Saturday, January 28, 2017

Top IBD 50 Stocks Update

The Dow, SP500, and Nasdaq all finished lower last week.  How did the IBD cream of the crop stocks perform?

image The top 50 stocks outperformed the SP500 index in the fourth week of 2017.

All IBD50 strategies were up more than the SP500 index.

The weekly strategies do a lot of trading in and out of the IBD50 index as the stock rankings shift, as if “chasing performance.”  This could work well in an extended uptrend, but not as well in a market moving down or sideways.

There were no losers in the IBD 5 portfolio this week!  The worst performer was ONLY up 4%!  $JCOM was the worst performer in the other strategies.  $NVDA and $AVGO led the IBD50 portfolios.

image
All strategies exclude dividends in the calculations.

How is the monthly investing strategy for the top 50 IBD leaders do?

imageFor the monthly strategy, all of the portfolios are now leading the SP500 index in the fourth week of 2017.

It’s always interesting to compare how the changes in the monthly vs weekly IBD 50 strategies diverge as the month goes on.

$HQY is the top ranked stock in the IBD50 for the month in the top 25 and top 50 portfolios.  $UBNT is at the top for the top 5 and $EVR for the top 10 portfolios.

Top 50 stock $FFIV leading to the downside for the month. The top 5 strategy has no losers, with $IDCC only up 2.24%.  $GATX is struggling in top 10, and $ANET leading the loser list for the top 25 and top 50 portfolio.

image

All strategies exclude dividends in the calculations.

I will assume a $9.95 trading cost to sell last week’s or last month’s portfolio, and $9.95 to buy the new weekly or monthly portfolio.  (Imagine the costs of doing this with individual stocks, compared to using Motif.  Note that Motif limits the size of portfolios to 30 stocks).

None of the above strategies are a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.  These are model portfolios constructed for entertainment only.

Each portfolio begins with $10,000 and then invests an equal amount in the top 5, 10, 25 and 50 IBD stocks at the closing prices on Friday for the weekly model, and at the closing prices on the last trading day of the month for the monthly model.  Since IBD changes the make up of their top stocks daily, this will only rebalance on Fridays or end of month.  It is assumed that trading costs are $9.95 to “buy” a model portfolio, and $9.95 to “sell” a model portfolio.  Thus, each weekly or monthly rebalance out of the previous portfolio and into the new portfolio costs $19.90.  Daily changes in the IBD 50 or stock rankings are not considered.  Changes in IBD’s overall market views are not considered.  Stop loss orders or other market timing strategies are not considered.  The value for SPY is based on buying at the closing price the last trading day of the preceding year.

Based on a blog entry from Paladin Money.  See Investors Business Daily for more information on the IBD 50.  See Motif Investing for their IBD Top 25 portfolio, and the ability to construct your own portfolio of stocks.

I apologize for any spreadsheet errors!

Sunday, January 22, 2017

Top IBD 50 Stocks Update

The Dow, SP500, and Nasdaq all finished lower last week.  How did the IBD cream of the crop stocks perform?

image The top 50 stocks underperformed the SP500 index in the third week of 2017.

All IBD50 strategies were down more than the SP500 index.

The weekly strategies does a lot of trading in and out of the IBD50 index as the stock rankings shift, as if “chasing performance.”  This could work well in an extended uptrend, but not as well in a market moving down or sideways.

There were two major disasters for the IBD50 this week:  $GIMO and $ANET.  $GATX led the IBD50 portfolios.

image
All strategies exclude dividends in the calculations.

How is the monthly investing strategy for the top 50 IBD leaders do?

imageFor the monthly strategy, all of the portfolios are now lagging the SP500 index in the second week of 2017.

It’s always interesting to compare how the changes in the monthly vs weekly IBD 50 strategies diverge as the month goes on.

$HQY is the top ranked stock in the IBD50 for the month in the top 25 and top 50 portfolios.  $ESNT is at the top for the top 5 and $EVR for the top 10 portfolios.

Top 5 stock $NVDA leading to the downside for the month. $GATX struggling in top 10, and $ANET leading the loser list for the top 25 and top 50 portfolios.

image

All strategies exclude dividends in the calculations.

I will assume a $9.95 trading cost to sell last week’s or last month’s portfolio, and $9.95 to buy the new weekly or monthly portfolio.  (Imagine the costs of doing this with individual stocks, compared to using Motif.  Note that Motif limits the size of portfolios to 30 stocks).

None of the above strategies are a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.  These are model portfolios constructed for entertainment only.

Each portfolio begins with $10,000 and then invests an equal amount in the top 5, 10, 25 and 50 IBD stocks at the closing prices on Friday for the weekly model, and at the closing prices on the last trading day of the month for the monthly model.  Since IBD changes the make up of their top stocks daily, this will only rebalance on Fridays or end of month.  It is assumed that trading costs are $9.95 to “buy” a model portfolio, and $9.95 to “sell” a model portfolio.  Thus, each weekly or monthly rebalance out of the previous portfolio and into the new portfolio costs $19.90.  Daily changes in the IBD 50 or stock rankings are not considered.  Changes in IBD’s overall market views are not considered.  Stop loss orders or other market timing strategies are not considered.  The value for SPY is based on buying at the closing price the last trading day of the preceding year.

Based on a blog entry from Paladin Money.  See Investors Business Daily for more information on the IBD 50.  See Motif Investing for their IBD Top 25 portfolio, and the ability to construct your own portfolio of stocks.

I apologize for any spreadsheet errors!

Saturday, January 14, 2017

Top IBD 50 Stocks Update

The SP500 was relatively flat the second week of 2017, and the IBD leaders played catch-up.

image The top 50 stocks outperformed the SP500 index in the second week of 2017.

With the weekly changes and rebalancing of the weekly portfolios, it seems that the strategies are chasing performance.

$HQY was the top ranked stock in the IBD50 for the week in the top 25 and top 50 portfolios.  $UBNT had a nice gain for the top 5 and top 10 portfolios.

image
All strategies exclude dividends in the calculations.

How is the monthly investing strategy for the top 50 IBD leaders do?

imageFor the monthly strategy, the larger portfolios are besting the SP500 index in the second week of 2017.

It’s always interesting to compare how the changes in the monthly vs weekly IBD 50 strategies diverge as the month goes on.

$HQY was the top ranked stock in the IBD50 for the week in the top 25 and top 50 portfolios.  $UBNT is at the top for the top 5 and $EVR for the top 10 portfolios.

Top 5 stock $NVDA leading to the downside to start 2017. $GATX struggling in top 10, top 25, and top 50 portfolios.

image

All strategies exclude dividends in the calculations.

I will assume a $9.95 trading cost to sell last week’s or last month’s portfolio, and $9.95 to buy the new weekly or monthly portfolio.  (Imagine the costs of doing this with individual stocks, compared to using Motif.  Note that Motif limits the size of portfolios to 30 stocks).

None of the above strategies are a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.  These are model portfolios constructed for entertainment only.

Each portfolio begins with $10,000 and then invests an equal amount in the top 5, 10, 25 and 50 IBD stocks at the closing prices on Friday for the weekly model, and at the closing prices on the last trading day of the month for the monthly model.  Since IBD changes the make up of their top stocks daily, this will only rebalance on Fridays or end of month.  It is assumed that trading costs are $9.95 to “buy” a model portfolio, and $9.95 to “sell” a model portfolio.  Thus, each weekly or monthly rebalance out of the previous portfolio and into the new portfolio costs $19.90.  Daily changes in the IBD 50 or stock rankings are not considered.  Changes in IBD’s overall market views are not considered.  Stop loss orders or other market timing strategies are not considered.  The value for SPY is based on buying at the closing price the last trading day of the preceding year.

Based on a blog entry from Paladin Money.  See Investors Business Daily for more information on the IBD 50.  See Motif Investing for their IBD Top 25 portfolio, and the ability to construct your own portfolio of stocks.

I apologize for any spreadsheet errors!

Sunday, January 08, 2017

IBD50 Lags SP500 in Week 1

The SP500 started of 2017 with a 1.7% gain, but how did the IBD leaders do?

image The top 50 stocks collectively struggled to beat the SP500 index in the first week of 2017.

$NVDA is the top ranked stock in the IBD50 and negatively impacted the return of the more concentrated porfolios, as the stock was down -3.4% to start 2017.

The best performing stock in the IBD50 this week was $EVR, up 4.8%
All strategies exclude dividends in the calculations.
I will assume a $9.95 trading cost to sell last week’s or last month’s portfolio, and $9.95 to buy the new weekly or monthly portfolio.  (Imagine the costs of doing this with individual stocks, compared to using Motif.  Note that Motif limits the size of portfolios to 30 stocks).

None of the above strategies are a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.  These are model portfolios constructed for entertainment only.

Each portfolio begins with $10,000 and then invests an equal amount in the top 5, 10, 25 and 50 IBD stocks at the closing prices on Friday for the weekly model, and at the closing prices on the last trading day of the month for the monthly model.  Since IBD changes the make up of their top stocks daily, this will only rebalance on Fridays or end of month.  It is assumed that trading costs are $9.95 to “buy” a model portfolio, and $9.95 to “sell” a model portfolio.  Thus, each weekly or monthly rebalance out of the previous portfolio and into the new portfolio costs $19.90.  Daily changes in the IBD 50 or stock rankings are not considered.  Changes in IBD’s overall market views are not considered.  Stop loss orders or other market timing strategies are not considered.  The value for SPY is based on buying at the closing price the last trading day of the preceding year.

Based on a blog entry from Paladin Money.  See Investors Business Daily for more information on the IBD 50.  See Motif Investing for their IBD Top 25 portfolio, and the ability to construct your own portfolio of stocks.

I apologize for any spreadsheet errors!

Market Begins 2017 Up!

One week into 2017 and the S&P 500 is up 1.7%. $SPX

I am a little surprised. I thought that once the calendar flipped over into 2017, that we would see some stock selling. People who have postponed paying 2016 tax rates on gains, who are worried about the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates, and who are concerned about the incoming Trump administration.

Eh. Bricks in the wall of worry so far. I remain close to 100% long, but worried and thinking I should book some gains and build up cash for the selling that we all know is coming.

Meanwhile... All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 are up so far in 2017. The health care sector is leading so far, up 2.9%. The utilities are lagging, up 0.5%.

These are the 10 best and 10 worst U.S. stocks of 2017

Monday, January 02, 2017

2016 Review–2017 Preview

I kept pace with the market in 2016, with a 12% return. 

The biggest winners were $T, $LVS, $UPS, and $XOM.

I also had a few ugly ones, including $JD and  $TWTR.

Two other large concentrations held me back a little, $QQQ and $FB. Tech and biotech were a little underwhelming in 2016.  The overall economy has been sluggish, and the Trump win in November has folks wondering what that means for large cap technology companies.  Small caps stocks sure seem to love the results of the election.

My largest position is in $VTI – which acted like a center of gravity for my overall performance.  I also have a large position in small cap index funds which helped.

Then I had a few names that towed the line with index, and didn’t do anything other that spit out a few dividends every quarter.

2016 was a year where I bought and held stocks and dollar cost averaged every month.  I didn’t chase the IBD hot stocks or take the hot tip of the day.  I did the least trading in 2016 than I ever have! I didn’t run my market timing model every day. I did not “sell in May and go away.”

By the way, had I used my market timing system using $QQQ, I would have made 8.8% on 10 trades, with 6 of them winning trades.

Heading into 2017, I am fully allocated and remain in the holdings I mentioned. 

I am still a long term believer in $TWTR.  I could just repeat what I said at the beginning of 2016.  I truly believe this is the go-to place on the web for instant news and commentary.  There was no better example of this than the 2016 election.  I spend a lot of time there.  (@muckdog if you want to follow – I do follow back!).

Rotating back into $XOM worked out well for me last year.  I’m thinking about selling it and moving into some international dividend stock like Nestle $NSRGY.

Last year I thought my big 2016 winners would be $FB and $DIS, and maybe $TWTR. Wrong!

I think $NKE is interesting heading into 2017, but I don’t have any positions in it.

My outlook is that with the presidential transition and after 7 years of a bull market, things could get a little rough in early 2017.  People may have delayed selling stocks in 2016 anticipating lower tax rates in 2017.  Plus uncertainty of what Trump wants to do and what the Federal Reserve will do.  I think we all assume the Fed will raise rates.

Expecting a low return 2017 and remaining long at this time.  May change,..  Follow me on my podcast for more!  (On the right sidebar and on iTunes –search for Muck).

Happy New Year!

IBD Top 50 Stocks Strategy – 2016 Final!

Here is the IBD 50 stocks investing strategies vs. $SPY. This analysis is from 1/1/2016 through  12/31/2016. 

The weekly strategy is investing $10,000 at the beginning of the year and then reallocating every week to the top 5, 10, 25 or 50 IBD50 stocks.

The monthly strategy is investing $10,000 at the beginning of the year and then reallocating on the last day of the month in the top 5, 10, 25, or 50 IBD stocks.

IBD went from Daily to Weekends only in the middle of 2016, so I did the best I could, using whatever the most recent IBD 50 rankings were every week and month when it was time to invest.

Quick analysis:  It’s tough to beat the unmanaged index.

imageThe Weekly Strategy total return for each strategy underperformed the SPY over the course of 2016.  Concentrating into fewer stocks was worse than using all 50 stocks.

All strategies exclude dividends in the calculations.

imageThe Monthly Strategy total return for each strategy also underperformed the SPY over the course of 2016.  But using the top IBD 10 stocks was at least close.

All strategies exclude dividends in the calculations.

I will assume a $9.95 trading cost to sell last week’s or last month’s portfolio, and $9.95 to buy the new weekly or monthly portfolio.  (Imagine the costs of doing this with individual stocks, compared to using Motif.  Note that Motif limits the size of portfolios to 30 stocks).
The Top 25 holdings are listed at at Motif Investing.

None of the above strategies are a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.  These are model portfolios constructed for entertainment only.

Each portfolio begins with $10,000 and then invests an equal amount in the top 5, 10, 25 and 50 IBD stocks at the closing prices on Friday for the weekly model, and at the closing prices on the last trading day of the month for the monthly model.  Since IBD changes the make up of their top stocks daily, this will only rebalance on Fridays or end of month.  It is assumed that trading costs are $9.95 to “buy” a model portfolio, and $9.95 to “sell” a model portfolio.  Thus, each weekly or monthly rebalance out of the previous portfolio and into the new portfolio costs $19.90.  Daily changes in the IBD 50 or stock rankings are not considered.  Changes in IBD’s overall market views are not considered.  Stop loss orders or other market timing strategies are not considered.  The value for SPY is based on buying at the closing price the last trading day of the preceding year.

Based on a blog entry from Paladin Money.  See Investors Business Daily for more information on the IBD 50.  See Motif Investing for their IBD Top 25 portfolio, and the ability to construct your own portfolio of stocks.

I apologize for any spreadsheet errors!