Sunday, November 23, 2014

IBD Top 50 Stocks Strategy – 11/23/2014

Here is the latest on the IBD 50 stocks investing strategies vs. $SPY

image  Since the last update near the October lows, the market has raced ahead of the IBD 50 stocks.   For the week, there were 25 stocks up and 25 stocks down for the IBD 50.

VRX led the IBD 50, up 8.32% for the week.  The biggest loser for the IBD 50 was VIPS, down 7.32%.

The IBD 50 portfolios total return since 2/8/2014 are underperforming the SP500.  None of the strategies are beating the simple SP500 at this point. I would have expected to see the leading stocks lead, but there has been more volatility in some of the top stocks as measured by IBD.

The portfolio is sold at the closing price Friday night, and rebalanced into the make-up of the IBD top 50.  Dividends are excluded from total returns.

Trading costs $805.95.

image The IBD monthly strategy is also underperforming  the SP500.

All of the portfolios have a positive return for the month, but have a positive total return. 

The IBD 50 has 28 gainers and 22 losers in November.

AFSI is the top performer for the IBD 50, returning 13.91%.  The weakest stock in the IBD 50 so far is SLXP, losing 28.47%.

Trading costs $169.15

I will assume a $9.95 trading cost to sell last week’s or last month’s portfolio, and $9.95 to buy the new weekly or monthly portfolio.  (Imagine the costs of doing this with individual stocks, compared to using Motif.  Note that Motif limits the size of portfolios to 30 stocks).

The Top 25 holdings are listed at at Motif Investing.  (A check as of 3/31/2014 shows that the ability to view all holdings is limited to Motif members and IBD subscribers).

None of the above strategies are a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.  These are model portfolios constructed for entertainment only.

This is the IBD portfolio performance since 2/8/2014.  Each portfolio begins with $10,000 and then invests an equal amount in the top 5, 10, 25 and 50 IBD stocks at the closing prices on Friday for the weekly model, and at the closing prices on the last trading day of the month for the monthly model.  Since IBD changes the make up of their top stocks daily, this will only rebalance on Fridays or end of month.  It is assumed that trading costs are $9.95 to “buy” a model portfolio, and $9.95 to “sell” a model portfolio.  Thus, each weekly or monthly rebalance out of the previous portfolio and into the new portfolio costs $19.90.  Daily changes in the IBD 50 or stock rankings are not considered.  Changes in IBD’s overall market views are not considered.  Stop loss orders or other market timing strategies are not considered.  The value for SPY is based on buying 2/8/2014.

Based on a blog entry from Paladin Money.  See Investors Business Daily for more information on the IBD 50.  See Motif Investing for their IBD Top 25 portfolio, and the ability to construct your own portfolio of stocks.

Sunday Randomosity and Kim Kardashian

  • image I am still long stocks since the Oct 15 buys. I haven’t seen a reason to sell and believe that the trend into year end will be up.  Yes, the market is overbought and maybe the run into the end of the year won’t be straight up.  But I think winners will continue to run as folks won’t want to sell them and will want to own them.  In addition, there isn’t another place to put money right now.
  • Kim Kardashian’s butt is pretty unreal.  It’s like an anime butt, where the artist can exaggerate features. There seems to be a fan club of folks who love that butt.  Not that there is anything wrong with that.
  • China’s central bank surprised markets by slashing its one-year benchmark lending rate 0.40 percentage points to 5.6%. China last cut interest rates in 2012. The move follows a disappointing growth rate in the latest quarter. The nation’s economy expanded 7.3%, marking a five-year low.” – The markets love stimulus. It seems like whenever a central bank announces free money, stocks rip.  How long can this go on, though?
  • image NFL Sunday means 7 hours of the Red Zone Channel!  Gee, no wonder I can’t get any work done on the weekends.
  • Josh Gordon back in the Cleveland Browns lineup!
  • Obama goes commando with the Immigration executive order.  I think he was just playing the race card and trying to incite enthusiasm in minority voters by pitting them against what is seen as a “White GOP.”  Although in the election, Whites and Asians voted GOP, and an increasing number of Hispanics also voted Republican.  Hey, maybe folks don’t like to get “Grubered.”
  • Remember when stocks were selling off a few months ago, and the Wall of Worry included things like Ebola, Russia in Ukraine, Middle East ISIS turmoil, and the Green Bay Packers off to a slow start?  Only one of those things has resolved itself, yet the market storms higher.

Tuesday, November 04, 2014

Republicans Take Senate!

$SPY – The GOP takes the Senate, and gridlock will continue. The stock market tends to like it when each side cancels each other out.  The difference will be that instead of Harry Reid stopping legislation, President Obama will have to use his veto pen.

The only way legislation gets enacted is if there is compromise.  There are a lot of pro-growth ideas coming from the Republicans, from the Keystone Pipeline to corporate tax reform.  But it will be hard to push those through the mighty veto pen of the President.

Still bullish on stocks, though.

Thursday, October 30, 2014

#240: market seasonality: the end of the bad season





Monday, October 27, 2014

$TWTR - Twitter Crash!

$TWTR - Twitter stock crashing after earnings this afternoon.  I follow this one and facebook as they both seem to take a lot of my online time.  


I still think this stock plays out over time as the place where folks get instant news and reaction to news.   Dips are probably buying opportunities. 

Just thinking out loud. 

Sunday, October 19, 2014

IBD Top 50 Stocks Strategy – 10/19/2014

Here is the latest on the IBD 50 stocks investing strategies vs. $SPY

imageDespite the crazy hair-pulling volatility, the IBD 50 portfolios outperformed the broad index this week.   For the week, there were 32 stocks up and 18 stocks down for the IBD 50.

ATHM led the IBD 50, up 18.19% for the week.  The biggest loser for the IBD 50 was LAD, down 12.84%.

The IBD 50 portfolios total return since 2/8/2014 are underperforming the SP500. For anyone expecting a bounce or a rally into the end of the year, what outperforms from here?  Will the strategies continue to lead the way in the direction the market is heading?

The portfolio is sold at the closing price Friday night, and rebalanced into the make-up of the IBD top 50.  Dividends are excluded from total returns.

Trading costs $706.45.

image The IBD monthly strategy is mixed versus  the SP500.

The portfolios concentrated in fewer holdings are performing better than the more diversified portfolios. Only the IBD 5 has a positive return at this time.

The IBD 50 has 7 gainers and 43 losers. 

ATHM is the top performer for the IBD 50, returning 12.31%.  The weakest stock in the IBD 50 so far is SLCA, losing 24.28%.

Trading costs $149.25

I will assume a $9.95 trading cost to sell last week’s or last month’s portfolio, and $9.95 to buy the new weekly or monthly portfolio.  (Imagine the costs of doing this with individual stocks, compared to using Motif.  Note that Motif limits the size of portfolios to 30 stocks).

The Top 25 holdings are listed at at Motif Investing.  (A check as of 3/31/2014 shows that the ability to view all holdings is limited to Motif members and IBD subscribers).

None of the above strategies are a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.  These are model portfolios constructed for entertainment only.

This is the IBD portfolio performance since 2/8/2014.  Each portfolio begins with $10,000 and then invests an equal amount in the top 5, 10, 25 and 50 IBD stocks at the closing prices on Friday for the weekly model, and at the closing prices on the last trading day of the month for the monthly model.  Since IBD changes the make up of their top stocks daily, this will only rebalance on Fridays or end of month.  It is assumed that trading costs are $9.95 to “buy” a model portfolio, and $9.95 to “sell” a model portfolio.  Thus, each weekly or monthly rebalance out of the previous portfolio and into the new portfolio costs $19.90.  Daily changes in the IBD 50 or stock rankings are not considered.  Changes in IBD’s overall market views are not considered.  Stop loss orders or other market timing strategies are not considered.  The value for SPY is based on buying 2/8/2014.

Based on a blog entry from Paladin Money.  See Investors Business Daily for more information on the IBD 50.  See Motif Investing for their IBD Top 25 portfolio, and the ability to construct your own portfolio of stocks.

Fox Business Block Gurus Update – 10/19/2014

imageHere is an update on how the Fox Business Block gurus are doing year to date compared to the indices (excluding dividends).  This return is based on investing $1000 per weekly stock pick at the closing price Friday night. 

Larry Glazer has only made one pick, F (Ford).  He lead the league for awhile, but that company has taken a hit lately.

Rich Karlgard has also made just one pick, INTC (Intel). 

Ben Stein makes a rare appearance near the top of the list.  The index trackers seem to be holding up better than individual stocks, and Ben tends to stick to picks that track a market index or are at least widely diversified.

It doesn't surprise me to see Gary B. Smith and Gary Kaltbaum near the top of the list.  I've often thought that those two seem to be the most consistent.  Maybe this kind of study is confirming my gut feeling.

Charles Payne "tends to" pick volatile stocks.  As the market trends strongly in one direction or another, his picks have a little extra beta to the upside or downside.  One of his picks in April, $GTAT, went bankrupt.  That’s a -100% return for this study.

At some point, I will go over each guru's best and worst picks.  Maybe during a lopsided Thursday Night Football game.  (As if we haven't had enough of those...)

image

Nothing shocking here.  My suspicion was that the Cashin' In gurus would underperform the other gurus, and that most all of the gurus would underperform the SP500 (SPY).