Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Seasonal Sell Signal? Thoughts

Checking out Sy Harding's blog to see if he issued a seasons in the sun sell signal yesterday, as the MACD for the DOW crossed down.  The SP500 was close, but held up.  This is all it says:

Wednesday, April 22, 2009. 9:15 a.m.

April 22nd, 2009 Subscribers: There is another new hotline update on your website from last evening, and there will be an in-depth ‘Markets Signals and Recommendations’ update on your website later today.

Usually the information leaks out, but haven't found anything yet via The Google. 

Another seasonal timer is Jeffery Hirsch, and I found this from a CNBC column:

The timing of this rally also does not bode well for what lies ahead, says Jeffery Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac, who notes the market's traditional bullish period runs from November-April.

"Some of the old seasonality may not be in effect; that in itself is a negative indication," says Hirsch. "We've stalled at that 8000-ish resistance level and we’ve got the bad season coming on."

Hirsch notes that the Dow has had only four up months in the 17 dating back to Nov 2007--right after the record highs of October--and that the market has posted gains on only two Mondays since early December, suggesting investors don't want to jump back in after the weekend when they are traditionally loathe to be long. 

That sort of bearishness does not mix well with seasonal performance, especially when investors remember the two previous major false bottoms of this bear market.

I haven't done any "seasonal" moves, yet.  One thought would be that since the market has moved up since Monday's fall, stay with it until we have another large distribution day and/or an IBD sell signal.  Or wait until after the beginning of the month strength (should it happen).  But so far the market has moved up since Monday's selling, so no reason to act too soon and try to anticipate a top.  Could just wait and see what happens what internals look like should we revisit the top and try to break through.

Then should one raise cash, the next question is what do to with it.  Interest rates are nil, and who wants to go in short-term treasuries when the government is spending trillions via deficit spending?  (Especially if one thinks the economy is recoverying and the Fed will be behind the curve in anticipating inflation).

Just a few thoughts. And some Lakers Girls