Wednesday, January 31, 2007

Beware of Oncoming Trains

  • Normally, the work flow in the office is such that I have time to jot down thoughts as the day progresses. This hasn't been the case the past couple of weeks.  I think normalcy will return shortly, as long as the light at the end of the tunnel isn't a train!
  • Meanwhile, the market liked what the Fed had to say and started ramping soon after the huddle broke.  It helps to lose a few of the more-hawkish members this year!  Also, we're at the monthly strength cycle where 401(k) money is dollar-cost averaged into mutual funds, which acts as buying pressure and can help keep things floating.  The sad news, is that February is the weakest of the seasonally strong months.  With the Fed out of the way for now, perhaps we'll see something that breaks us out of the channeling market.
  • I continue to hold low-beta positions and some cash.  Had my fingers ready on the wrong quick-flip on the Fed release.  I was hoping for the snap down after the announcement, and I'd have faded that by buying beta for a quick flip on a reversal.  Didn't happen, so I didn't do anything. 
  • Gold seemed to like the Fed's no action.
  • The Google (GOOG) released earnings today, and things looked good.  But what's up with the stock price afterhours?  Down a little.  It seems like a $10 move is a big deal, but if this was a $25 stock it'd be like a 50-cent move.  The stock doesn't seem like it's done much lately.  Nor has the market, that's true.  But this is one of the leaders, and like AAPL it seems to have run into a headwind.
  • OK, I've about had it with the American Idol tryouts.  Lets get to the competition.
  • Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez is now officially a dictatorVenezuela's Congress on Wednesday granted President Hugo Chavez powers to rule by decree for 18 months as he tries to force through nationalizations key to his self-styled leftist revolution.  If you're feeling a sense of deja vous, maybe it's recollection of a history class on 1930's Germany.  I do feel for companies that have business investments in Venezuela, as Chavez seems likely to take control.
  • I'm sure Microsoft's Vista is a step up, but I don't feel the need to run out and upgrade the operating system.  I imagine whenever I do need a new PC, that's when I'll have Vista.  Until then, that gives Mr. Softee a chance to get all the bugs fixed.  Okay, not all of them.   Some, right?
  • I've got some squares for the Super Bowl!  Yah, I was out a few days a couple weeks ago and missed out on the Super Bowl pools.  But now I have some squares in one.  I'm good.
  • I think I like the Bears and the points.  Defense and a running game.  Plus points.  I like Manning and would like to see him win one, but the Bears might win this outright.  I'm not a fan of either team, so a high-scoring back and forth game would be fantastic.  Maybe some OT. 

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