Monday, April 25, 2016

Year to Date Update

  • imageMarket year to date:  Energy! $XLE
  • #FearTWD - I like Fear the Walking Dead.  But I am a little disappointed that they didn’t spend more time covering society’s downfall.  Even this season when they show LA being blown up in the background.  I would have liked to see more stories on what’s going on inside the government and military.  They can still do that with character flashbacks, by the way.   Where were you when… and what was happening when…
  • What a difference from the last check I did at the end of February, when nobody seemed to give energy a chance. Utilities have been hanging on.
  • Technology a bit frustrating, and makes up the largest sector in the SP500.  Financials negative, another large weighting.
  • Steph Curry… Ouch!  Kind of sad to see the Warriors get the season wins record, and then get hit with a major post-season injury.  It’s tough to stay on top!

image

  • One way to think about energy, is that more demand for energy would tend to go along with a growing economy. Right?  Of course, it matters if the dollar is ascending or descending, too…
  • I was one who thought Donald Trump was just a sideshow, and he may take the GOP race after tomorrow’s primary.  LOL.  Well, I don’t want to go out on a limb here, but I can’t imagine a scenario where Hillary doesn’t just blow him out in November.  The Republicans have to hope he doesn’t kill their chances of retaining both houses of Congress…
  • Everyonce and awhile, sometimes, I think I should do some podcasts.  Sometimes I even do one.  And then never upload it.  LOL.
  • Overall, still bullish.  But will move some to cash ahead of summer.

Sell in May via MACD Cross

#sellinmay - For anyone thinking about Sell in May, one method used an MACD cross as of Friday to get the heck out.  I will be scaling out of some long positions this week in tax deferred accounts. 


The soonest buy would be a subsequent MACD cross after October 16. 

The historical returns was written up this weekend at 
Breakpoint Trades.

Thursday, February 25, 2016

Market Jitters

  • imageYear to date?  The Utes!  (And I don’t mean Utah).
  • I remain long and dollar cost averaging.  When I watch the Fox Business Block, Ben Stein often recommends that you buy $SPY “and hold on for dear life.”
  • I also do still own a handful of tickers and $QQQ.
  • It feels like a bear market, but not seeing recession signs.  Sure, the economic indicators are so-so.  Growth is slow.  But unemployment is low.  Inflation is low-ish.
  • Watching the GOP debate on CNN.  Who else is wondering why Carson and Kasich were even invited?  They are out of it…
  • (Wondering if Cruz and Rubio are also out of it!)
  • I think Hillary crushes Trump in November.  Won’t be close.  I think Rubio is the only one who has a shot in November, but he may not have a chance in March against Trump!
  • But hey, the important thing in March is March Madness…

Friday, January 15, 2016

Worst First 2-Weeks Ever

  • What do we make of the stock market collapse early in 2016? Is this the beginning of a recession? Is this the end of Batman?
  • Seriously, it’s not fun to watch the portfolio go down… down… down.  This is the worst “first two week start” of a year ever!  The Dow and the S&P 500 are both down 8.2 percent since the beginning of the year. The Nasdaq is down 10.4 percent.”
  • The opening rallies are sold off.  The high-beta stocks are falling.  Have you seen biotechs?

 

YEAR TO DATE SECTOR SPDR ETF PERFORMANCE

 

  • Yay! Utilities!
  • I’ve been caught long and flat-footed.  I don’t like to sell AFTER a 10% decline (or worse in some names).  I guess I just continue to add, hope, pray, and watch political debates, playoffs, and Netflix.
  • (Say, Jessica Jones is very good).
  • It seemed initially as if the financial folks were trying their best to pick a bottom.  Now, they’re trying to get out of the way of a further decline.  It seems as if we need more bearish sentiment and “get out on any move up” kind of sentiment, before a bottom shows up.
  • (This is where I normally insert a picture of a bottom. You know.)
  • Recession… Bear Market Fears.
  • So there’s declining oil.  Oil is flooding the market.  Way too much supply.  We always thought cheap gasoline would help consumers, but retail numbers don’t show that.  Are folks saving?  Paying off bills?  Paying more for health care and student loan debt?
  • Anyway, it’s a long weekend.  More later…

Tuesday, January 05, 2016

Stock Returns During Last Year of a President

$SPY – Here are the recent historical returns of the stock market during the last year of a President.

1980    32.40%    Jimmy Carter
1988    16.80%    Ronald Reagan
1992      7.70%    George HW Bush
2000     -9.10%    Bill Clinton
2008   -37.00%    George W Bush
2016        ???       Barack Obama

Nothing to do based on this.  But interesting.

There was the end of the internet bubble and subsequent recession that happened during Clinton’s last year.

George W Bush was hit with the collapse of the housing bubble, and the loans made to people who had no chance of every making monthly payments.

Are we in a bubble now?  Bonds?  Real estate?  Stocks?  All of the above?

Stay tuned!

Sunday, January 03, 2016

2015 Review-2016 Preview

imageI beat the market in 2015, with a 7.5% return.  This is due to an overweighting in $QQQ and also some individual stocks.  The biggest winners were $MCD, $FB, $JD, and $DIS.

I also had a few ugly ones, including $LVS, $TWTR and $XOM (then rotating into another loser, $EOG).  Then I had a few names that towed the line with index, and didn’t do anything other that spit out a few dividends every quarter.

Fortunately, I was considerably overweighted in the better names.

2015 was a year where I bought and held companies I thought would beat the market.  I didn’t chase the IBD hot stocks or take the hot tip of the day.  I didn’t run my market timing model every day. I did raise a little cash before summer and reinvest in August, in a little nod to Sy Harding and “sell in May and go away.”

By the way, had I used my market timing system using $QQQ, I would have made 11% on 9 trades, with 8 of them winning trades.

Heading into 2016, I am fully allocated and remain in the holdings I mentioned.  I think my winning stocks will continue to be winners, although I would expect $MCD to slow down and $DIS to bounce back.  $FB is a big holding and I’m a believer of The Social Network growth.  Of the losers, I don’t know when energy comes back, but know it will.  Cheap energy never seems to last for long.

I think $TWTR makes it.  I don’t know how much money they’ll make or when the stock will get hot again if ever.  But I spend enough time on there to know it’s addictive and a great time waster.  This is a “buy what you know” kind of stock.  It’s just where people go for instant news and chat.  I think the company figures it out someday.  And the stock could be volatile for trading around the position.

$LVS is the ugly ducking where you just never know about the Chinese gambling market.  I’m going to stick with it for now, banking on a continuing growing economy in China and the reality that people love to gamble.  As the population grows, as affluence grows, the casinos will get busier.  The company also continues to pay and raise the dividend, too.

Then, there’s energy.  Energy.  Energy!  This is the amazing topic of 2015, where declining oil prices were supposed to help the economy and give consumers more money to spend.  Where is that money going?  Or, is the declining labor participation rate offsetting that?

Oh, the stocks.  I don’t believe oil prices are going to $0.  As companies cut back on production, eventually supply and demand issues work themselves out.  I rotated back into $XOM and think that’s the place to be for now.  Until things get better, some of the companies where R&D and investment money goes could get hit further.

Overall, I have about 10 stock tickers and mostly index ETFs.  I believe my big winners of 2016 will be $FB and $DIS, with the corner of my eye peaking at $TWTR.

I haven’t bought any Dow Dogs this year, but think $IBM is interesting.

Happy New Year!

Saturday, January 02, 2016

Wayne Rogers

imageWayne Rogers passed away on December 31, 2015.  I have spent many weekends watching Cashin’ In on Fox, as Wayne implored Jonathan Hoening, “Jonathan, shut up and let me finish!”

What Wayne did finish is leaving a lasting impression on me and all viewers across the country who tuned in weekly.  Wayne always came across as level-headed and thoughtful, providing insights into the financial news affecting our lives.  He also did so with a sense of humor and quick wit.

Many remember Wayne fondly from the early days of MASH, along with other TV shows and movies.  I loved MASH!

Thank you, Wayne!