* I didn't even have a chance to check out the markets today, but generally the first few days of a new month see new money added to mutual funds as 401(k) contributions hit.
* I check out the Google and Lycos top searches, and see that Tara Reid is in there for something called Nipplegate. I don't think that sounds work friendly, do you? (Note to self: Remember to follow-up at home later!)
* Seems like many here at the Fun Factory have extended their Thanksgiving weekend a few days. It is tough coming back after a long weekend.
* Eli Whitney's Cotton Gin makes lousy martinis.
* Yahoo has a Buzz Index of top search movers. Susan St. James and Dick Ebersol top the list. That is quite a tragedy, btw. I can't imagine what they're going through losing their son.
* Did you see that there's a reality show where competing teams are cast as the castaways from Gilligan's Island and try to escape the island? I ain't watching. Probably ain't watching. Will Mary Ann be making coconut pies? Will the Professor make a radio out of palm leaves?
* Rumor is that Ken Jennings lost on Jeopardy! Am I just too cynical? Because I recently rewatched the movie Quiz Show... and... hah! I guess the question to the answer "This 70,000 employee company does most of it's business during one time of the year" isn't "What is Fed-Ex?"
* I'm still positive on this economy. Seems to me there is lots of wall of worry stuff out there to keep the bull market alive.
* Tom Ridge resigns as Homeland Security Chief. Was that his title? Hey, Chief!
* Do you find it funny that the NBA's Golden State Warriors are usually out of the playoff hunt before the Thanksgiving Turkey is off the dining room table? (If not sooner...) Geez, in some years by Veterans Day!
* I'm tired of winter already. And it's not even winter yet!
* What is HR Block?
Tuesday, November 30, 2004
* I didn't even have a chance to check out the markets today, but generally the first few days of a new month see new money added to mutual funds as 401(k) contributions hit.
Monday, November 29, 2004
* Booking the loss in TIVO, down 7% from my buy. Can't win 'em all... It was showing weakness after earnings, and then more weakness as the rest of the market rallied. Folks don't want advertising in their video recordings is the buzz in the press. I'd rather have positive hype.
* Netflixin'... Day After Tomorrow started out okay, but then kind of de-evolved to a lame mess... Bringing Down the House with Steve Martin and Queen Latifah was great! Loved it! Finaly, a decent script for Steve Martin.
* I think I overdosed on leftovers and football over the weekend!
* Market now down as I type... I think the dip is buyable at some point.
* Looking at the top MSN search terms... Sharon Reed is still up there. But I see folks have the holidays on their minds, as Christmas screensavers and wallpaper are moving up! Have you started Christmas shopping? One thing I refuse to do, is shop over the Thanksgiving weekend.
* So, Julia Roberts had her twins... Did your office have a "name the babies" contest? Anyone have Phinnaeus and Hazel? WINNER!
Friday, November 26, 2004
* The day after Thanksgiving is normally up, and looks like it so far. Kind of interesting that the Semiconductors are in the red as I type. Sold the Google stock. I think the market needs a pullback, and it might give me another entry point later. I still think we have until early December for this rally. So if we get a down day or two early next week, I'll get more aggressive.
* You think the dollar is going to continue its slide? Seems like everyone just noticed the falling dollar the past couple weeks. I'm reading blogs and message boards where folks are buying Euros or thinking about it. Boy, I'm sure not going to do that. I wonder what contrarians are thinking here... Dollar rally?
* Netflixin'... Tomb Raider II: The Cradle of Life. I liked it. Kind of all over the place, but it was enjoyable. Then again, I could watch Angelina Jolie knit a scarf and give it a thumbs up.
* Yeah, I got sucked in and watched that Seinfeld special last night. After The Apprentice of course. Andy was driving me nuts, though he seems very strong and I thought he had a shot at all the marbles. Jen needs to go. I think Ivana might be next to go, though. Although, from the previews of next week, looks like she drops her skirt for cash! The Seinfeld special was just so addicting, I couldn't turn it off.
* I wonder how Martha Stewart enjoyed Thanksgiving?
* The last place I'd go today? The mall. No thanks!!!
* Bush seeking funds for abstinence education. How much does it cost to say "Don't do it?"
Wednesday, November 24, 2004
* I missed the survey on the best holiday pie on CNBC. Now I'll never know.
* Surprise, surprise, Sgt. Carter! Stocks are up! I think the market closes up, and the rally continues on the half-day action on friday. Just a guess.
* Fleck has a warning up at MSN on the pension crisis, both Social Security and private pensions.
* Thumbs up, on Netflix. I like my DVDs by mail. They're customer service is great, too.
* I'd say my favorite pie is blueberry, but I'm not much of a pie person. If I never had pie again, it probably wouldn't bother me too much. Same thing with pastries and sweets. I can skip 'em.
* Did you read about the grilled cheese sandwich that has an image of the Virgin Mary that fetched $28,000? Heck, you can probably get one made at my cafe here at the Fun Factory for $3, and the grill cook might even arrange the grease so you get some image on the bread for ya.
Tuesday, November 23, 2004
* Lots of discussion on Ron Artest et al around the radio dial. At least now he can spend some time promoting his new CD.
* That's all she wrote for Dan Rather. Kind of a flame-out ending to a long career.
* Movie reviews with a bite of satire! Great site. Having just watched the "13 Going on 30" DVD, I thought the review was hillarious. I liked the movie, FWIW.
* So the market found a bid. Surprise, surprise, Sgt. Carter. Now, just gotta hope for some good old historical reliability on two low-volume trading days. We shall see. I'd like a rally with my pumpkin pie, please!
* I wonder what Michael Moore is doing today?
* It's kind of nice to see politics take a back seat. It gets a little time consuming following all the blather around the elections. Now, back to the real world.
* I wonder if someone will be taking Donald Trump to the boardroom for his roll as project manager of the Taj Mahal casino? At least he has The Apprentice to fall back on...
* Despite all my calm trading methodologies which serve me well, I can't help but let emotion get the best of me from time to time. Just call it what it is: Gambling. Or, maybe wreckless speculation. Sometimes it works. Sometimes (usually) it doesn't. With that in mind, pen me down for buys in Google and Tivo. Hopefully, it'll end up better than my last trip to the casino! Oh, and Citigroup. GOOG, TIVO, and C are the tickers.
* Why Google? Just Thanksgiving rally speculation. Snug stop loss if I'm wrong on it. Which, I could be. It's way up there in the stratosphere. I won't ride it down, holding and hoping.
* Why Tivo? They're getting blasted today after earnings, and I think they're better than that. Just anecdotal sightings. Comments from coworkers on how they want one. Etc. More hard disk size, DVD burning, etc. I dunno. Just a trade.
* Why C? Pullback, nice yield. This one closer to my trading rules than emotional greed taking over. We'll see. I'm more tempted to hold on to C for awhile than the others.
* None of the above is a recommendation. Either I'll look brilliant in hindsight; or, another documented example of why it's just best to buy the index and ignore the noise!
Monday, November 22, 2004
* I think there is some mental condition out there called "shortweekitus," which shuts down ones ability to do much work whenever a holiday(s) falls in a week. I've noticed this disease here at the Fun Factory today. Lots of laughing, talking, and emailing; while not much work getting done. It'd bother me, but I seem to have caught it, too. Seems like keeping my hands washed and not picking my nose haven't stopped the spread to my office!
* So, I'm looking at the top MSN searches, and see Susan Selles. Who the heck is that? I had to click to find out. Oh brother! More? Sharon Reed. CLICK... Hmm, I don't get that one. Vibe awards - wait, I don't know if that one is work safe or not. Better avoid that one and move on.
* Tivo reported after hours. I dunno. Doesn't look that great to me. I'm not sure of their longevity. I can go buy a different digital video recorder that uses free TV Guide program listings. Why subscribe to yet another monthly fee?
* Saturday Night Live had a President Bush skit, where he's doing an Apprentice style boardroom firing. Actors playing Powell, Rice, and Rumsfield were on the firing line. It was funny; but I turned off SNL right before midnight, it was just bad.
* Kazaa now offers free phone calls over the web, via the Skype software. I wonder when internet phone calls will replace our current landline systems?
* Pacers' Artest, O'Neal and Jackson respond.
* I'd rather go to a sports bar than the actual sporting event. What do you think?
* The market? Well, Thanksgiving week tends to be positive. On the weak opening, I was wondering if this was going to be an exception to the rule, but looks like the buyers stepped in.
* Netflixin'... Watched "13 going on 30" and liked it. Love is a Battlefield!
* The media reports only the bad news from Iraq, but here is some good news.
* I love the Thanksgiving holiday. Lots of time off. No gift giving. Good meal. Time with friends and family. Football and NBA. It's the best.
* Old habits die hard after all.
* NBA news... I think all those NBA players should've been tossed for the season. And those fans should be prosecuted as well.
* The Seinfeld DVD release is all the news, as is the thursday night reunion special. See this? Are you going to buy the DVDs or have you seen enough of the reruns already?
* Hmm, maybe I should've followed that Microsoft sell signal I got, eh? Greed kills.
* Life at the Fun Factory is pretty relaxed this week. Another great plus to Thanksgiving. People tend to have a pretty good disposition. Enjoy!
Friday, November 19, 2004
* Democrats still haunted over 2000, are now trying to conduct a recount in Ohio 2004. File it under "sore losers."
* Stock market? Fridays tend to move opposite of the trend, as folks lock in profits. We're in dire need of a healthy pullback or consolidation. Next week is the week after options expiration, and that tends to be negative, but with Thanksgiving holiday in there, it might buck that trend. The following week is the begining of December, which should be positive and Microsoft's dividend hits, too. We shall see how it plays out. I always try and guess what the market will do, but if I'm wrong, that's okay. Stock prices will tell the true tale...
* I don't know if I'll see the movie "Alexander" or not, but there is some outrage over the suggestion that Alexander the great was homosexual. I don't think it was ever brought up in my 7th grade history class that Alexander liked walking on both sides of the street. Do you recall? Is this just Hollyweird?
* The fallout from Merck's drug snafu is now being felt by other drug companies. Isn't that how it goes? One company announces it has problems, then the fear spreads. Hard to hold individual stocks and guess what fear or greed will do.
* Are stocks down because it's fridays options expiration? Crude is higher, too. Looks like bonds are taking a whack. REITs seem to look a little toppy lately.
* On The Apprentice? Trump did the right thing. Wes and Maria had to go. Jen sure stole Ivana's limelight, eh? This was the best week for Ivana, and Jen swooped right in and stole her thunder! The darn Fembot!
Thursday, November 18, 2004
* Congressman Paul Ryan was on Moneytalk this last weekend. Larry Kudlow was guest hosting for Bob Brinker. I thought it was a great segment for those interested in tax reform and the privatization of Social Security.
* The stock market acts tired. But, good grief, after Applied Materials came out and said bad things late yesterday, the market holds up well. Everyone is expecting a pullback. Yes, someday. Must be lots of eager buyers out there who missed the move up.
* Maybe Bruce Springsteen was right after all!
* A TV show that features the top 100 movie quotes? That seems like a ratings yawner.
* Did I just hear Rush Limbaugh call the new Clinton Presidential Library the "Clinton Presidential Library and Massage Parlor?" I only caught part of it while flipping stations, so sorry if it's a misquote. Funny, though.
* My favorite movie quote? "I'm your huckleberry" by Val Kilmer in Tombstone.
* I wonder how many times Val Kilmer gets asked to say "I'm your huckleberry?"
* Might as well milk the Clinton Library for jokes... I wonder if they'll hire Playboy bunnies for librarians? Or hookers? "Hmm, the library sure seems to be taking in a lot of revenue under the category of 'overdue book fees.' Looks like about $500 per overdue book late fee."
* I don't like the Yahoo message boards much, but I was curious why the strong move in a stock I own. I go to Yahoo, and STRONG BUY touts all over the place spreading rumor of a takeover. Lots of volume in those buys, so I don't know what's up. Maybe nothing. But those message posters are nutty.
Wednesday, November 17, 2004
* People starting to get a little too excited about the stock market. What a great few weeks. At some point, there will be a pullback. When? If I had to guess, the likely spot is sometime around the first week of December. Just a guess, and short-term guesses are usually wrong!
* I watched the movie "The Hulk" last night. Yeesh, two hours of my life GONE. It's a horrible movie. A real stinker. Nothing good to say about it. Not a thing.
* Did you see that an apple of day is actually a good idea?
* Do you care if Sears and Kmart are merging? Will you even notice?
* I saw some phones being advertised as having 3D sound. What's that? "Stan! It actually sounds as if you're calling from Malaysia! COOL!" I don't get it. Heck, mine sounds as if folks are calling from a tin can.
* Did you see Anna Nicole Smith on the music awards show? Good grief. I'll have half of whatever she was taking.
Tuesday, November 16, 2004
* Confirming what many have been predicting, the reality show craze seems on the decline. Even The Apprentice has seen viewership wane this season.
* The PPI comes out today strongest in 15 years or so, but excluding food and energy, it's not that big of a deal. Bonds aren't flinching much. Plus, energy has been on the decline recently.
* Condi Rice nominated for Secretary of State! Way to go, Condi!
* Traditional oven turkey vs. deep fried turkey?
* Stocks moving lower today. Will buyers step in? I'm just guessing, but I think November finishes strong as does the first week of December. I think many have missed the move up, and will buy any dip. Also, Microsoft's dividend will dump over $30 Billion in investor's accounts on December 2nd, and that could keep a bid under stock prices. (Or, it could go for presents under the Christmas tree.)
* I've watched some of America's Next Top Model this season, and while it's entertaining, I think it's had its run. I've skipped the rest of the reality shows.
* Deep fried turkey is pretty good.
* The CPI will be released tomorrow, which should show if price increases are being passed along to consumers.
* I hope not too many folks (with long term horizons) are stuck with adjustable rate mortgages. Greenspan could continue raising rates here. We've had a nice long period near historic lows for long-term rates. Hopefully, folks took advantage of that. The bigger question, may be what do rising rates mean to real estate speculation? And ultimately, housing prices?
Monday, November 15, 2004
* Lets dedicate monday to the Boomtown Rats.
* The Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation (PBGC) has seen their deficit double the past year. Does that seem to be an issue to anyone out there?
* Microsoft, which I still own, is now trading ex-dividend, and rallying. I didn't dump it despite having the sell signal last week on it. I wish I could follow my timing signals to the letter, but real-time events get in the way and I just made a guess. The market is moving, and that $3 dividend will be spent. Either on more investments or Christmas presents.
* Larry Kudlow was filling in for Bob Brinker on saturday's Moneytalk. Brinker was back on sunday. Larry was extremely optimistic, and thinks the stock market is undervalued. Brinker seemed a little concerned for folks who are in adjustible rate mortgages in an environment where the Fed is raising rates. Brinker seemed concerned about housing, too.
* Netflixin'... Two Weeks Notice with Sandra Bullock and Hugh Grant arrived, was viewed, and has been mailed back. Yeesh, that one was a stinker. The best news regarding that? Hugh Grant says he's done making movies. I like sappy romantic comedies, but this one just didn't work for me.
* Lots of resignations in the Bush Cabinet for the second term. Not surprising. Happened in Clinton's second term, too. It's hard work! Most of these folks can make a lot more money working lots less hours somewhere else.
Friday, November 12, 2004
Microsoft, which I still own despite having a sell signal on indicators I follow, now is the leading OS in handhelds. (Microsoft Gets a Leg Up in Handhelds).
I bring this up, because remember when Netscape was the leading browser, and Microsoft entered the battle? Remember when Palm had the leading operating system in handhelds? Remember when Google was the leading search engine? OH - IT STILL IS. For now.
For sure, Microsoft has had some failures. Their java J++ programming language comes to mind. As does WebTV and their Tivo-like Ultimate TV. But they've had a second coming of sorts when it comes to the internet programming language of choice, as their .Net is now ahead of Java in new development. We'll see how they figure out the whole TV and home entertainment venue, as they keep poking and prodding in the area, with Windows Media XP and all. They've done really well with Xbox despite a slow start, and "Halo 2" was all over the news this week. I don't know how they're doing against Sony's Playstation or Nintendo, but my guess is that Microsoft is doing well.
It's just interesting, as the Google stock soars, that maybe GOOG investors are ignoring the MSFT camel's nose in their search engine tent. Just a thought.
* There is justice! Scott Peterson found guilty guilty guilty!
* The stock market is just racing at the close again. Everyone still expecting a pullback? One thought is that maybe the $3 dividend by Microsoft is about $30 billion in dividends that has to go somewhere. More stocks? Plasma TVs from Best Buy? We'll see...
* I think Baked Doritos are just as good as the regular Doritos.
* Michael Moore was one of the big winners in 2004. He made a ton. Bush winning last week actually will turn into another financial boon for Moore, who is planning a sequel to "Fahrenheit 9/11."
* Large stocks have been moving, so isn't the next thing that small speculative stocks get ramped up? Just trying to remember the life-cycle of a bull leg up.
* First, there were annoying pop-ups. Now? Have you noticed how large content sites put up a page-filling advertisment when you first arrive, and then force you to either click "continue" or "skip this ad?" I hate it. CBS Marketwatch and Forbes do this. I have to click twice to get to the content. I have no idea what they're advertising, because I'm searching for the "skip this ad" link.
* Does "The Apprentice" have continuity issues? This is a good article from Forbes, derided above, that asks "Did you notice that during the bridal salon task, the competitors were wearing shorts and tshirts and it's obviously warm summer weather, but when the firings take place, it's cold and rainy?" Hmmm! Conspiracy!
* Does Ron Artest think he's P Diddy? Can P Diddy play hoops? Maybe there can be a reality show where they switch places...
* Arafat was one of this world's biggest terrorists. The world reaction to his death is somewhat bizarre and troubling.
* I use Amibroker to develop and backtest trading strategies. It's pretty slick. I generally just make intermediate to long-term trades, and skip the daytrading. I just have had a rough time trying to make money in short periods.
* I saw the movie "Intermission" this week via DVD. It is an Irish movie, so the first few minutes there's a bit of a language barrier but after that, it's funny how you start understanding the accent. At first, I was like "Good grief, are there subtitles?" The movie was kind of interesting.
* I got a sell signal on Microsoft, which I own as of this typing.
* I went to go see the movie "The Incredibles" yesterday, but all the shows were sold out! I hear very good things about that movie!
* The Apprentice? I was expecting Trump to fire the whole team last night!
Thursday, November 11, 2004
* A big shout out from The Learning Curve to this nation's Vets. Outstanding job, and thank you very much!
* Microsoft, which I own, unveiled a new search engine today or so I've been led to believe. I searched for "Larry Kudlow blog" and it found a bunch of stuff quickly, with Kudlow's blog right at the top. I guess the index funds have to rebalance, and buy about $3B worth of Microsoft stock. At least that's what CNBC said. Whenever MSFT is moving up, it's tough for the indices to go down.
* Yassir Arafat dies. So, does this guy have $6B dollars?
* As I'm typing the market ramps higher. Everyone is expecting a pullback that will be bought furiously. While they're waiting, the market keeps going up. It'll come at some point I suppose. Can't think it's that far away from a pullback. Many credit the election for the ramp, but it started before then. Notice oil prices dropping like stone, too.
* The Lakers sure look awful. While the Heat look very good. Tell me again, between Kobe and Shaq, who is the franchise player?
* It's kind of interesting, that with interest rates moving up, Annaly Mortgage, which I own, isn't taking a hit. Last time interest rates were moving up, sellers were dumping REITs.
* Wasn't it just over a week ago that John Kerry was going state to state, telling everyone how this is the worst economy since Hoover? What do you think he's doing this week? When is the next time you think Kerry will go goose hunting?
Wednesday, November 10, 2004
* Another day, another financial talk show, and more questions on Microsoft, which I own. People think that the $3 dividend is free money; when, in fact the stock price will drop $3. I think enough people don't understand this. What's the percentage of people who call talk shows? Very small. So, if they seem to have this misunderstanding, it has to be extremely widespread. Just a thought on the recent move in MSFT. They also have released Halo 2, and a search engine. So, you think that will impact Google stock at all? I do.
*Alberto Gonzales is rumored to be named the new Attorney General, replacing John Ashcroft. Elaine Chao is rumored to be leaving her post, and moving to the U.N. children's body UNICEF.
* Another diet shocker: Those with big waists might have future heart trouble! Are we spending dollars researching the obvious here?
* What's next, a study telling us that it's brighter during the day, and darker during the night?
* Maybe a study that shows us that people who spend time in the sun, tend to have more sunburns that people who stay indoors.
* Or a study that shows us that people who drink 20 glasses of water a day, have to urinate more frequently than people who drink 5 glasses of water a day.
* On a serious note, a new study says Vitamin E supplements might shorten lives. Good grief. I wonder how many people are taking E?
* I can't remember who it was on Fox's financial shows last saturday who thought Merck might be a good buy. Certainly lots of questions regarding future lawsuits.
Tuesday, November 09, 2004
* Some Asian woman got booted off the Scott Peterson trial for doing her own research. Maybe she did a Google search on Scott Peterson. LOL.
* George Bush's 2nd term agenda seems fairly bold. He's got a lot on his plate. Especially adding in the deficit. If he just keeps the economy moving along and finishes up the job in Iraq, that'd be quite a bit. He has the Congress, so we'll see if he nibbles at Social Security and tax reform. Won't be easy.
* There just has to be a better way for a vending machine to dispense a soda. Dropping it down a chute makes for a surprise when you open it up.
* Have you been deluged with Cortislim ads saying how easy it is to lose weight? I like the guy who says something like, if you're only trying to lose a few pounds, move on buddy; this ain't for you! I think diet and exercise works better than any over the counter product.
* Cisco (CSCO) seems to be nuking the afterhours. Looks like they have (gasp) competition! Might not be a bad thing, but traders are probably looking for a reason to lock in gains. Everywhere I read, it seems like folks are expecting a pullback and then a resumption of the rally.
* John Ashcroft and Don Evans out of the Administration. You think Ashcroft's departure will make the Democrats happy, or is that possible after last tuesday?
* You like fried turkey?
* Microsoft, which I own, did announce their dividend. From Forbes: "The dividend will be paid Dec. 2 to shareholders of record Nov. 17." So, whether the stock was up on that or other news (Halo 2), I don't know.
* I'll add some links that I frequent. There are many, but I'll put down the ones I look at everyday.
* Not getting too much news, is the United Airlines pension announcement. I wonder if this is the tip of the iceburg? Pensions might be in trouble.
Is Arafat dead? It's just a matter of time. It'll be interesting to see the power struggle that follows. You know the saying, "the devil you know is better than the devil you don't know." I think this brings some uncertainty to what comes next in the Middle East.
Monday, November 08, 2004
* I just have to point out a good blog entry by Larry Kudlow over on The Club for Growth, To Have and Have Not. It's a voting breakdown from various income groups, showing that the Democrat "class warfare" message really didn't take hold in 2004.
* Bill Fleckenstein writes the Contrarian Chronicles on MSN. He seems to always be bearish, but my friends seem to follow him and do well. FWIW!
* Do you think the iPod fad has longevity, or will a better mousetrap come along?
* Cancel the weekend getaway plans for Falluja...
* Got type 2 diabetes, or a family history of it? Read this! Again, I say this often, but diet and lifestyle is responsible for a ton of what ails us. Just think the impact on America's health care costs if folks would take responsibility for themselves by eating right and exercising!
* Can you imagine anyone using email these days without a spam filter? Heck, I get like 300-400 a day that automatically get deleted. Another 10 or so seem to sneak through. If I didn't have the filter, I'd have to change my email address very often.
* Lots of angst out there among Democrats.
* After 9 straight up days, the SP500 was down today. The last time the SP500 was up 9 days in a row was 1997. Or so I heard on Gary Kaltbaum's radio show. I assume that's good data.
* Watched two DVDs this weekend. "Chicago" was so boring. "Love Actually" which was okay at best. It had it's moments, and I like the romantic comedies. It just didn't have enough comedy.
* About this time of year, I get burned out on football. I've watched some NBA, and the Lakers just don't have anything in the middle. I can't see them advancing too far. The Kings look older and slower, but lets see how they do at home. The Rockets look interesting with McGrady out there.
* Best show on TV right now? Desperate Housewives. The 2nd-place show ain't even close!
* Microsoft, which I own, is planning a $3 dividend in the future. Now, everyone should know that the stock will be reduced in price by the amount of the dividend. But I'm watching to see if the stock runs into the dividend, just because I'm not convinced enough folks know this. Lots of people I hear on radio shows seem to think this is free money. Enough to make the stock run? I don't know. Just watching.
* Hugh Grant was the top bill in "Love Actually." But it was more a series of stories weaved together, than a movie starring Hugh Grant. Assuming one can believe Hugh Grant as the Prime Minister of England, flirting with the staff.
The market has rallied fast and strong! If you look at the charts, the market has basically come up to the top of the recent trading range. The SP500 broke out slightly, but not enough to negate the trading range just yet. As a bull, the one thing I don't want to see is the rally to lose steam and for us to begin back down. That would indicate to me that the trading range is still in effect.
What would be really healthy in my opinion, would be to see us consolidate by moving sideways, and then busting up and over the trading range.
Friday, November 05, 2004
* This week seems like it's been a long one!
* The stock market rally? I'm still long, but it looks like the rally is getting tired. I think the rally is for real. The election stress is behind us. The risk of terrorists trying to affect the election didn't happen. In addition, economic growth continues. Today's job numbers prove that.
* What's next for the market? Who knows. We do look a little extended. I do think the rally continues, but we're due for a pullback somewhere in here. I bet folks who missed this run are waiting for a dip, so that they can deploy some cash into some of the hot names. I still like the diversified approach most of all.
* One of my coworkers had a funny line yesterday. I can't recall what we were talking about, but he said "I had no idea we were homeless. I just thought we camped out a lot."
* Jim Cramer over on realmoney.com has been talking up cable stocks for awhile. I agree with him. I think video on demand is going to be big, and steal subscribers back from satellite. Especially combining the broadband internet services (and services to come). I'm not sure how much of this is priced into the cable stocks already, and I don't own any directly.
* Did you see both Kill Bill Volume 1 and Volume 2? I finaly saw them. Wow!
* Post-election analysts are at it, trying to figure out where Kerry went wrong. I think he spent too much time preaching to the choir. His issues were rallying folks who already planned on voting for him. He really didn't go after moderates at all.
* Bonds are taking a whack today with the good job numbers. As are REITs, which are interest rate sensitive.
* I'm bringing the cartoons back...
* Speaking of getting whacked, Raj got whacked on The Apprentice last night. I just couldn't imagine that guy as a boss. Seems like a guy I'd go out to happy hour with and try and pick up women. I think Ivana has to go. Predict a winner? I'm leaning to Andy at this point. He's good.
Wednesday, November 03, 2004
* The market rallies strong on the election resolution for Bush. Yet, late in the day it was like it ran out of gas. I wonder if we'll get a little pullback here? The test would then be if there is a bunch of money waiting on the sidelines to pounce on a 2nd chance at a year end run.
* Scientists Close in on Source of Cosmic Rays Hmm, I bet President Bush might say... "Don't they come from Cosmics?"
* Interesting relationship between oil and technology stocks. I'll put up a graph (and more of those in the future).
* So, what will a 2nd-term Bush administration do? Reform tax code? Strengthen Social Security? Wrap up the effort in Iraq? Appoint new Supreme Court justices?
* Any Democrats out there planning on moving to Canada? Canada says there's a waiting list. Takes about a year.
* Bush won. Kerry concedes. Game over. GOP picks up House and Senate seats.
* The stock market has a nice rally on. I wondered if we'd get a sell the news reaction. Well, maybe we're getting a "Thank God it's over" rally. The crowd is usually right for most of the trend. And we do have seasonality on our side. I'm letting it ride on the long side.
* Lakers won. Think Chris Mihm is going to score over 20 every night? I picked him up in my fantasy league just in case! Pistons also won. And the Mavs beat the sinking Kings.
* Yesterday, nobody here was talking about the election. Today, everyone has the electoral map up.
* After spending so much time on politics and the election, it's almost a relief to move on now. The market is rallying. Almost a sigh, "Thank goodness."
* The funny thing about politics, is that we'll rev the emotions back up in 2 years for the non-presidential election, and in another 2 years in 2008. Like the super bowl. We get to argue about our teams all over again!
* Like I mentioned earlier, the analysts are out there saying what does this mean for stocks? Which companies to own or not own based on a Bush win? I'm staying diversified. Although, I do note that there has been an interesting relationship between oil prices and technology stocks this year. Oil goes up, tech prices fall. Oil goes down, tech prices rise.
* Any Hollywood stars packing their bags for Canada after the Kerry loss?
* I think I'll watch Farenheit 911 tonight. LOL.
* Drug stocks are reacting well to the Bush win, no?
Tuesday, November 02, 2004
Update: Does the media want this to turn into a circus or what? Bush is up by 2% in Ohio with 97% of the vote in. It's a 125,000 vote lead. Not 1000 votes, but 125,000 votes. And they're trying to turn it into a soap opera like Florida in 2000. And I'm watching Fox! I know they're scared to call it wrong, but that's a big number. The uncounted votes would have to come in overwhelmingly for Kerry, but those votes aren't from Democrat strongholds.
John Edwards just came out and said that they weren't giving up, and they'd wait until tomorrow for all the votes to be counted. Looked like he's been crying. And not tears of joy, either.
* People seem to have a love affair with their political party, almost like a sports fan does with his or her favorite team.
* Some of the early calls for a Kerry landslide look to be wrong. It's way too early. I'm seeing some of the battleground states look like they're going red (to Bush). Reminds me of 2000, when the election day polls were wrong by a long shot. Kerry might win; Bush might win. It's really close.
* Drudge's website has been fun to follow. He's got an electoral map up, links to live data coming in at battleground Secretary of State websites, etc.
* This election has been a reality show. America is addicted!
* The only thing folks are doing here at the Fun Factory that's election related is leaving early!
* I don't know how late I'll stay up tonight.
* While I'm conservative generally, I do have a favorite political blog or two that are actually liberal. Check out The Left Coaster when you have a free minute. Some of the folks will challenge your views from time to time, and I think that's healthy. One of these days I 'll create a list of links. There are some conservative blogs that are excellent daily reads, too.
* As you know, it's impossible to argue politics and ever change anyone's mind. Back to the sports team analogy. Once a Dodgers fan, always a Dodgers fan. Don't bring up the Yankees or Giants, a'ight? But it's fun to debate and learn what motivates other folks. Again, I think it's healthy.
* How will the Lakers look post-Shaq Daddy? Chris Mihm is the man in the middle now, with Vlade hurtin'... But it's going to be the Kobe Show.
Bush fans: Don't give up. Ohio exits now showing a tie, as Bush voters must be showing up late. If he can do the same in Florida, it'll be back to a dogfight.
According to CNN, the GOP is picking up the Georgia Senate seat.
Remember in 2000, the exit polls predicted a Gore win. While it looks good for Kerry, don't get discouraged either way. There are Senate and House races, propositions, and lots of local issues on the ballot.
If you're a Democrat, Kerry needs help in the Congress (both House and Senate) if he's going to make good on those promises.
If you're a Republican, the goal is to prove the early polling wrong. And if it's Kerry, then the goal is to hold him to a stalemate for four years by denying him the Congress (both House and Senate). If it's Bush, then Bush will need Congress' help the next four years.
Try to get some sleep tonight. Remember, the Lakers are on late for a diversion!
Side note: Not one person here at the Fun Factory has even discussed the election today. I haven't heard even one word. Plenty of folks talking about the Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks NBA opener. But not one word on Kerry or Bush! Which truly amazes me in a so-called bitterly divided nation. Has the political machine over-hyped itself? Do folks really care as much as the media would like us to believe? Or are folks more interested in how the Lakers look in the post-Shaq era?
I think it's the latter... Have fun tonight, either way!
If you've followed the offshore betting site tradesports.com that is handicapping the race, it has had Bush as the favorite the whole way. Until now. Kerry is now listed as the favorite. It's not often you can make a bet as the game is being played!
(For the record, I have no interest in online gaming.)
After the results are in, every financial website, magazine, and TV show will come out with a recommendation special that feature what you should buy or sell based on who won. I think that's garbage. I think it's best to always stay diversified.
Another site I'm following today is CBS Marketwatch, which is a really good site IMHO!
Reading some commentary from The Street.com, the market sell off is being related to the early exit polls showing Kerry polling well. However, researching this a little further, he's not doing as well as Al Gore did in 2000 early polling. Also, as pointed out on Realmoney.com (paid version of TheStreet.com), the data is not adjust for who is showing up early. James De Porre ("Rev Shark") comments that women tend to vote early, and they favor Kerry.
Both sides are claiming shennanigans of some sort or another, so I hope if that's the case, they cancel each other out. I also hope the lawyers don't have much to do tomorrow. We need a clear winner!
Remember to vote. Exercise your right!
Following the results over at DRUDGE REPORT 2004. First round of exit polls has John Kerry leading Bush in all the battleground states. Almost immediately, the stock market sold off. I don't know why, because gridlock would probably be good for the markets. We've had a nice pre-election run-up, as folks anticipate a post-election rally. If we get a dip post-election, it'd be a sell the news reaction. I feel positive about the economy no matter who wins.
Wall Street is up pretty good so far, and one could argue that the markets are predicting a Bush win. After all, the theory is that Wall Street prefers Republicans, even though historically the market has performed better under Democrats.
Just to throw a wrench in the common thought, I wonder if Wall Street actually prefers gridlock. From 1994-2000, the politicians were neutralized with the Democrats in the White House and the Republicans in the Congress. They couldn't even agree on which day of week it was! If Kerry wins, will we return to that sweet political spot? Could the strong move up in the market the recent week be in anticipation of gridlock?
Another common thought, is that one buys the rumor and sells the news. No matter what the result is, will Wall Street tumble once the news is in?
No matter what happens today, get out and vote. The local news channels will be showing results all night, so instead of watching the election returns why not take a break for a few hours and watch opening night in the NBA? You deserve a break after non-stop news. Charles Barkley is extremely more entertaining than any polling results or interviews with political parties. And the new-look Lakers are the late game tonight!
Monday, November 01, 2004
FOXSports.com - Loud-mouthed Martin heads overrated list
This is an interesting article on the eve of the NBA season! I agree about Chris Webber, though. Not so much on AI; Iverson is all about Iverson, but he plays hard.
Another article up on the Underrated players.
Not sure about this list. It seems more like a sleeper Fantasy Basketball list.
"We need a change in leadership in this country. Once I'm elected, this big flag is coming down. And we're going to raise the French flag, the Russian Flag, the German flag, the United Nations flag and flags from all around the world."
"This is my plane. This is what a leader flies around the country in. You can't be a world leader and not have a plane like this. You can't fly around in the wrong plane going to the wrong places. My job is to spread freedom. I wake up everyday, wanting to spread freedom. Sometimes I wake up in this plane. That's my job! My opponent, he can't decide how he wants to travel. One day he's on a bus, the next day he's on a train. And with your help on tuesday, he won't get a plane like this. God Bless America!"