Monday, May 23, 2016

Fed Rate Hike Randomosity

  • imageI think it’s tough to raise rates in an election year.  Especially the further along we get in the calendar. Would the Fed want to have an impact on the election?
  • If you’re weighing rates and looming data, then you’re being blamed for today’s market fluctuations!
  • The economic data has mostly been soft.  Maybe inflation ticking up a little.  I wonder how much of that is due to wage hikes pushing up prices?  We have minimum wage hikes and new overtime pay rules.
  • Why is Donald Trump surging in the pollsTrump is quickly consolidating the support of his party, while Clinton's still locked in a grueling primary battle.  I mostly agree with this, and when Hillary finally gets the nomination, Bernie supporters will consolidate around her. 
  • Does anyone like $AAPL – Apple stock?  Well, here may be some good news.  They have a list of things, but my point is that the company is still going to win more and more market share around the globe. Heck, I’m going to upgrade to an iPhone 7 this Fall.
  • I still think Hillary wins in a LANDSLIDE in November.  It won’t be close.
  • I use Open Live Writer to blog.  FYI.  Pretty clean interface.  WYSIWYG
  • Who wants to fly to Hawaii? Have you heard of VietJet?  Well, lets watch the video.

  • Hey! Is it all day breakfast or another move that has been critical to McDonald's success: improving customer service through wage increases and training.  HMM.  So raising prices good for consumers?  …the changes "have resulted in lower crew turnover and higher customer satisfaction scores ... and we are gaining share relative to the [fast-food] sandwich segment."
  • The Freddie Gray case is over.  Edward Nero – Not guilty! So that will be in the news a lot this week. Hope for peace.
  • $FIT - Fitbit facing a lawsuit over highly inaccurate trackers?  Hmm. 
  • Remember when Xiaomi was supposed to be the Apple iPhone killer?

Sunday, May 22, 2016

Sunday Randomosity

  • imageMarket sentiment seems bearish.  Even with stock indexes not that far from all-time highs.  Except for the Nasdaq, where there has been some carnage in growth. But money has rotated into “safer” names for now.  And Amazon.
  • Lets build a park, and fill it with carnivores.  Now that would make for a great movie!  3 Nile crocodiles found in Florida…  between 2010 and 2014, the Nile crocodile was responsible for 480 attacks on humans in Africa … officials say the swamp dwellers escaped from a facility called Predator World.
  • My thoughts on minimum wage hikes and increased compensation via overtime rules reform? When companies face higher costs, they either try to reduce costs or pass along the higher costs to consumers.  So, these laws will probably  mean some combination of fewer employees, fewer working hours for employees, and higher prices at the stores, malls, and monthly bills for consumers.  And combine this with more costs for rules and regulations, there is an unknown impact on small businesses that never get started in the first place.
  • Back to stocks, I think all these liberal/progressive rules are a major factor in the slower GDP growth we’ve seen.  And economic growth fuels the stock market.  Which hasn’t gone anywhere in almost a year and a half!
  • And throwing the first pitch today is Tiffany Hwang from the South Korean kpop group Girls Generation.  Nice throw, Tiffany!

  • Energy experts say oil won’t top $100.  Does that make you nervous? So I suppose what that really means is that we should start to fear really high oil prices again.
  • Angry Birds made $39 million this weekend?  Hmm.  Well, I did get an Angry Birds themed spoon at the local yogurt shop yesterday.
  • Hedge funds unloaded $7 billion of Apple stock in the first quarter.  Nobody likes it anymore.  Should start seeing some downgrades, right? Some are comparing to Blackberry.  Hmm.  Well, I’m not there yet.  I still own it. 

Sunday, May 15, 2016

Feels Like the Tide

The stock market has felt a lot like the ocean tide the last year and a half.  Rolls in.  Rolls out.  But it seems like nothing much is going on.   Cash on the sidelines is doing about as well as a diversified index fund!

The only chance at beating the market has been specific stock selection. Of course, that requires the selection of the best stocks, while avoiding the worst stocks.  So if you're in Facebook and Amazon, that's great!  Biotechs?  Uh, the tide has been rolling out and out and out on many of those names. 
With Sell in May here, I haven't allocated additional money to stocks, other than monthly allocations to an index fund in the retirement plan. (Dollar cost averaging).  My big plan at this point is to wait until Sept/Oct before making stock picks.  I would imagine summer will be a little soft in the market.  
Although, the tide will continue to roll in and roll out. So if one can catch that...

Monday, April 25, 2016

Year to Date Update

  • imageMarket year to date:  Energy! $XLE
  • #FearTWD - I like Fear the Walking Dead.  But I am a little disappointed that they didn’t spend more time covering society’s downfall.  Even this season when they show LA being blown up in the background.  I would have liked to see more stories on what’s going on inside the government and military.  They can still do that with character flashbacks, by the way.   Where were you when… and what was happening when…
  • What a difference from the last check I did at the end of February, when nobody seemed to give energy a chance. Utilities have been hanging on.
  • Technology a bit frustrating, and makes up the largest sector in the SP500.  Financials negative, another large weighting.
  • Steph Curry… Ouch!  Kind of sad to see the Warriors get the season wins record, and then get hit with a major post-season injury.  It’s tough to stay on top!

image

  • One way to think about energy, is that more demand for energy would tend to go along with a growing economy. Right?  Of course, it matters if the dollar is ascending or descending, too…
  • I was one who thought Donald Trump was just a sideshow, and he may take the GOP race after tomorrow’s primary.  LOL.  Well, I don’t want to go out on a limb here, but I can’t imagine a scenario where Hillary doesn’t just blow him out in November.  The Republicans have to hope he doesn’t kill their chances of retaining both houses of Congress…
  • Everyonce and awhile, sometimes, I think I should do some podcasts.  Sometimes I even do one.  And then never upload it.  LOL.
  • Overall, still bullish.  But will move some to cash ahead of summer.

Sell in May via MACD Cross

#sellinmay - For anyone thinking about Sell in May, one method used an MACD cross as of Friday to get the heck out.  I will be scaling out of some long positions this week in tax deferred accounts. 


The soonest buy would be a subsequent MACD cross after October 16. 

The historical returns was written up this weekend at 
Breakpoint Trades.

Thursday, February 25, 2016

Market Jitters

  • imageYear to date?  The Utes!  (And I don’t mean Utah).
  • I remain long and dollar cost averaging.  When I watch the Fox Business Block, Ben Stein often recommends that you buy $SPY “and hold on for dear life.”
  • I also do still own a handful of tickers and $QQQ.
  • It feels like a bear market, but not seeing recession signs.  Sure, the economic indicators are so-so.  Growth is slow.  But unemployment is low.  Inflation is low-ish.
  • Watching the GOP debate on CNN.  Who else is wondering why Carson and Kasich were even invited?  They are out of it…
  • (Wondering if Cruz and Rubio are also out of it!)
  • I think Hillary crushes Trump in November.  Won’t be close.  I think Rubio is the only one who has a shot in November, but he may not have a chance in March against Trump!
  • But hey, the important thing in March is March Madness…

Friday, January 15, 2016

Worst First 2-Weeks Ever

  • What do we make of the stock market collapse early in 2016? Is this the beginning of a recession? Is this the end of Batman?
  • Seriously, it’s not fun to watch the portfolio go down… down… down.  This is the worst “first two week start” of a year ever!  The Dow and the S&P 500 are both down 8.2 percent since the beginning of the year. The Nasdaq is down 10.4 percent.”
  • The opening rallies are sold off.  The high-beta stocks are falling.  Have you seen biotechs?

 

YEAR TO DATE SECTOR SPDR ETF PERFORMANCE

 

  • Yay! Utilities!
  • I’ve been caught long and flat-footed.  I don’t like to sell AFTER a 10% decline (or worse in some names).  I guess I just continue to add, hope, pray, and watch political debates, playoffs, and Netflix.
  • (Say, Jessica Jones is very good).
  • It seemed initially as if the financial folks were trying their best to pick a bottom.  Now, they’re trying to get out of the way of a further decline.  It seems as if we need more bearish sentiment and “get out on any move up” kind of sentiment, before a bottom shows up.
  • (This is where I normally insert a picture of a bottom. You know.)
  • Recession… Bear Market Fears.
  • So there’s declining oil.  Oil is flooding the market.  Way too much supply.  We always thought cheap gasoline would help consumers, but retail numbers don’t show that.  Are folks saving?  Paying off bills?  Paying more for health care and student loan debt?
  • Anyway, it’s a long weekend.  More later…