Monday, November 30, 2015

End of November

  • Stocks basically flat for the year.  A sideways correction?
  • Will the Fed finally raise rates in December? 
  • The biggest threat to the planet was ended today, when the MRI on New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski showed no tear, only a bruise.  
  • None of the "sure thing" Fed hikes have happened yet.  So the recent economic news has seemingly been robust enough to increase rates. But there are also some lackluster economic numbers.  We shall see. 
  • Sometimes, instead of a crash, the market trades back and forth in a narrow range.  At the same time, earnings growth continues.  This has the effect of lowering PE multiples and high market valuations without the stomach churning drop in share prices. 
  • Carolina Panthers undefeated, you say?
  • My fantasy football season seems to be unraveling. Injuries and mediocre players.  When you have to sit Sunday morning and analyze which players to start and sit, you have a mediocre team. Should be obvious. 
  • Anyway, I'm still 100% long after going all in late this summer.  
  • Just thinking out loud, but in regard to stocks: Clinton's last year in office sucked.  Bush's last year in office sucked. And here comes Obama's last year.  Sell stocks?

Friday, November 06, 2015

Energy: Selling Exxon and Buying EOG

Selling $XOM and buying $EOG.  I don't want to hold a stock as it goes through a federal investigation of climate change, and if that results in billions of fines or penalties.  I'm scared. 

Want energy exposure of some sort so going into $EOG.  Smaller dividend.  Also riskier.  Should benefit with higher energy prices. If we ever have those again.

Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Sell Rosh Hashanah Buy Yom Kippur

  • Today is Yom Kippur.  Are you buying stocks?  
  • Hillary Clinton killed the biotechs yesterday by lashing out at high drug prices.  Well, I don't want to be bipartisan.  Maybe it was Ben Carson's comments regarding a Muslim President that sent the drug stocks tanking.  Maybe!
  • Reason du jour for stock sell off:  Slowing global growth.  It's always something... 
  • I'm long stocks. Might buy a little more today.  Almost fully invested as it is, so riding this down.  Not too worried about the long term, but looks pretty volatile right now.
  • Colts 0-2.  Hey, out of control beard Andrew Luck, you were supposed to win the Super Bowl!
  • So, Fear of the Walking Dead has been pretty good. Yes, the last episode was a brief pause in the downfall of LA.  Sort of.  I mean you can see that life has changed and it won't be getting better.  But we know how things look a few weeks down the road due to The Walking Dead, right Rick Grimes?
  • Russia is expanding their military role in Syria, as if they paid no attention to how the US fared in Iraq and Afghanistan.  Or how the Soviet Union did back in the 80's trying that.  Tough to occupy a country when they ultimately don't want you there.  The reality is that while this is being seen as Russia flexing their muscles, they will lose some lives and spend a lot of money trying to do that.
  • I think Donald Trump is ruining the election cycle for the GOP.  At this point, the Republicans may have to ride out 2016 and try again in 2020.  I think Rubio is the best chance now.  Carly would be fun, but the Left will hammer her for her reign at HP.  Gee, find a big tech company that did well during the 2000-2003 tech bubble collapse.
  • VM hammered for some sort of emissions testing shenanigans.  I wonder how common gaming the system is regarding that.  I'm taking the over.
  • OK... Home sick.  Going to see if this sucker sells down into the close.  Good luck.  

Sunday, August 23, 2015

Uh Oh

  • $SPY - Well. I bought the dip, too. Doesn't look like that will break even for awhile.  I still have some cash so now I'm thinking ... Hmm, maybe wait a bit on that. 
  • No recession due to a spike in oil prices.  No inverted yield curve. Profits at record highs. Interest rates at their lows and very little inflation.  GDP still positive. Two hour lines at Disney.  So this sell off is probably a correction and not a Great Recession.
  • I liked Fear the Walking Dead. Slow build but that's what it is supposed to be. Heck, in the Walking Dead, Rick is only in a coma for a little while when he wakes up and society is toast.
  • So... At least I bought stocks of companies not going away.  Disney.  Facebook.   Apple.  JNJ.   Maybe they don't go up in a V move, but not worried over the long term. 
  • Havent watched too much preseason NFL.  Hard to get into it versus streaming Netflix shows.

    Been on vacation a lot this month. LOL. 

Monday, July 27, 2015

The Correction

Stocks stuck in the mud all year. Now China is the problem du jour.  From Fed relate worries to Greece to China - it's always something.  

I'm still mostly long with a little more cash then the last time I blogged.  Looking to buy in to an ETF for a bounce. Heck, the market has been down five days in a row.  That's a modern day record!

Maybe this is the summer correction we all knew was coming in some summer down the road, but hoping it wasn't THIS summer!

I haven't traded much all year...  I'm sure it would have worked better than last year.  I do own some of the big 2015 winners and a few sinners, too.  It's a Facebook vs Twitter story.  I believe in both over the next 10 years. Keep adding and adding as I can.  

Enjoying summer. Hope you are, too.  

Saturday, June 13, 2015

90% Long

  • I'm about 90% long. About. Ish. 
  • Believe in a summer correction.  Haven't had one of any significance for awhile. 
  • Want to trim stocks but just can't seem to hit the button. Also afraid to buy anything right now. Crazy. 
  • Starbucks packed at lunch time. Wow. Not just drinks but food!  
  • Summer!  Having our first 100 degrees plus temps. Pool time!
  • Dodgers playing well but can't beat teams like Giants or Cardinals.  Won't be an issue until the Fall. 

Thursday, May 28, 2015

Stocks Continue to Meander

  • The market really doesn't look that healthy. Other than the money chasing the high flyers (tech, semis, drugs, IT security), look at the rest of the mess. 
  • Of course, the Nasdaq hit all time highs just yesterday. LOL.  
  • The market looks so bad, it feels awful making all this money!
  • I'm still long but do have a little cash.  I can't help but think we get some selling down to a moving average just to scare folks.  I have a shopping list of stocks with ridiculously high valuations. 
  • Retail stocks look ugly.  Transports look ugly.  Worth noting. Doesn't that mean demand for stuff is down? Or is everyone only buying $AAPL Apple watches?
  • I think the Pebble Time watch looks like a good watch until Apple gets a few generations into their fixes and improvements.  
  • Dodgers can't beat good teams. Giants killed them with three shut outs.  Now on the road in St. Louis.