- Happy Thanksgiving!
- The stock market is giving us a lot of reasons to be giving thanks. This has been an amazing year to be long domestic equities. While I am still in cash, I am happy that the economy seems to be chugging along despite much of the naysayers. I hope the uptrend continues.
- It is hard to imagine a scenario where the stock market begins a correction in December. The market has been moving up. There aren’t that many losers to sell for tax reasons. And fund managers will want to make sure the big winning stocks show up on that year-end report. Just thinking out loud.
- Thanksgiving is almost over as I type, and the malls here in Sac are already packed. Many of the stores are opening on Thursday these days. Crazy.
- Football games were okay today. Especially the night game.
- Jason Kidd intentionally spilling a drink on the floor … $50,000 fine.
- So, do I have to put up Christmas lights tomorrow?
Thursday, November 28, 2013
Tuesday, November 26, 2013
- The Nasdaq first crossed 4000 was 1999. Back then, @MariaBartiromo was still at CNBC.
- So that was quite a dump in the last few minutes today. There is this saying that the market rallies during Thanksgiving week and usually the Friday after Thanksgiving. I wonder how much of that is pre-baked into the cake these days to make it worthless!
- Pope Francis attacks global capitalism. “Just as the commandment ‘Thou shalt not kill’ sets a clear limit in order to safeguard the value of human life, today we also have to say ‘thou shalt not’ to an economy of exclusion and inequality.” I think capitalism creates wealth and allows folks to be charitable – as Americans are. We could all do better, but the heavy hand of government is not the answer.
- Paraphrasing somebody, “Capitalism is the worse economic system in the world, except for all the other systems that have been tried out.”
- So is the market still in the secular bear market that started in 2000? Or is this a new secular bull market? I lean to the former, but it sure feels good right now.
- Is Miley Cyrus really going to be the number one phenom of 2013? Lets give that honor to those guys from Holland who created the “What does the fox say?” YouTube video, that inspired parody after parody after parody.
- Still loving the Microsoft Surface Pro 2.
- When is Kobe Bryant suiting up? The dude is practicing, right?
- Paraphrasing somebody, “Practice? We talking about practice?”
Monday, November 25, 2013
- The market looked fairly flat, but look at F and TWTR (Facebook and Twitter). Yuck.
- The Redskins are playing some pretty bad football. So are the Texans.
- I’m still in cash. I keep thinking that the higher the market goes without a correction, the worse the actual correction will be. When it comes.
- By the way, the Nasdaq did edge above 4000 today. The link is to a column from Mark Hulbert (so you know it must be true) about when the market first traded above 4000. Back in 1999.
- You remember 1999: Back then Maria Bartiromo was on CNBC!
- So, a deal with Iran, eh? Color me a contrarian on that one, too. I’d rather stay closer to Israel than Iran. I don’t trust Iran further than I could throw ‘em.
- The best of Black Friday freebies! I love shopping online, by the way. I bought tons of stuff last Black Friday.
- Kim Kardashian. Er, so, she is always in the news for something. Can’t avoid it. But why do we care so much?
- Dancing with the Stars finale? Where has the time gone?
Thursday, November 21, 2013
- The market shrugged off the last few ugly days to make a new move up. It was a nice day to be long. It is as if the market just can’t go down for very long anymore.
- I’m still in cash. LOL. It hurts so good. I’d rather miss a move than be leaning the wrong direction. But I still have a feeling that what comes next won’t be fun. But from what levels and how much higher will the market go? It could ramp up as tired bears give up.
- Health pricing causes sticker shock. Ya think? “Sweeping differences in health care exchange pricing among states and counties is leading to sticker shock for some middle class consumers…” The unfortunate thing is that the sticker shock is hitting the middle class. But it is probably a fantastic deal for the poor. The rich don’t care.
- Contrarian alert! In California, state analyst projects years of budget surpluses. “…California is poised for years of multibillion dollar surpluses.” So, be afraid. Be very afraid.
- Nike is expanding their dividend by 14%. I don’t own any shares. Or sneakers – they hurt my feet.
- Maybe it’s the upcoming holiday or the cooler (and wetter) weather, but I feel like hunkering down and watching movies. You?
- I know I said I was going to blog more and get back to audioboos and podcasts, but… Well, I’m blogging. So…
- I’m tired of fantasy football, but I keep playing year after year. Drew Brees didn’t do much after the first half. C’mon.
Sunday, November 17, 2013
Regarding the bull market, we are either near the beginning, near the end, or somewhere in the middle. We’re obviously not near the beginning as that was in March 2009. So we’re either somewhere in the middle or near the end.
It sounds kind of obvious, right?
But think of the bull market as approaching five years old. We’re seeing a long period of near 0% interest rates, in an economy that supposedly can’t fail with the Fed QE program. We’re seeing lots of IPOs and high valuations on social media companies that lose money. We’re also now seeing money flowing into stock mutual funds.
Granted, we are nearing the end of 2013 and it is likely that the market rallies into the end of the year. I would imagine pullbacks are still buyable, if they show up.
Economic data is okay, but not great. This week should see some more mediocre economic news…
Just thinking out loud as I watch the Broncos up over the Chiefs.
Thursday, November 14, 2013
- Today we had the two most powerful people in the world speak: Janet Yellen and Barack Obama. In that order. Neither pictured, by the way. Oh, I realize Bernanke is still officially the most powerful person. But isn’t he a lame duck Fed chairman?
- Yellen basically said, and I’m paraphrasing, that she was going to make it rain money because unemployment is too high and growth isn’t as high as we’d like to see it. All the time, of course, the Fed was keeping an eye out for problems.
- (And once the problems occur, add in a year or so later, the Fed will actually realize what the problems were).
- The stock market seemed to like this. After all, all that money has to go somewhere and it may as well buy shares of TWTR. Which was up today, by the way.
- Emerging markets really liked this. After all, if the Fed is inflating the dollar’s value away, this is good for foreign denominated assets, right?
- Meanwhile, President Obama spoke about how unaffordable the Affordable Care Act, er Obamacare, was and that if you want your old insurance plan back, you can have your old insurance plan back. For a year. Assuming the insurance company will follow Obama’s directive. And then have to reissue cancellation notices next year. Postmarked after the 2014 election, right?
- I remain in cash. On the sidelines. Watching and waiting. Sitting on my hands. Watching the grass grow. Not that kind of grass.
- So that’s what TV was like today.
- I thought Yellen answered the questions well, without actually answering the questions. That’s the third mandate of the Fed.
- I thought Obama looked beaten up a little. I’m not sure if he solved anything today. I think he just made it more complicated. But, that’s the nature of government programs.
Wednesday, November 13, 2013
- When the Nasdaq leads the way up and the overall market makes a new high, it’s a good day. Stocks had the chance to fall lower, but a late day rally turned things around and shows that there is still a bull bias.
- Heck, it’s hard to imagine the stock market heading down by year’s end. My gut feeling is that the market is higher by year end than it is now. What a bold call! (LOL). With that said, I’m still in cash.
- Obamacare enrollment worse than initial estimate. Shocker. Well, I think a lot of of folks procrastinate. In addition, there has been a lot of negative stories about the website. But you know what they say about government estimates…
- Janet Yellen to defend Fed’s QE program. Ya think? Another shocker! She “defended the central bank’s unconventional asset purchase program, calling it the best way to get the economy back to normal.” Heck, I guess it’s been the “best way” since 2009! One of these days, maybe it will even work!
- The Philippines. –> The Red Cross. Just saying.
- Well, what do THEY say about government estimates? I think the reality is that they’re just not very accurate. They seem to paint whatever picture they need to paint in order to sell whatever the estimate is related to.
- Seriously – I think the main thing QE has done is inflate asset prices. Like the stock market. For example Just saying. IMHO. Just my 2-cents.
- I always think it’s too early to start playing Christmas music. I was just wearing shorts, for goodness sakes. It’s still over 70 degrees here! (Barely).
- After 320 games, the Lakers sellout streak ends. What? Steve Blake isn’t packing in the crowds?
- Maybe Yellen was the reason for the market turnaround today. Mo’money.
- Sacramento Kings are leading the Brooklyn Nets by 12 at the half.
- I do like the Surface Pro 2. I know I’ve said that before, but I’m saying it again. I do wish I could resize the apps in the desktop view, though. Pinch-zoom don’t work here!