Saturday, June 13, 2015

90% Long

  • I'm about 90% long. About. Ish. 
  • Believe in a summer correction.  Haven't had one of any significance for awhile. 
  • Want to trim stocks but just can't seem to hit the button. Also afraid to buy anything right now. Crazy. 
  • Starbucks packed at lunch time. Wow. Not just drinks but food!  
  • Summer!  Having our first 100 degrees plus temps. Pool time!
  • Dodgers playing well but can't beat teams like Giants or Cardinals.  Won't be an issue until the Fall. 

Thursday, May 28, 2015

Stocks Continue to Meander

  • The market really doesn't look that healthy. Other than the money chasing the high flyers (tech, semis, drugs, IT security), look at the rest of the mess. 
  • Of course, the Nasdaq hit all time highs just yesterday. LOL.  
  • The market looks so bad, it feels awful making all this money!
  • I'm still long but do have a little cash.  I can't help but think we get some selling down to a moving average just to scare folks.  I have a shopping list of stocks with ridiculously high valuations. 
  • Retail stocks look ugly.  Transports look ugly.  Worth noting. Doesn't that mean demand for stuff is down? Or is everyone only buying $AAPL Apple watches?
  • I think the Pebble Time watch looks like a good watch until Apple gets a few generations into their fixes and improvements.  
  • Dodgers can't beat good teams. Giants killed them with three shut outs.  Now on the road in St. Louis. 

Saturday, May 09, 2015

Saturday Market Thoughts

  • So, just when it seemed as if “sell in May” was gaining some momentum, Friday happened and the market is now back near all time highs.  Crazy!
  • Reason du jour is a jobs report that, well, met expectations.  Wasn’t too hot or cold.  Unemployment supposedly fell a tick.  As much as we can trust any of these numbers…  I will say I think things aren’t as bad as the bears make out to be, and not as good as the bulls make out to be.  So things are status quo – and, what’s wrong with that?
  • So, Tom Brady to be suspended for up to half a season?  Thank goodness for them and their fans that they play in the AFC East, consisting of a bunch of other teams that seem to be stuck in neutral.
  • I remain long stocks.  I was thinking about trimming on the Friday blast up, but didn’t.  Maybe I will regret it.  But seems like fighting zero interest rates has been a fools errand.
  • Watching the GOP cast of characters vs. the Democratic party’s cast of characters and I’m very worried.
  • Here in Sacramento there are water restrictions coming in.  Can only water lawn once a week!  Maybe it’s time we go full-desert and replace lawns with rock.  Lawns are just a bunch of work anyway!
  • Britain had an election that was supposed to be close.  Or so they said.  LOL.
  • Anyway.  So, baseball season.  Nice to have a game on at most times of the day.  I did renew to MLB and MILB packages.  Always something to watch!  Haven’t been that excited about the NBA playoffs.  Such is the dilemma of Lakers’ fans!
  • Almost done with Netflixing the final season of Sons of Anarchy.  What a great show, but it was time to end it I think.  Like the seriousness and gravity of the final season so far.
  • Also binge watched Bloodline.  Liked it!  Slow here and there, but it builds…
  • I’m not sure what to think about McDonalds.  I own the stock $MCD, but have to say that they face challenges with fast casual competition growing like a weed.  The stock hasn’t done much, but hasn’t really bombed either.  (Although not moving when the market has had a nice run is hard to watch).  Also noticing that lines have been picking up recently locally, but I don’t think it’s as crowded as Starbucks!  $SBUX.

Monday, May 04, 2015

Sell in May?

  • Sy Harding passed away last week. He was one of the "Sell in May" guys who used the MACD to identify a time to sell stocks in the Spring and buy stocks in the Fall.  Sad to hear that he passed and my thoughts and prayers are with his family, friends, and all who followed him.  
  • The market had an uneasy April. Will May be better? So far!  It is tempting to Sell in May.  The market has not had a decent pullback or correction in awhile. Yet, sometime moving sideways for a long and boring period of time eases things.  What to do... What to do...
  • I am still long the market but may ease back a little.  Just having a hard time deciding because Sell in May hasn't worked recently.
  • I didn't watch the fight. Big news is that the fight was transmitted live for free over the live streaming sites like Twitters Periscope. Will the fight organizers go after Twitter?  They say they may go after both the companies that allow the piracy and the Pirates themselves.  
  • The Dodgers playing well. At home, anyway. 
  • The Warriors also playing well. Anywhere there is a basketball court. 
  • I binged watched Bloodline on Netflix. Liked it!
  • Twitter earnings weren't such a shocker, but the way the earnings were released and the investor reaction was.  Facebook had only sold off a little after their earnings, so when the other big eyeball sites like Twitter, Yelp, and Linked In fell so hard, I know it caught me off guard.  
  • Although honestly, I don't "get" Linked In.  It's the site I use the least, no matter who is endorsing me for a skill set or wants to connect. Gee, go see me on FB for cryin out loud. At least I post pics of my dog on FB!
  • Of those I use Twitter the most.  Then FB. Then Yelp. And rarely look at Linked In. 

Wednesday, April 01, 2015

Market Thoughts

  • Heard that April is supposedly a strong month, with the ten days prior to tax day weak but the ten days after strong.  Okay.  Let's go with that. 
  • Market continues to sit near the highs with frustrating pullbacks of just a few percent but not making headway. The 150dma on the SP500 has held recent pullbacks and is somewhere near 2030ish.  Ish. 
  • March Madness... Wow, Notre Dame almost had Kentucky and it feels like that may have been the last gasp chance for anyone to beat em.  Although Wisconsin interesting...
  • Still long the market.  Sell in May warming up, stretching, and heading to on deck circle.  So is baseball season!
  • (Got MLB package, fwiw).
  • Monday's big rally given back the last two days. Churning. 
  • The market can't do nothin since $AAPL - Apple joined the Dow!
  • Got a new job. So. There is that.  
  • Finished the third season of House of Cards.  Eh.  Not as good as first two.  

Sunday, March 15, 2015

What's a blog?

Kind of funny how over the last decade the forum for opinion sharing has migrated from blogs to 140-character tweets. I just noticed that I hadn't written here for over a month, yet I have been sharing on Twitter.  It's probably been over a year since I did an audioboo/podcast!


Anyway...
  • I still think the market heads higher, with pullbacks here and there. Buy the dips should still work.  I remain nearly 100% long. 
  • The Fed will continue to keep rates low. Is there a reason not too?  Is there a danger of raising rates in a world where other countries are reducing rates?
  • Hillary Clinton: OMG.  Really? Isn't there a better candidate over there?  Ugh. 
  • March Madness! The conference tournaments have been great and the big dance starts soon.
  • Hey, I know the money is probably coming in on the UC Irvine Anteaters to walk away with March Madness, but my sleeper pick is that the Kentucky Wildcats come out-of-nowhere and win the whole shootin' match. 
  • I wonder if "sell in May" will work this year, and catch a pullback?  Gut feeling says "yes."  But you know, that could just mean a pullback to some obvious moving average and the up we go. 
  • (Am I too complacent about stocks, in a six-year bull market?)
  • $AAPL - Apple stock joins the Dow tomorrow!  Set your watch!


Sunday, February 08, 2015

Sunday Market Thoughts (and Swimsuit!)

  • What a week for stocks and Sports Illustrated swimsuit models!
  • Ok ... China version ... Mika V is her name.   
  • The stock market had an amazing week. I am still long with only a very small amount in cash.  I think the trend is higher even though the market is now flat for the year!  We are seeing lower energy costs, higher employment and wage growth which is good for the consumer and economy. 
  • Brian Williams stepping down from the NBC anchor desk during the investigation. Lots of folks on $TWTR  and with Photoshop having fun. My thoughts are that if the guy faked a story when his job is to tell the news, he should be fired.
  • Okay, have you seen the "plus sized" US Sports Illustrated Swimsuit model? That would pass for skinny in my office. 
  • $DIS - Disney earnings were outstanding. I own the stock and will continue to add over the years.  Buy and hold forever? Not sure but seems likely unless something changes.  Disney is an entertainment juggernaut. 
  • $TWTR - I think Twitter will be a long term winner but don't own any shares.  I think the earnings report was good. Everyone goes there for instant news.  Although trolling and arguing gets tiresome.  Maybe that's why there are a lot of people who are on Twitter but don't do anything. 
  • I prefer $FB and where Facebook could go over the years.  
  • Energy - my thoughts are to buy energy weakness and be patient. The stuff doesn't ever seem to be low for very long. Some of the names have already had big moves. The only thing I own is $XOM because it is huge and diversified. 
  • With the jobs number and the wage growth number, the worry now turns to the next Fed move and higher interest rates.  If the economy is improving! Taking a hit are stocks with yield as higher government interest rates are competition for utility stocks and REITs. Also the dividend paying large caps could take a hit. 
  • A stronger US dollar has meant that foreign denominated holdings take a hit on the exchange rate.  Of course now that the U.S. Dollar has had a big move one has to think that at some point it would be a good idea to buy as much foreign stuff as possible while the exchange rate is in the US favor.   The world continues to print money and avoid deflation, so who knows when the "right time" will be. Hard to time it but may make sense to start allocating there. I haven't yet. 
  • One of my worries is interest payments on the national debt. If rates rise, so do the payments on our debt as previous debt comes due and we have to refinance at current rates.  
  • Hey! Radio Shack declared bankruptcy! Man, that used to be the place to pick up some odd A/V part or wire before $AMZN.  Our shopping habits have evolved. 
***
Raining here in CA!  We need it but I don't like it on the weekends.  Anyway, it's a good day to watch TV. Maybe $DIS - ESPN.  And binge watch something on $NFLX.  That's what we do, right?