Wednesday, April 01, 2015

Market Thoughts

  • Heard that April is supposedly a strong month, with the ten days prior to tax day weak but the ten days after strong.  Okay.  Let's go with that. 
  • Market continues to sit near the highs with frustrating pullbacks of just a few percent but not making headway. The 150dma on the SP500 has held recent pullbacks and is somewhere near 2030ish.  Ish. 
  • March Madness... Wow, Notre Dame almost had Kentucky and it feels like that may have been the last gasp chance for anyone to beat em.  Although Wisconsin interesting...
  • Still long the market.  Sell in May warming up, stretching, and heading to on deck circle.  So is baseball season!
  • (Got MLB package, fwiw).
  • Monday's big rally given back the last two days. Churning. 
  • The market can't do nothin since $AAPL - Apple joined the Dow!
  • Got a new job. So. There is that.  
  • Finished the third season of House of Cards.  Eh.  Not as good as first two.  

Sunday, March 15, 2015

What's a blog?

Kind of funny how over the last decade the forum for opinion sharing has migrated from blogs to 140-character tweets. I just noticed that I hadn't written here for over a month, yet I have been sharing on Twitter.  It's probably been over a year since I did an audioboo/podcast!


Anyway...
  • I still think the market heads higher, with pullbacks here and there. Buy the dips should still work.  I remain nearly 100% long. 
  • The Fed will continue to keep rates low. Is there a reason not too?  Is there a danger of raising rates in a world where other countries are reducing rates?
  • Hillary Clinton: OMG.  Really? Isn't there a better candidate over there?  Ugh. 
  • March Madness! The conference tournaments have been great and the big dance starts soon.
  • Hey, I know the money is probably coming in on the UC Irvine Anteaters to walk away with March Madness, but my sleeper pick is that the Kentucky Wildcats come out-of-nowhere and win the whole shootin' match. 
  • I wonder if "sell in May" will work this year, and catch a pullback?  Gut feeling says "yes."  But you know, that could just mean a pullback to some obvious moving average and the up we go. 
  • (Am I too complacent about stocks, in a six-year bull market?)
  • $AAPL - Apple stock joins the Dow tomorrow!  Set your watch!


Sunday, February 08, 2015

Sunday Market Thoughts (and Swimsuit!)

  • What a week for stocks and Sports Illustrated swimsuit models!
  • Ok ... China version ... Mika V is her name.   
  • The stock market had an amazing week. I am still long with only a very small amount in cash.  I think the trend is higher even though the market is now flat for the year!  We are seeing lower energy costs, higher employment and wage growth which is good for the consumer and economy. 
  • Brian Williams stepping down from the NBC anchor desk during the investigation. Lots of folks on $TWTR  and with Photoshop having fun. My thoughts are that if the guy faked a story when his job is to tell the news, he should be fired.
  • Okay, have you seen the "plus sized" US Sports Illustrated Swimsuit model? That would pass for skinny in my office. 
  • $DIS - Disney earnings were outstanding. I own the stock and will continue to add over the years.  Buy and hold forever? Not sure but seems likely unless something changes.  Disney is an entertainment juggernaut. 
  • $TWTR - I think Twitter will be a long term winner but don't own any shares.  I think the earnings report was good. Everyone goes there for instant news.  Although trolling and arguing gets tiresome.  Maybe that's why there are a lot of people who are on Twitter but don't do anything. 
  • I prefer $FB and where Facebook could go over the years.  
  • Energy - my thoughts are to buy energy weakness and be patient. The stuff doesn't ever seem to be low for very long. Some of the names have already had big moves. The only thing I own is $XOM because it is huge and diversified. 
  • With the jobs number and the wage growth number, the worry now turns to the next Fed move and higher interest rates.  If the economy is improving! Taking a hit are stocks with yield as higher government interest rates are competition for utility stocks and REITs. Also the dividend paying large caps could take a hit. 
  • A stronger US dollar has meant that foreign denominated holdings take a hit on the exchange rate.  Of course now that the U.S. Dollar has had a big move one has to think that at some point it would be a good idea to buy as much foreign stuff as possible while the exchange rate is in the US favor.   The world continues to print money and avoid deflation, so who knows when the "right time" will be. Hard to time it but may make sense to start allocating there. I haven't yet. 
  • One of my worries is interest payments on the national debt. If rates rise, so do the payments on our debt as previous debt comes due and we have to refinance at current rates.  
  • Hey! Radio Shack declared bankruptcy! Man, that used to be the place to pick up some odd A/V part or wire before $AMZN.  Our shopping habits have evolved. 
***
Raining here in CA!  We need it but I don't like it on the weekends.  Anyway, it's a good day to watch TV. Maybe $DIS - ESPN.  And binge watch something on $NFLX.  That's what we do, right?

Thursday, January 29, 2015

Market Thoughts

It seems that the market has wanted to go down for awhile now, and only the periodic "more stimulus" press releases from central banks have created big rallies.  Look at how narrow stock leadership has been on the bounces.  While it's true that a rally is a rally is a rally, it's a bit unsettling to see "buying and holding" an index feels a lot like running in place these days. 


That being said, I am still long and diversified. I do have some cash and it is tempting to buy the dip. As usual.  
  • I thought $FB earnings were great.   I still think the Facebook will be one of those "I wish I would have bought it 10 years ago" kind of stocks. 
  • I also liked $LVS earnings. Las Vegas Sands also increased its dividend from $.50 to $.65.  That's a 30% increase! Try to get those returns on a Macau slot machine. 
  • Anyone else feeling a little suspicious about $BABA? Alibaba earnings numbers also bringing down $JD today. 
  • $AAPL is taking over the world. I wish I would have bought a ton of Apple prior to earnings.  Didn't we all know that everyone seems to have an iPhone 6 or 6 plus and that would translate to monster earnings?
I'm sitting here at $SBUX.  Starbucks is packed.  As usual. 

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

STOCKMAGEDDON

$SPY - maybe instead of fearing the 3' of snow that didn't happen, investors should have been more worried about the gap down today.  

Blame it on:
Currency exchange rates due to strong dollar
Cheap oil
Europe/Greece/Russia/ISIS
Weak earnings (due to combo of above things)
Weak Econ data (dittos)
Measles at Disneyland
Pick your favorite worry!  Multiple choices are allowed!
I still have a little cash and haven't even traded with it. This year looks a lot like last year so far. There is always something to worry about.  I think the worry and concern is actually bullish at this point.  There isn't rampant bullishness.  Most stocks haven't been leading anyway. The market is a floppin and a choppin. 
I am just being patient and not in panic mode.  I'm also not trying to flip every dip. I will probably buy some of the leading stocks at some point. You know the names that have been first to bounce back on dips...

Sunday, January 25, 2015

‎Greeks!

I'm not sure what the Greek election results will mean for the US market in the long term, but in the short term folks seem worried that a "radical left" emerged victorious.  I suppose this means more big government kinds of solutions, which don't work.  Also, when Greece "ran out of other people's money," they ran up large debts that they probably want forgiven.

Hey, not paying for it is one way of paying for it.  If it's forgiven anyway.

***

Greek radical left wins election, threatening market turmoil

Associated Press - Associated Press - Mon Jan 26 03:30:00 UTC 2015

ATHENS, Greece — A triumphant Alexis Tsipras told Greeks that his radical left Syriza party's win in...


Sent from Surface Pro

Thursday, January 22, 2015

Up to the 50dma

The major market indices rallied up and kissed the 50dma today, as the European Central Bank did as expected and announced they were going to print and print and print.  The goal being to keep interest rates low, pump up asset prices, try to avoid deflation, or just be seen as trendy and cool.  After all, everyone is doing it these days!

Stocks have faded the open yet again and then faded the fade.  I suppose some money could be made flipping that around, but I know if I tried it I would just get whipsawed. It works until either it doesn't or as soon as I try it!   I'd rather look at intermediate and longer term ideas. 
I'm still long the market.  I have been hesitant to play high beta names so far in 2015. Seems like the only things working are biotechs and airplanes.  I'm worried that when the party ends for the market, the biotech sector will take the biggest hit because that's where the momentum and  high beta stocks have been.  You know, up a ton, no earnings, and folks speculating on drugs in trial phases.  But I hope it ends well. Some of the new drug studies could yield some great new treatments and cures.  
Thursday already!
***
Kobe Bryant hurt his right shoulder last night against the Pelicans, and came back in and shot left handed?  Crazy.