Tuesday, January 02, 2007

Happy New Year 2007!

  • A "New Year's Resolutions" reminder: The gym will be crowded today!
  • Market closed today.  Futures are up, indicating that the Santa Claus Rally could continue for a bit.   We're also in the 401(k) contribution part of the month.  That should hold things up for 2007 initially.
  • For 2006, my total return was 16.99%.  (Can I round it up to 17%?  Please?)   Back in November, I mentioned that I was beating the SP500 by .5%.  I was able to improve over the last month even with a large cash position by increasing my short-term trades.  While the total market mostly moved sideways for the last month of the year, I was able to tack on a few percent to beat the SP500 by a bit more.  Of course, the large cash position since my September adjustments really acted like an anchor.  Fortunately, lower beta stocks were pretty strong and the Nasdaq underperformed for the year anyways!
  • Going forward, the Black Box is skeptical of the market's ability to move much higher without some correction or consolidation.  I concur.  Sentiment numbers are extremely bullish.  I plan on keeping my timeframes short for now, with lower beta holdings and some cash on the sidelines.  No reason to be a hero, Hiro.  I anticipate there will be at least one buyable dip in 2007, and that's where I'll load back up with beta.
  • Barry Ritholtz on Insider Selling"Insiders have been taking advantage of the stock run up from July to year's end to sell into the strength."  I also think one of the reasons for selling is plain and simple diversification.  Many people still have that 2000-2 bear market fresh in their minds.
  • Let me also go out on a limb on some 2007 Predictions!

In the TV show "24" Agent Jack Bauer will solve the case 11 hours into the drama, leaving the Fox network scrambling to fill 13 hours of primetime TV. 

In a new scientific health study, it turns out that test subjects who ate the most trans fats, the least amount of fiber, the most amount of simple carbohydrates and processed foods, drank coffee and colas instead of water, and who drank the most alcohol lived longer and healthier lives than those who centered their diets on fruits, vegetables and whole grains.  The study concludes, "Potato chips and beer are the new health foods. And don't be bashful with the bacon."

President George Bush's popularity surges to historic highs when he takes over the Saturday Night Live intro skit and parodies himself.  Meanwhile, Will Forte moves into the White House, ends the war in Iraq, balances the budget, eliminates the national debt, bridges the gap between the rich and poor, creates an affordable national health care system, and replaces America's oil and gas infrastructure with environmentally-friendly renewable energy.

Donald Trump penalizes the losing team in "The Apprentice" by forcing them to watch Rosie O'donnell on "The View."

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