portfolio beta based on expectations is a way of managing risk. Right or wrong. And eventually when the current theme ends, it will be wrong. But it's working now.

The Nasdaq has an 8-day win streak. (Wow, really?) I think it caught most folks off-guard. Sentiment still seems bearish. I haven't lightened up or switched to something less aggressive. I'm still of the belief that the economy is recovering and the overall market trend will be higher. Of course, I also believe that it will be difficult to make too many gains over the Summer. So, my market thoughts have remained the same and I remain long. Hey, if you can't withstand a 7% pullback in a bull run, it'll be tough to make money in the long run.

I know my blogging has slowed down in recent weeks. Work has been busy and I've been taking some time off and going here and there. (I was in Reno last weekend). I don't like to announce when and where I'm going in advance (or during), because of some of the latest headlines regarding how folks are watching social networks and blogs for "crimes of opportunity." I don't want to be an enabler.

Time to jump in the pool. It's over 100 frikkin-frakkin degrees here in Sac!

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