Monday, May 04, 2009

Does Sell in May Work?

  • Nice day in the market. From Yahoo Finance: Brightening news about the economy sent investors rushing into stocks Monday and put Wall Street close to break-even for the year.  Gains in housing, financial and materials stocks pushed market indicators up by about 2 percent. The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 165 points, while the Standard & Poor's 500 index rose nearly 3 percent and came close to erasing its losses for 2009.
  • Kind of amazing that after such a big rally, we're just back to even!  Monthly strength still in effect.  But seasonal shift could be on the horizon.
  • Speaking of, Cashin' In addressed market seasonality on Saturday.  Most of them thought the idea was ridiculous.  Except for John Bradshaw Layfield.  Well, read 'em:

Jonathan Hoenig: Seasonal anomalies are a bunch of "malarkey." Go by the Super Bowl index or the Big Mac indicator or any other indicators people come up with. The market, in the summer of 1961, has nothing to do with the market in the summer of 2009.

Wayne Rogers: It's hard to ever argue with history, in the sense that history tells you something. But Jonathan is right in the sense that you might as well get a Ouija board.

Jonas Max Ferris: If you blow back 100 years, this period actually does OK. Stocks do better from November to May. But they have a positive return from May to November.

Tracy Byrnes: 2007 saw an increase as well, May to October. It was up maybe 5 percent. But still, it was up. I think, so, Wayne is right. This is a different market, different time. You look at where we are right now. You cannot compare, unfortunately, to what has happened, because things are so different now.

John Bradshaw Layfield: Absolutely. Sell in May.

  • BlackBerry Curve takes over iPhone as most popular smartphone. So, how did the Curve manage to overtake the iPhone 3G? Well, as the NPD group notes, availability on all the big carriers always helps (the iPhone is, of course, still only on AT&T), as well as its $99 (with a new two-year contract) price tag. Meanwhile, Verizon Wireless probably helped boost Curve sales with its "buy one, get one free" promotion, according to NPD.  I'd add that corporate use of BlackBerry is larger than the iPhone.
  • Ron Howard says the Vatican obstruced Angels and Demons.

Picture is of Fox Business Network's Tracy Byrnes.