Thursday, January 31, 2008

My bff John McCain

  • Got a voice message from my bff John McCain last night. He called me to ask for my vote next Tuesday.  How nice.  A personal call.  And I know it wasn't a prank, because at the end he said "I am John McCain, and I approve of this message."
  • I didn't get a personal call from Mitt Romney.  Screw you, Mitt. You're out of my Fav Five!
  • Well... The markets.  Seems like yesterday was a day that the bears put their foot down and said "No mas."  The market spiked on the Fed cut and comments, but that was quickly sold off as the bears took hold.  Afterhours, the market futures tanked with poor earnings calls from companies like Amazon.  This morning, the market opened down fugly, and the bears were running rampant.  Everyone is talking about a bear market.  Very few bulls anywhere.   Since then the market has turned up.
  • I know the whole planet is bearish and expecting a recession, even though last quarter's GDP came in positive (by a .6 smidge).  But what happens if that was the low in the GDP?
  • Adam Warner has your GOOG earnings preview.
  • Britney Spears back in the hospital?
  • Plaxico Burress predicts a Giants victory over the Patriots on Sunday.
  • Greg Mankiw on the Four Goals of Tax Policy.   And that will be on the final exam.
  • John Edwards drops out, endorses John McCain.
  • Buy signal still on at Jason's.

Monday, January 28, 2008

Quick Hits

  • I like it when the market opens lower, and then rallies. Even moreso when the afternoon fade gets bought into the close. 
  • Room for worry?  Well, the volume a little light.  And no doubt those who are expecting at least a retest of last week's lows, aka "everyone on the planet," are going to cite the low volume as signs that the bulls are running out of steam.
  • Longer term view here.  I think the market is heading higher.  I think the fears are overblown and well known.  Shorter term view is that I'm a little worried about the Fed potluck this week, and the GDP could cause some angst.   Those would be my likely blamecatchers for a retest this week.
  • On the otherhand, a high-volume follow through day from last week's rally is still a possibility...
  • The problem with eating your mid-afternoon snack at 1:05pm?  Yeah, it makes for a long and hungry afternoon.  It was a banana.  And now I have nothing.  Drat.
  • It was raining a whole bunch here over the weekend, so I caught up on some movies and TV.  And honestly, that's what I do when it's not raining on weekends, too.  Be that as it may, I went and saw I Am Legend on the big screen.  I liked it, although a bit unsettling.  I'm a sucker for a sci-fi plot, though.  I also NFLXed The Simpsons Movie.  Also liked it.
  • On the TV side, I've been recording the BBC "Life on Mars" show.  Watched a few, and am still undecided but leaning towards "I liked it."  That's the show where a guy gets hit by a car, and wakes up in 1973.  Is he time traveling?  Is he in a coma?  Heck if I know, but it's watchable.  Love the Brit humor, too.
  • Politics...  I'm not a Democrat, but I have to love Obama's presence at the mic.  He is a breath of fresh air and a definite change from the other one on that side of the fence; although, his platform is roughly the same.  I just get a feeling he's a little more honest than the one in a pantsuit.
  • As a Republican, I have no idea who I will vote for next week.  I'm not that inspired by Romney, McCain or Rudy.  I respect Rudy for his work in New York, but I think the country is ready to move on from 9/11.  I think "Honest" John is a decent guy, but he's the Joe Lieberman of the GOP.  Conservatives don't like McCain!  Romney is the smartest person running in the election, and takes the skin off his chicken before eating.  Love the health message there, Mitt! 
  • I'm guessing that when I do go to vote, it'll be either McCain or Mitt.
  • November thoughts?  The country is tired of the GOP.  I think Obama would bring out the hard-to-motivate younger voters and deliver the GOP a serious pounding in November.  Hillary might have a rougher go of it, simply because she'd repress the youth vote and there is a lot of anti-Hillary sentiment out there.  McCain could get the middle vote, and may be the GOP's best chance against Hillary.  I don't think he'd win against Obama. 

Friday, January 25, 2008

Moon Roof...

  • Save Journeyman.  Save Moon.
  • The bulls gave up today.  Or maybe decided to take profits after what everyone on the planet is calling a "countertrend rally in a bear market."  Yeah, I mean it's hard to swim against the tide.  If the crowd wants a retest, they may get it.  Now the bulls would hope for a light volume retest with a break below the previous lows to suck the bears in before ramping up higher.  We'll see!
  • Or it's just friday, and folks want to get out ahead for the FIRST NO FOOTBALL WEEKEND since... Uh... When was it?
  • The roof!  The roof!  The roof is on fireA fire on the roof of the Monte Carlo hotel-casino forced guests and gamblers to flee and sent a plume of smoke above the Las Vegas Strip before easing about an hour later, hotel officials said.
  • Paul Kedrosky discovers that SocGen rogue trader Jerome Kerviel only has one friend.  LMAO!!!!
  • 875 lbs of Rice-a-Roni sent to NBC to save Journeyman! 
  • The Least Repellent Republican, from Powerline.  Getting the top choice from the NY Times isn't what most conservatives are hoping for.  But, Honest John McCain is the GOP pick by the NY Times.  LOL.
  • I haven't decided yet.  I don't know.  I think the *most honest* candidates are Obama on the Left, and McCain on the Right.    Those two seem to be the most likely to tell us what they're thinking without hiding behind spin and handlers.
  • TGIF.  Yeah, no football... But look at that hoop line-up on TV tomorrow!  Holy buckets!
  • MP3 of the afternoon... Kansas - Questions of my Childhood.  I believe from their Leftoverture album.
  • Rock on, Garth.

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Stimulation Nation

  • Stimulation nation! The tax rebate checks will be in the mail in June.  Here are the details for taxpayers...

Individuals who pay income taxes would get up to $600, working couples $1,200 and those with children an additional $300 per child under the agreement. Workers who make at least $3,000 but don't pay taxes would get $300 rebates.

The rebates would phase out gradually for individuals whose income exceeds $75,000 and couples with incomes above $150,000, aides said. Individuals with incomes up to $87,000 and couples up to $174,000 would get partial rebates. The caps are higher for those with children.

  • Giants: 'We Almost Beat The Patriots Once, We Can Almost Beat Them Again'  "This team has already tasted victory against the Patriots," head coach Tom Coughlin said Monday. "By which I mean we were so close to victory that we could taste it. True, we did not actually experience that victory, but we came as close to beating them as anyone else has this season. That's the kind of team we believe we are, and I think the Super Bowl will prove that."

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Rick Santelli vs. Jim Cramer

Monday, January 21, 2008

The Fed F's Up Again

  • The Fed raised rates too high.  They kept rates too high for too long.  They prattled on about inflation that didn't exist.  So, here we are. 
  • Where?  Waiting for a bottom.  The market continues to free fall, pricing in the future.  Since the market hasn't bottomed, I bring you Linda Park from Star Trek Enterprise.
  • Never be afraid to admit mistakes, and move on.  This market "correction" has fooled me and my Black Box indicators.  While I don't expect the Black Box to be 100%, this is a big miss.  I am currently 100% long, and looking at the market futures it looks like tomorrow is going to be a very bad day for bulls.  The DOW futures are -520.  The SP500 futures are -60.  The Nasdaq futures are -76.  Look out below.   Yeesh.  Set the DVR for the open and record it.  Play it whenever you feel overly bullish somewhere down the road.
  • I won't do anything at the open.  No reason to panic.  The SP500 is already off over 15% from its closing high.  I won't be raising cash here or buying inverse ETFS, shorting stocks, or buying bear funds.  Congratulations to those who did that at the top of the market, but I'm not going to sell weakness.
  • Looking to the future, I plan on remaining 100% long.  I haven't done much since buying in at what I though was a retest of the bottom from the Fall trading range.  Continuing to dollar cost average in.  If the market does find a bottom and rallies, I'll probably get more aggressive on a retest (with divergences).
  • Maybe we'll get a reversal tomorrow.  Keep an eye on that.  And the other... on Linda Park.

Friday, January 18, 2008

How Would You Spend $800?

Well, all the discussion today is about the much anticipated stimulus package discussed by President Bush.  One idea floating around is that the Government is going to send everyone a check.  I don't know if it matters whether you are working or not, or if you pay taxes or not.  The number floating around is "$800" per person.

How would you spend your $800?  Some "starter" ideas...

  • Strippers!  At $20 a lap dance, that's 40 dances.  Certainly, that should stimulate the economy and improve the consumer sentiment readings.
  • At $12 a 12-pack for Tecate, that's a buck a beer or 800 Tecates.  Enough for about 2 beers a day for a year to help keep your HDL cholesterol levels up.  That's the good cholesterol!
  • Costco has the Sony Playstation 3 (PS3) bundle for $514.  It includes a blu-ray remote, a second wireless controller, and the game Spiderman.  Plus, you'd get the Blu-Ray DVD with the PS3, so you could join Netflix's $9 a month package for over 30 months with the remaining cash.
  • A subscription to Jim Cramer's Realmoney site is $229, so that'd last over 3 year.  And if you called and begged them for a $99 rate, maybe you could stretch it for 8 years.
  • E-Trade (ETFC) is currently at $2.84.  One could buy 280 shares of ETFC.  (Disclosure... Long ETFC "lotto tickets").
  • 228 boxes of Girl Scout cookies.  No doubt, someone in your office is passing around the sign-up sheet this time of year. Why not pen in "228 boxes of Thin Mints" on the order sheet? It'll make your co-worker's look like cheapskates! "One box, eh big spender?" I like putting the Thin Mints in the freezer, so I don't know if 228 boxes (456 sleeves) of cookies would fit in there or not.

How would YOU spend your $800?

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Talk is Cheap!

  • "Are we talking ourselves into a recession/bear market?" - Larry Kudlow, 1/16/2008.
  • I agree with Larry on this one.  The gloom and doom is thick in the air.  But it feels bad for those of us long.   Granted, since I took most of my positions near the bottom of what I thought was the correction trading range, I'm not down TOO much from there.  But I did ride it up and ride it back down.  Plus, the Black Box missed the top.  It isn't perfect.
  • And everyone is a VIX expert these days.  On the Fast Money show, the gang was showing a graph of the market vs. VIX.  If you want to know about the VIX, read Adam Warner's site.
  • Gawd, a Hillary (not pictured) clip ripping the economy and "47 million with no health insurance, no energy policy, and Bush in the Middle East begging them to lower oil prices."  Yeah, like she can fix it.  What's her policy/solution, "magic beans?"
  • Oh, Summer Glau as the girl robot from the TV Terminator show.  LOL.  Hoo-hah!  She was a little creepy as River on Firefly and Serenity.  But this role works for her, no? 
  • Where was my hot girl robot when I was 15?
  • And at least it's fresh TV that's NOT a game/dance/reality show.  Sorta fresh. 
  • I'm watching American Idol, although these tryout shows are more like ADD Idol.  These folks their making fun of on the show obviously have some mental condition.  I think we've seen enough... Lets get on with the show.
  • The dance war show with Carrie Ann Inaba and that guy from the other dance show?  That's some bad TV.  Yeah, I'm watching that, too....  But with a DVR.   Now that they have their teams, lets hope that gets better.  Or else we're going to send Summer Glau in to kick some butt.

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Bargain Hunters!

  • Just as I was ready to jump out the basement window because the Nasdaq was never going to have a positive day again, the "bargain hunters" show up and turn the market around.
  • "Bargain hunters" get the credit?  C'mon.  U.S. stocks closed higher Wednesday as the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite roared back to its first positive day in nine, as bargain hunters stepped back into a market blindsided by economic fears that knocked more than 500 points off the Dow so far this year.  (Are these the same people lining up at 6am to buy Hallmark Christmas ornaments and wrapping paper the day after?)
  • Hunting for votes?  Obama gets the crucial nod from the Culinary Workers union in Nevada.  Voters gotta eat!
  • Hunting for trouble?  "What are you doing here?" man asks wife at BrothelA Polish man got the shock of his life when he visited a brothel and spotted his wife among the establishment's employees. Polish tabloid Super Express said the woman had been making some extra money on the side while telling her husband she worked at a store in a nearby town.
  • Couldn't the wife ask the husband the same question?
  • In other hunting news, bird dog steps on gun, kills hunter.  By any chance, was that Dick Cheney's dog?

Tuesday, January 08, 2008


  • Hmm, does selling Apple ahead of Macworld make much sense?
  • (After missing the OSU bet last night, I need AAPL to create a iBowlpicks device...)
  • Yes, the market is behaving bearishly.  Fading into red after a decent open isn't bullish action.  Lets see what happens last hour.  I liked yesterday's last minute action.  Strange positioning happens late in the day by folks who may (or may not) have a feel for what is coming next.
  • I remain long believe this is just a correction like we've had in the past.  Lots of bearishness out there and recession chatter, but I think they're wrong.  The stock market is looking 6 months out or so, and this correction has been going on for months now, reflecting our slow-growth economy.  I believe what we're in now is priced in, and where we're going is not.  I think the Fed rate cuts will work.  Don't fight the Fed.
  • Of course, I picked OSU last night, too...  Bah.  Big 10 ain't what it used to be.
  • A better 3-letter pick this year?  XLF.  Yeah, the financials.  I think so.  Lower interest rates help banks, and I think the mortgage stuff is well-known and priced in. 
  • I had that Bruno (not pictured) vs. Carrie Ann Inaba dancing and singing show on last night.  "You can sing, but you can't dance.  You can dance, but you can't sing."   Is there a category for those who can do neither?  That'd be me!
  • I can't believe Transformers was a 2007 blockbuster.  Bleh.  Or Harry Potter.  Luckily, I saw neither at the theaters.  Most of the time when I walk out of a movie theater, I feel like I was robbed.  Like somebody stole my money.
  • Meetings all day here at Fun Factory U.  Kind of a nice break, actually.  Not much during the holiday weeks with folks out on vacation. 

Monday, January 07, 2008


I am taking OSU and the points.

Mobile blogging here so typing is slow. But the market showed a glimmer of hope with the close. The RSI(2) on the SPY was under 1! So a bounce is coming. The recession bears claim that they want to short the bounce. Lets see what they do when it comes... If it come. LOL.

Go Buckeyes!

Friday, January 04, 2008

Gregory Itzin as Mike Huckabee

  • Is it just me or does Mike Huckabee look a little like 24's President Logan (Gregory Itzin)?
  • Has anyone seen Gregory Itzin lately? Just wondering out loud...
  • Well this market isn't acting like I thought it would today.  I was "hoping" for a big intra-day reversal.  I've loaded up with high-beta stuff and even some options here.  Not much damage yet, since I got in the names near the lows.  However, the lows are being redefined every minute as I type!
  • I can't remember CNBC so bearish.  Aren't they supposed to be telling us what a great time to buy this is?  Instead, it's RECESSION, RECESSION, RECESSION.
  • What the market needs now is a Fed rumor of "rate cut before the meeting."  LOL.
  • Look at the QQQQ chart. RSI(2) below 4 (as I type). Big bar down over the 200dma. Fugly!

  • Just another retest of the previous lows, me thinks. Fear is extremely high.

Christmas in January

IMHO, stock market giving a gift here. Good chance to get in some leaders and get more aggressive.

Just a thought, not a guarantee. LOL.

The blame gets cast on bad jobs numbers, but the December ISM came in higher than expected, indicating higher growth ahead.

Quite a dichotomy...

Or maybe the market is selling Huckabee and Obama!

Thursday, January 03, 2008

Celebrity Apprentice

You're Fired!

  • Anyone else sad that former Playboy Playmate of the Year Tiffany Fallon was the first one to be voted off of Celebrity Apprentice? Hello, Donald? Is Omorosa really a better ratings grab than Tiffany? I was hoping for more Playmates, Hef, the Playboy mansion, whatever. Instead, we get Omorosa. Geez. She's a disaster!
  • Nobody is probably sad that Dolphin's 1-15 coach Cam Cameron (not pictured) was fired. Parcells is bringing his own folks in, so it's not just the 1-15 thing. Although...

The Market

  • Lets go to the SP500, where I found a good chart and column over at Safehaven.

  • Hmm, something funny happened on the way to the top of the range...
  • It's tough to "say" anything positive about the market, because the charts don't look great. Especially of individual stocks. Especially of the market leaders, the four horsemen, etc. However, I remain 100% long here and continue to believe that the economy isn't nearly as gloomy as we're reading about in the media or hearing from the Presidential candidates running on "making things better."
  • Earnings season coming up. With the selling and overall gloominess, watch for some positive comments and reactions this time around. Just a hunch. And what about those employment numbers this morning? Beat expectations...

New Year's Resolution

  • I often mention that I'm trading individual stocks. So I'm going to try to post more about what I look for in chart set-ups and news/calendar events. I don't want to tout stocks, but maybe from an info-tainment perspective this will give folks a chance to take a look at what I find interesting vs. un-interesting when thinking about buying or selling.

Thursday Thoughts

  • The market continues to "not advance." Despite a decent employment growth number, folks seem so convinced that we're heading towards a recession if not in one already.
  • The Iowa vote is today, but... Isn't it fairly meaningless since the ultimate winner will be picked on super tuesday in February?
  • I have Kansas tonight! More bowl games... And fantasy football playoff line-ups are due tomorrow!
  • How are those New Year's resolutions going?
  • Big rain storm supposed to hit CA tonight...

Wednesday, January 02, 2008

2008 Predictions

2007 Wrap...

  • First... In 2007, I had an 8.3% return. Catching the summer correction is why I did better than the SP500.  Missed the other two major corrections, though.
  • I'm also now at 50-50 on my bowl bets.  Sheez.  Hawaii and Illinois.  LOL.  WHAT WAS I THINKING?  But, more games to go...  Including West Virginia tonight.

OK, lets go to 2008 PREDICTIONS!

  • First, I had a dream last night that the government had created a program to turn everyone into zombies.  The reason was because a killer virus was going to wipe out the population, and the government had decided to turn everyone into the living dead, so that we'd all be immune from the virus.
  • But, THAT'S NOT MY 2008 PREDICTION.  It was just a dream!  Or was it...
  • Many predicting a rebound in financials this year.  I'm careful on that one, because it could be tricky early in the year.  We're heading up to confession season (earnings), and I wouldn't bet ahead of that.  Maybe after that.  But many lists I've seen have C, BAC, and WM on it.  Patience!
  • I'm 100% long.  The Presidential Election Year is normally a good one for stocks.  Years ending in 8 are usually good.  So despite today's fear and gloom slamming stocks, I think we're heading higher.  Buying opportunity!
  • My prediction?  SP500:  1675.   Continued slow growth, low unemployment, low inflation, and no recession.  Housing will continue to slide, but housing inventories will begin to come down as new construction continues to slow and people decide to just live in their homes and make their monthly payments.
  • No zombies.
  • This morning on CNBC, Cramer predicted energy and oil would be the winning ticket this year.
  • On Saturday's Fox Business Block, the 2008 picks were

Bulls and Bears:

Tobin Smith: Emcore (EMKR)

Pat Dorsey: American Express (AXP)

Gary B Smith: Bank Of America (BAC)

Scott Bleier: Marteck Biosciences (MATK)

Patricia Powell: Potash of Saskatchewan (POT)


Gary Kaltbaum: Oracle (ORCL )

Charles Payne: Washington Mutual (WM )

Jill Schlesinger: BLDRS Emerging Markets 50 ADR Index (ADRE)

Peter Schiff: streetTRACKS Gold Shares (GLD)

Cashin' In:

Wayne Rogers: BE Aerospace (BEAV )

Matt McCall: CNH Global (CNH )

Jonas Max Ferris: Nakoma Absolute Return Fund (NARFX )

Jonathan Hoenig: CurrencyShares Mexican Peso (FXM )

Other thangs...

  • In these internet days, shouldn't websites be making cash via page views and clicks, rather than monthly subscription dues?
  • I searched The Google for "free realmoney subscription" and came up with squat.  Except maybe for folks with an .edu email.  So I guess another year will go by without me reading it.  LOL. 
  • But I do read Minyanville.  Love the Buzz and Bantor.  So as the days go on, more clips and quotes from the 'ville.  No Huffy and Boo vid inserts, though.  
  • Obama vs. Huckabee?  Ugh.
  • Nothing like starting off 2008 with "economic worry."  Nice day in the mart, eh?

In Edit: Thanks to the anon email about my zombie dream that sort of mimics the plot of the movie I am Legend. I haven't seen or heard anything about the film, but I did fall asleep with the radio on last night. Must've heard a commercial or commentary about it while sleeping. LOL. Zombies.